MARKETING POLICY & R A I S I N A D M I N I S T R …

1 2017 RAISIN administrative COMMITTEEMARKETING POLICY & INDUSTRY Raisin administrative Committee MARKETING POLICY & Industry Statistics 2017 - 2018 MARKETING Season As Presented to the MARKETING Subcommittee and Approved by the RAC on October 12, 2017 and Submitted to the Secretary 2445 Capitol Street, Suite 200 Fresno, CA 93721 (559) 225-0520 FAX: (559) 225-0652 e-mail: website: The Raisin administrative Committee is an Equal Opportunity Employer and Provider. In accordance with Federal Law and Department of Agriculture POLICY , this institution is prohibited from discriminating against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the bases of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department.

2 (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form, found online at , or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, , Washington, 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc) should contact Debbie Powell at 559-225-0520. 1 (1) THE ESTIMATED TONNAGE HELD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CROP YEAR.

3 (A) Tonnage held by producers. 6,735 tons of Natural Seedless raisins were being held on Memorandum Storage as of July 31, 2017. (B) Tonnage held by handlers. Packer inventory of raisins as of July 31, 2017, with comparative tonnages for July 31, 2016 was as follows: PACKER INVENTORY * as of 07/31/16 Held Locally PACKER INVENTORY * as of 07/31/17 Held Locally Natural Seedless 158,287121,135 Dipped Seedless 9531,290 Golden Seedless 6,5846,224 Zante Currant 1,9911,666 Sultana 186 Muscat 2424 Monukka 171114 Other Seedless 7,4976,289 Other Seedless Sulfured 653948 TOTAL 176,178137,696 * Includes packed and unpacked in sweatbox tons 10 Year Natural Seedless Carry-in Inventory (Free Tonnage & Unreleased Reserve) Free Tonnage UnreleasedReserve Total 2008-09 106,249647 106,8962009-10 126,824 12,154 138,9782010-11 83,14371 83,2142011-12 110,2062 110,2082012-13 132,0610 132,0612013-14 132,4070 132,4072014-15 138,2150 138,2152015-16 122,9540 122,9542016-17 158,2870 158,2872017-18 121,1350 121,13510 Year Average 123,1481,287124,436 (C) Estimated tonnage held by Committee as of August 1, 2017.

4 The Committee held 0 tons of Natural Seedless reserve pool raisins . 2 (2) THE EXPECTED GENERAL QUALITY AND ANY MODIFICATIONS OF THE MINIMUM GRADE STANDARDS. (A) The 2017 crop harvest timing is normal, and will be a week or so later than last year s early harvest. The quality appears to be good. (B) During the 2016-17 crop year, incoming substandard and quality standards were maintained at the standard level. Substandard dockage has a maximum limit of 17% and B or Better maturity dockage allowance has a minimum limit of 35%. (C) Although raisins produced from grapes grown outside of the State of California are not subject to volume regulations or grade and condition standards established under the MARKETING order, the surveillance and reporting provisions for any such raisins received by raisin handlers will continue for the 2017-2018 crop year.

5 Arizona declared fruit must be validated as produced in Arizona or will be subjected to all requirements of California grown fruit. (3) THE ESTIMATED TONNAGE OF STANDARD AND OFF-GRADE raisins WHICH WILL BE PRODUCED. (A) The Committee met on October 12, 2017 to establish the estimated production for the 2017/18 crop year. The 2017 crop will be smaller than the 2016 crop by approximately 20% due to reduced raisin acreage, smaller bunch count and damage from extreme heat. The production of natural seedless for the 2017-2018 crop year is expected to be the lowest volume since the 1998-99 crop of 240,469 tons. Varietal Type Estimated Production Natural Seedless 230,000 +/- 15,000 Dipped Seedless 1,700 Golden Seedless 16,000 Zante Currant 2,000 Sultana 20 Muscat 0 Monukka 50 Other Seedless 7,600 Other Seedless Sulf.

6 600 Beginning with the 2003-04 Crop Year, the Natural Seedless varietal type was modified through informal rulemaking to include Oleate Seedless (68 FR 42943: July 21, 2003). 3 The 2017 August 1 grape estimate and the 2016 and 2015 final grape crops (in green tons) are as follows: Varietal Type 2017 est. Final 2016 2015 Wine 4,000,000 3,900,000 3,705,000 Table 1,150,000 1,250,000 1,135,000 Raisin 1,450,000 1,750,000 2,007,000 Total 6,600,000 6,900,000 7,200,000 Source: USDA Crop Production, August 10, 2017 (B) Estimate of Tunnel Dehydrated Raisin Production. Production of Golden Seedless raisins in the 2016-2017 crop year was 20,761 swb tons. The carry-over from that year was 6,224 tons. Dipped Seedless production in 2016-2017 was 2,347 tons with a carry-over of 1,290 tons.

