Transcription of cpLq 1• flWUQ - National Bureau of Economic …
1 I4 BEK MOJK1140 bVbEI 2 EBTE2..LHE O1 Ofill4G IWbOKLVI#ICE Oh COGI1 LLIAE 21C1FF2 114 h*VOE. DEIEBWII4 VBOW. cpLq 1 flWUQ . 1 OPU B /1I!1IU. ELIJJC f'QiA. MOLJUU bbL . WLLIOWVF BuIIE Vil Oh ECOMO1C. TOO CPJ1 Qtt T/Ufl 'iv on N9 LCP. jp bthcL r o W1 BEI cp bLouJ nJ r'po tnqi yuA obiuiou GxbLq tpoc tp UUJJOL niq IJOt tJJOQ O tpC WtOUI B(1 Lfl o ECOUOUJ!C. pA ijnLUU lopu B lli!JIU uq EL9 IJJC ['VAX yjj J4pf LCLJCq 2 JJOLt ccqou oi tGX uot to xcq wo b1iiu1bp2 mA Q dnotq iijtpont GxbJJCTt bcaur2 Jou bLoiqQq tLJTt IJIJJ ccqt CJqu uot!cG ! jAGU tO tJQ OflLC. 218IM nthoW 1qEI avo rbiiM QQl 1HT OMIWO5ID HDHAT51 OIMT IO. 3 VITIT400D JJDI W IOAW. MOITAT4 TMSIHTHU. TDAMTflA. niaU ithb moil owi thnthwinoI 2'viu lo n3rIrnA r1icf Ioort3 ioin w worf &11.)]
2 Okid viJir1o3 2l1b1 bsfl 1iBI bEqcni no 2EW ioI bIo-i- n&n bn nrnow ni 8Q1 nith ni .8 VQI io nmow di ini ni rti nw15t ol oviiino3 l!bk nwicJ 8 VQI bni 8Ql 2 Jnuo3 iol Ith lo rLi 213ni ni r1i muirniq bi3o2 cliiw 'iibno3-ioq .rioiJub W oth work iJdli f1if1 Ioorlo2 ioin 13im lo 3kd viino3 I1b12 bir1 rbum 1llEm2. Jzqcni no pw ow3 TB( iith noiiBubB nJ3rLi no giw xi ii1 .rioiflwbin biirIi5I .1. ncnijM nrLo1 .a fl1 LiW. iJ$ubJ1D 1oorb lo noi3ub tijbsiO lood lo noijjuba blE'rrnH ivinU bicviiH ivinU. El ntiqqA 'W El niiqqA 'W. bi1dfrIED AM 8 ElO biidmD AM 8 ElO. bnB 5 IHM. )InEl1 'v&I. r1rrrnJ3qU lo nEdlU ibui ninniIq 11ur13iM tfliinI lo o!ond33T. O IithomM viiU. bFidrniD AM QElO. i Iuogrrccou bg2 qecqe p-e t'rueaaeq ao-ua bobrr]9L 013 pe o; n ccoLqrIsa o IceLggrrLe cOwG4rrAG oLcrua L9bg Le2 LncrrLrua 111 w9urr9cnLTua TLw2 913g' WOL6 LGCGIJIIX' T 26LA1C6 TLW2 92.
