Analysing the options for 757 replacement - …

1 The 757 has been in operationfor 23 years, and a largenumber of aircraft are now ofan age when operators areconsidering their replacement . Theproblem is that the 757 is in a class of itsown as the largest narrowbody, so thereare no direct replacement candidates. Thenarrowbodies with the closest seatcapacities are the A321 and 787-3 and A330-200 are 100 seatslarger, but are the smallest widebodiesthat could be considered. Airlines will therefore have toconsider replacing the 757 with smalleror larger aircraft, operating at similar,lower or higher frequencies than theycurrently use on their route networks.

2 Before considering which aircraft is asuitable substitute for the 757, the needfor replacement must be examined,including the 757 s operating cost trendand disposal options . 757 profile The 757-200 is mainly used on short-and medium-range routes, with seatnumbers typically totalling between 178and 208 in various arrangements. Whileseat arrangements vary, a typical two-class configuration is 190 seats. American Airlines, is the biggestoperator, with an average stage length of1,178nm, and configured with 186 is close to the average for many 757operations.

3 Overall, a 1,000nm sectorlength and annual utilisation of about2,700 flight hours (FH), 3,000 blockhours (BH) and 1,050 flight cycles (FC) isrepresentative of how many 757s areused. Despite being about 33% bigger thanthe 727-200, the 757-200 consumes up to43% less fuel per seat. The 757-300 is a stretch version ofthe -200, carrying about 245 757-300 s maximum take-off weight(MTOW) was increased to 272,500lbs. There are 986 757-200s in servicewith 98 airlines, most of them in NorthAmerica and Europe. Only 55 757-300swere acquired by seven airlines, includingNorthwest, Condor Flugdienst and ATAA irlines.

4 The 757-300 s poor salesperformance is partially due to the 757-300 is also a very long , despite being very efficient and havingattractive seat-mile costs, it takes a longtime to load and off-load passengers. The majority of 757s fly short- andmedium-haul trunk routes in the USdomestic market. It has proved popularwith European charter carriers, since itcan operate across all of Europe, as wellas to the US East coast. The 757 s largest operators areAmerican, Delta, Northwest and West, Continental, National andUSAirways also have large fleets, as doBritish Airways, Iberia, and variousEuropean charter airlines.

5 China is alsoan important market, with Air China andChina Southern operating 42 757-200s. Case for 757 replacement Many 757 operators are split betweenthose that may benefit from downsizingand those that require higher capacityaircraft. This needs careful consideration,since new aircraft will offer operatingefficiencies and lower cash operatingcosts, but will also have high capital andfinancing charges. This raises the issue ofwhether the 757 s maintenance costs areincreasing at a high rate, and if its fuelburn is high in relation to the aircraft thatcould potentially replace it.

6 Besides the787-3, A330-200, A321 and 737-900,the smaller A320, A319, 737-800 and737-700 are all replacement candidates. Maintenance costs The 757 s maintenance programmeincludes a base check cycle based on fourC checks. The basic interval for 1C tasksis 6,000 FH or 18 months. There aremultiples of the basic 1C tasks, and theheavy check at the end of the cycle is theC4 check with an interval of 24,000 FHand 72 months. In practice, most airlines utilise about85% of this interval. With an annualutilisation of about 2,700 FH and 1,050 FCs, the C check will be about every 15months and 3,375 FH, suggesting thatthe C check cycle will be completed aboutevery 13,500FH and five years.

7 Theyoungest aircraft will still be in their firstbase check cycle, but many older oneswill be in their third and fourth. They willhave reached maintenance maturity, andtheir man-hour (MH) and materialexpenditure could increase with age. The MH used for routine tasks inthe C1, C2, C3 and C4 checks during thefirst base check cycle are about1,500MH, 2,400MH, 1,600MH and5,000MH, explains Patrick Ryan, headof engineering and planning at ShannonAerospace. The non-routine ratio for C1and C2 checks is and for C3 and C4increases to The MH formodifications, service bulletins (SBs) andairworthiness directives (ADs) in C1, C2and C3 checks are 200, but increase toabout 1,000 in the C4.

8 Interior workrequires about 200 MH in the C1, C2and C3 checks, and about 1,500 MH inC4 checks. The total MH for the first Ccheck cycle therefore reach 19,060 MH. Given a labour rate of $50 per MH,labour cost for the base check cycle isabout $950,000. This has to be amortisedover the interval of about 13,500FH, andresults in a reserve of $70 per FH for thelabour portion. Routine MH increase in the secondC check cycle, as does the non-routineratio. MH for modifications, SBs andADs and interior work in the second Ccheck cycle are similar to the first C checkcycle, says Ryan.

9 Total labour for thesecond base check cycle totals about23,360MH, which is equal to a cost ofabout $ million, higher thanthe first C check cycle. MH for routine job cards increase25 IAIRCRAFT ANALYSIS & FLEET PLANNINGISSUENO. 42 AUGUST/SEPTEMBER2005 AIRCRAFTCOMMERCEThe 757 has had an impressive history. It has been in a class of its own andoffered airlines some of the lowest seat-mile costs possible fornarrowbody aircraft. Weakened yields and traffic volumes and moreefficient alternatives mean its now time to consider the 757 s replacement .

10 Analysing the optionsfor 757 replacement again slightly in the third base checkcycle, while the non-routine ratio,however, increases to about in the C4check. Total MH climbs to about28,100, says Ryan. Labour cost thusreaches about $ million, a 20%increase over the second cycle. Thereserve for labour therefore increases toabout $104 per FH, a $34 increase overthe first cycle. This is equal to about anincrease in $90 per average flight, and issmall when all other costs are consumption of materials increaseswith each base check cycle, however.