7 The Committee will determine a 2017-18 crop estimate for Golden Seedless and Dipped Seedless raisins . (See chart on page 2) (C) Estimated Tonnage of Off Grade raisins to be Produced. Primarily, as a result of the September rains during harvest, there will be the need for off-grade reconditioning. 4 (4) THE ESTIMATED TRADE DEMAND FOR raisins IN FREE TONNAGE OUTLETS. (A) The tonnage of raisins marketed in recent crop years in domestic and Canadian markets, including government purchases, on a packed tonnage basis is shown in the following table: Domestic & Canadian Markets Packed Tons Varietal Type 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Natural Seedless 184,417 202,809 189,725 182,140 196,303 Dipped Seedless 2,8473,056 1,547 4,084 1,617 Golden Seedless 12,486 11,928 13,263 13,364 13,748 Zante Currants 1,5011,439 1,394 1,247 1,500 Sultanas 57532345 37 Muscats 0000 0 Monukkas 71945443 107 Other Seedless 7,1146,353 7,210 11,439 9,441 Other Seedless Sulf.

8 328401212535 406 Total 208,821 226,133 213,428 212,897 223,159 Five-Yr. Average 216,888 (B) Free tonnage marketed in foreign markets during the past five years: Export Markets Packed Tons Varietal Type 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Natural Seedless 108,816 142,757 111,407 98,523 108,503 Dipped Seedless 522499249547 103 Golden Seedless 4,9155,701 5,393 4,769 5,923 Zante Currants 1,2311,434 1,053 1,215 999 Sultanas 0000 0 Muscats 0000 0 Monukkas 0000 2 Other Seedless 1,4092,050 1,206 1,020 1,947 Other Seedless Sulf. 62618652 65 Total 116,955 152,502 119,394 106,126 117,542 Five-Yr. Average 122,504 (5) AN ESTIMATED DESIRABLE CARRYOUT AT THE END OF THE CROP YEAR. The Committee believes there is no longer a requirement for the Desirable Carryout.

9 5 (6) THE ESTIMATED MARKET REQUIREMENTS FOR raisins , CONSIDERING THE ESTIMATED WORLD RAISIN SUPPLY AND DEMAND SITUATION. The export of California Natural Seedless raisins increased by 9,980 packed tons to 108,503 packed tons during 2016-2017 from 98,523 packed tons in 2015-16. The following table shows the shipments of raisins on a packed weight basis for the 2016-2017 crop year. Countries of Destination Natural Seedless Golden Seedless Other Australia 2,119103 93 Belgium 6030 0 China* 8,98811 517 Denmark 1,7720 1 Finland 1,1530 0 France 820 0 Germany 12,10560 0 Hong Kong 1,540124 143 Indonesia 1,51245 152 Israel 7382,273 34 Japan 29,44929 693 Malaysia 1,737574 56 Mexico 2,407198 67 Netherlands 2,68545 0 New Zealand 1,17443 43 Norway 2,6410 0 Philippines 3,50523 4 Singapore 1,338198 7 Ireland 4220 0 South Korea 4,0818 10 Sweden 3,6060 11 Taiwan 4,48167 43 Thailand 3,97699 49 United Kingdom 8,668214 694 Russia 00 0 Latin America 4,221263 148 All Other Markets 3,5001,546 351 TOTAL 108,5035,923 3,116*Historically a large volume of China exports are transshipped directly to Japan.

10 The RAC will be hosting the International Conference of Dried Grape Producing Countries in Monterey, California and will return with up to date statistics. 6 (7) CURRENT PRICES BEING RECEIVED AND THE PROBABLE GENERAL LEVEL OF PRICES TO BE RECEIVED FOR raisins BY PRODUCERS AND HANDLERS. (A) Negotiations between packers and the RBA are being held pursuant to the terms of their contract. Probable Prices to be Received by Producers for the 2017-2018 Crop Natural Seedless $ .90 Per Pound Dipped Seedless $ Per Ton Golden Seedless $ Per Ton Zante Currants $ Per Ton Sultanas $ Per Ton Muscats $ Per Ton Monukkas $ Per Ton Other Seedless $ Per Ton Other Seedless Sulf. $ Per Ton (B) Current Prices Being Quoted by Handlers as of September, FOB Natural Seedless $ Per Ton Dipped Seedless $ Per Ton Golden Seedless $ Per Ton Zante Currants $ Per Ton Other Seedless $ Per Ton (8) THE TREND AND LEVEL OF CONSUMER INCOME.