3 M6rr i,ie raxuc r g L9brq IthaL9qTua T occrth9rou9T 2}CTTT. LGdrrrLeuJeuga pg pga rwboLggu rwbj-icgrojja OL pe ugroua acJsooTa (6a 9 Lap9]-J- iig JIIG}C6L' I5) MPTTS JJT8 JJXbOgJJGaIa P92 L6 GGA6 6 IJOLLIJOFI2 g4cG1 JTou' JJGLG 12 2flLbL]-2111a1X TTTe ewbrL-cg LeeegLcp ou pe BKITI2 pg occrrbgcioua IJOM LGdrrrL..LJJG agLouaGag eAqeIJce 2flbbOLTud J36 ruCLeg2Gg qewug OL. ITq Ta gpe apth tae aiuce gp ge ioa ru gJJG. bL6lrITnw OL acjsooriisa (ECCpSTL1J BTOOIIf iq LGewgIJ'. ug rthpX' ia5) g]-GLeLrI cprq o; 6A]-qeIJce Ta gpe 4M6rJk-A6gE TIJCLS92G 113 gTabeLe]-ou o g LiJoIJcL MOL}C6L. aTAGU gae' egrrc9g-ou' a6ugGL uq LCG (gc gug N11thpX raa owe ujka a pgi gthrrGq p9 pr MTJJTu-aLonb te TuedngrgX STGCge g LT2 TIJa bGG O qweuerou2 0 2}CTJ.)
4 !TIJOP26LA6 r pe CfTLLGU obrrJ-gTou rrLGX g g (arrjn rrthpX'. uq Brece' I8a) .LO qge' JJ0M6 AGL' drrgryTggrA6 Le2eLcp pg Mp jqjr wjJ pe pi aLoM]-ua bLoAq6g 6M CJ1'T62 gpoi qGwguq1 uq rr Miflsru-aLorth Mae qrabeL2io cir pe exbrug ru wguX oipeL !.tgX2 (I'6IJ. uq '. Jpe eArqeuce acriqiea T2 GdrTgX ipiarroci H6 LGt 5. qT2crr22roue o L2-Ua 2}CTIT L6dfJL6 WGUg2 IIBrIJA IIIAO]A6 1pe2g bLcgrce 1LW2 EWbTOX5G2 III BtiCJJ ILW2 LOgggG gpLorrap IJfTLJJ6L O q6L6IJ opa' uq L6 GXbGC6q go 6X6LC126 drrigX. cougLo]-' uq aI-iaa62 MX2 O 20JA6 bLOPTGW2 uq TWbLOAG 46. bLOG622 12 brr2P6 JJ9 1J3626 GWbIOXGG2. ic GXGLCI2G aLeeL 21C111 gpn GWbiOXeea T' LW2 oLaIJi6q oua LT0LT2 bL1 IJCIbIG2 fJ 62 TWG2 O 1J36 bGLC6 IJga6 ot GWbTOXGLB 1p9g JJA6 MOLK O )CG P6GL 9gAujga6 O.
5 GWbTOXG62 2}CTTT2 Lnae 1L0W urrwpeLa OO 2W9fl O gec GGOIJ0WX- MIqG MaG beLn2 o urnxipete 1gLa6 Guorrap O TIJt]rIGUcG gPGBG. b6Lu2. in 4 JJTE bgbeL' MG L6boL on eirrqX 4J391 GXWIUG2 MJJG1 JJGL. pg2rc coauriAe 2}CITT2 (2 qragrucg GLOW ecpoo]-J-JJa) gr pecow]-ua WOLG TWbO 9U4 Tn Mae g6gew-Lr-ou on n ecouowX-MTqG. p22 MG QCfl2 on g CGUL drreegrou: p pe wgcpGwgrce TI2 O aLgITgrua pTaJJ 2 CpOO] 96Cg JJG1L Ma62 gg MG )C gp- dnrou L8 OL ecnqeiig MjJo aLgqnggeq LOw JiTap acpoor ILl I5' uq gagrii OL clqeu2 MJJO aL9qnGq LOW pap 2CJ300J Tn I8O X GXgWTLTTIJa JJOM JG WpGwgTc2. 2coLG-Mgas LST9iOUPTb qie PGM6 SIJ cpe MO COJJOLg2' MG cgn dneou: - yLG p2c coanT4rAe )(J2 pecowua UJOLG iWbOLJgIJ in qGceLwruiua Mae2 on gn ecouowX-Mrge pg2r2.
6 - HOM Lurrcp O 4J36 IIJC66 Ill 1136 correae-p]-aIs CpoOj MaG. bLewrnw qnua gew2 tow g Miqenina O. ab pGt4 GGU co11eae aLqfT4G2 ng JJap cpoo aLqnge2 MJJO. 3. qTq uo ao go coijsae II. Dglg MS ijgjXs qg gzo u TouIiX LebEsEeu9 rAe qgpee gjJi CO11iIJ TI10 LUJ97 OLJ 011 flJ6 ]0L IJJ9L]CG O. rrgeu MJJO aLgrTgeg LOW rrap eCPOOTT'1 O CPG 2I MO. 0116. qecgG2 .LJ36 pouairigrii 2flqA 0 gJJG HTaP CJJOOT. (4p.) ou pe poi. WI)cG. GXb6 LTGIJCG2 O 35'23 egiigug MJJO M6LG TL2 rrLAGXq ru M6IJ JJGX MGLG 6 LJiOL2 ]1J JJp CJJOOJ HTP 2 CPOOT ig 3 GAOIJq (HB) bLozrqe rutoLwrou ou 1JJ6 por. W9L]C6 6 XbGLTGLJCG8 o;. II'200 2fT6U L2 BrTLASXGq JJp GJJOO] BGIJIOL2 TU. orr LG peg ou weij xsq MOwGu pJ pG o 2G2 MJJO. pgg cowbeeq pGr. or1u9J- eqrrcgiou gijq MGLG Mo]Tua OL bX 21x AeLa aLgnrua ow -a cjoo.
7 Boivrqe o wbTG wegu irq guqq q6 ATgroIJ2 O 4JJ6 Toapw o Mae (11u T88 gOTL2) OL. wj-G iiq GIJJ62 T" flJG 1M0 qg g 2612' aLonbeq pX jsrape Ggrrcgroug gggiuweug jo gcrTgg6 ' cpe go rucj-rrqe u]-oaon2 qg ow Wcp Gb2 -TLAGX8 ou jj aea egug pX uq -Xex. ojq WIS uq 6 Ltije2 T' Th\8 'Jg T8 . JJJG A6La AJJT62 O 4JJ& ioa Mae qeL owejjgg peeeu OITL. u]-X2r2 awbiee gijq G 2wb]G2' ru bgL4 6C9TI26 gJJG MaG. dfI62 TOIJ 111 JJ6 2nLAe7e qr;;e' fT gpe Ma6 bg6 LIJ2 IIJ OfIL. uX-e 2 WbG aGUGE9J-rx TGCc JJ IJOM [911J1119L bg eLjj c-p92eq 2rrqTe2 O GLuua2 TIJ6df7 JigX. EOL 3f-X6L-0jq LU6 txOa6 pTapG. r pTa cooJ ' cjse AeLae Mae I2 bGLC6Ug TOM6L T'J race jjgu T I\8 -XeL-oq w]-G coij-eae aLggrrge2 qJe MaG M9 OUJX 0136 b6LC61J T06L P. gpgu ru T\8 jj1 2 COIJ8T26LJ MTJ c-p9eg g139]A262.
8 AJJoMrua gjjgg pe corjeae-js-ajj ecoo ae ab OL W9G2 MrgeIJsq qrlLrua JJ6 ].9Q2t uq pg 1 JJG elewweq LrwLTX GLOW. JJ ]-Eae qecrue LG9J MaG O W6 JJTaJ 2cpooJ aLqr1ge2. (paiX gug wrrLugue' raa3). or. -XeL-oq GWgTG2 MpOe JJrape2 GgncgTouj- ggggruweu r pp ecoo aLqflggrou' JJ6 9 AeLa6 tge M2 OITE bGLC6IJ. TOMGL P iaee gju TU T\8 OL -Xe-ojq GWJG corieae aLqrrg4eB cpe AGLae MaG M2 OIJG bGLCGIJ JJrapGL TLT T9. T\8 LPT g1Q f JJ6 aene31 b9I6LU u guX2e2 MJJICJJ JJOM JJ MOW6IJ btJJO qq ao 40 corieae GXbGLIGIJCGg 1G22 O g LGg MaG qGCJ-TLJG 4pu cowbgLgp]-7. egrrcgceq well qrij P6 T8O2 prrc JJSTL Mae IO2 aLorruq LG9grA6 O. poae O corJGae-egrrcg6q MOW6U. IgpTG i ro qr2bX2 JJG G212rwgGq 2gguggLg qeArgroue o IoaLpw O Mae OL 5-?6L-og wg162 uq GWgJ62 ru GgCJJ.
9 Eeg .tAeg pX JJtaJJG24 6qnc9grou9- ggruwGu EOL. 2 GIJTOL2 MJJO qnq IJOg ao bgag JJtaJ cpOor' Dg 4 GLIJ ;Ojjoe T' GB qg4g: MnJJnIJ-aLonb M6 Ag3zTUce T2 LaeI. u iae flJU nj I9 OL pop we uq ewge coIIeaG aLgqnge2 nJ OITL. guXr jjee TTTs qTtteeuce peeeu cje 2. A1.]-gg]-oIJ TU Maea 21X AGL2 GL JJTaJJ 2015001 ]-ou 01. T8O guq aLggr1s2 1 LPT2 e OiJG LG2bGC4 I'S MpTCJJ. 0111. IJJX2] 29 WbJG q;;eL LOLJJ 1J36 CB MPTTG MG JJ9AG UO. exbgugirou 0L pT2 ZY6 IJO6 gJ3g4 OgJJGL LG2 GLGGL2. pge LebOLeq PGIMGGIJ Gb 8 WbIe uq OqJGL. IJTOLT91TA LebLGGIJ IAG qg g 8612 pJ cJJG giLiprIlioLY a;. (c; eoicpnc guq Ia3). MTJJ qje rua1e GXCGIJgTOIJ geecrrpeg gpoAG' JJG Mae euq2. P gpe j4fl5 uq HB S2 OflOM CTO2 GTA gjje bLeeeu II C g9 LJJI2 enaaG2 gp L6jgTOIJ2pTb PGgMGGIJ.
10 W61 TLG2 0 coauT4 TAe 2]CT112 uq Mae2 III 4J3G 111'2.\3 9 IJq H2B qgg 2G4 LIJ9A JJGTb 10 GXbTIJ BGLIJ2 ru c pg CIJIJOg pe GXbJOLGq pGCIiG cpe TiGi cJ4 gcc gLec WG92flLe a;. coauJ-CTAG KTTT2. PS gpeiiz. XGL III jsrap 2 CJJOO' b9 LiCTb9iJ2 ill flJG I'1I'23. uq H2B 2 WbG2 MGLG 9qLin-uTeeL6g G22 o; LGggrua'. uq AocgpnLA ejqa nqug L62 BOIJ2Ge OIl JJGG G22 MGLG. aC9 JGq pA JJG EqfrcfJ-oU Js24rxsa GLAICG rT2rIJa 3-bgLgwegGL. IIGW-I6bOUG 1 LJJGOLA (IBL) woqe co GU2fILG flJ BCOLG8 MGLG. ednggpj-e CLO2B qgg ee' Mgjsru MG CO2G gp IL-2cgGq Iilg4 JJGwgrc2 GOLG g2 OuTL WGfILG O cOaIJrgrAG 2)CT]J2 pGCgfreG JJG. LGfTT42 MGLG GOLIaTagGIJgJ-X Louaer. poe rrerua G2 2 COL62. JJJG wpewgcrc2 62 286B6 grrqeu, Tu torloMrua grLecJ-ou' torcru cgou ug gGc-wJ2t uq iuebterua ITUG aLbJJ (bbGuqTx B 2 OflL O JJG r GW2.