Transport Market Monitor - perseus-web.fr

1 Transport Market Monitor Following a seasonal recovery at the beginning of the year, available Transport capacity has been declining again since March Edition: 35 (May 2018). Proprietary and Confidential Material Receipt of this document constitutes agreement and consent to keep its contents confidential. This document and all information contained herein are intellectual property of Capgemini Consulting and TRANSPOREON and therefore subject to copyright and other intellectual property rights. Without the prior written permission of Capgemini and TRANSPOREON only single graphs or parts of the document may be reproduced or transmitted except with respect to copies made or transmitted internally by the client for the purpose of evaluating the contained information. In the event of such usage, no matter to which extent, the user must indicate that the usage takes place with kind permission of the company TRANSPOREON GmbH and Capgemini Consulting.

2 The information contained herein is considered confidential (its release would offer substantial benefit to competitors and vendors offering similar services). This material includes descriptions of knowledge, methodologies and concepts derived through substantial research and development efforts undertaken by Capgemini Consulting and TRANSPOREON. Therefore, it is the position of Capgemini Consulting and TRANSPOREON that the use or release of the information contained in this document for purposes other than an evaluation of its contents as a basis for internal product direction purposes is prohibited. Capgemini/TRANSPOREON 2018. Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 2. Summary This is the 35th edition of the Transport Market Monitor . It outlines developments in European road Transport rates and includes the This report is the thirty-fifth edition of the figures of the first quarter of 2018.

3 Transport Market Monitor . Each quarter, a In Q1 2018, the capacity index increased by to new edition will outline the developments compared to the previous quarter. Compared to Q1 2017 the during the past three months and reviews index value of Q1 2018 is lower. additional themes in transportation. The price index decreased in Q1 2018 to an index of , which is a decrease of compared to Q4 2017 (index ). Compared to the price index of Q1 2017, the price All indices in this report are based on the index increased by logistics platform TRANSPOREON, which From the previous quarter, the diesel index increased 3%. handles a yearly Transport volume Compared to the same period last year, this year is 3% (different truck types, mainly FTL and higher. LTL), covering all European countries. Information is anonymously exported from The European Trade Flow Index is expected to increase by the platform and aggregately analyzed by in Q1 2018. Capgemini Consulting.

4 These are the conclusions of the Transport Market Monitor by TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting, a quarterly publication, which aims to track Transport Market dynamics. The figures in the Transport Market Monitor date back to January 2008: the earliest point of measurement of the index figures. For all indices, the average figures of the six months period January 2008 till June 2008 (H1 2008) have been set as the basis for comparison (Index 100). Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 3. Capacities slightly below previous year's level This section of the Transport Market Monitor outlines the quarterly developments of the price and capacity index, since the The price index is calculated by beginning of the measurements in 2008 until the first quarter of comparing the average price per 2018. kilometer over time. In Q1 2018, the capacity index increased by to , compared to the previous quarter (index ).

5 In Q1 2017 the capacity index was , which means the index value for Q1. The Capacity Index is an indicator for 2018 is lower than last year's. available capacity , the ratio between absolute demand and capacity. The The price index (see Figure 1) decreased in Q1 2018 to an index capacity index is calculated by comparing of , which is a decrease of compared to Q4 2017. the average number of bids in response (index ). Compared to the price index of Q1 2017, the price to a Transport request over time. index increased by Figure 1: Price and capacity index, quarterly (Q1 2012 Q1 2018). Price and capacity index (quarterly figures). 110 107,9 130. 104,9. 105 120. 100,6 100,0 101,2 100,6 101,2 101,8. 99,4 100,0 100,0 99,4. 100 98,2 98,2 98,2 110. 96,3. Capacity index 94,5 95,1 94,5. Price index 95 92,7 92,1 100. 91,5 91,5. 90,2. 90 90. 86,0. 85 80. 80 70. 75 60. 70 50. Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317 Q118. Price index Capacity index For the price and capacity indices, the average figures of the six months period January 2008 till June 2008.

6 Have been set as the basis for comparison (Index 100). Figure 1 shows the indices of the last 25 quarters. Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 4. Price and capacity follow a known pattern This section of the Transport Market Monitor depicts the monthly developments in the price and capacity index over the last twelve months. In Q1 2018, the capacity index showed significant growth, with a peak in February 2018 with an index of In March, however, the index value fell again to , which is in line with Q1. 2017. The price index showed a declining, but fluctuating pattern, with January 2018 showing a decrease of compared to December 2017, and February dropping even further to , another drop of In contrast, March increased again by 7%. The year has started off with the highest capacity index and lowest price seen in the past 12 months. However, reflecting on the past years, a recurring trend seems to be that the first two months of the year show the highest capacity index of the year and lower prices.

7 Figure 2: Price and capacity index, monthly (April 2017 March 2018). Price and capacity index (month by month). 120 140. 115 130. 120. 110. Capacity index Price index 110. 105. 100. 100. 90. 95. 80. 90. 70. 85 60. 80 50. Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 Feb18 Mar18. Price index 100,6 99,4 103,7 101,2 96,3 107,3 113,4 104,3 104,9 95,1 87,2 93,3. Capacity index 63,8 66,4 66,8 69,1 78,2 56,7 61,1 80,2 75,8 97,3 131,9 105,7. Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 5. Figure 3 compares the monthly development of the price index over the last twelve months, to the same period one year before. In Q1 2018, the downward trend has continued from Q4 2017. This trend is very similar to the same period in 2017. While the trend is the same, the average price of January, February and March is higher than the previous year. Figure 3: Price index comparison, monthly (April 2017-March 2018).

8 Price index comparison 120. 115. 110. 105. Price index 100. 95. 90. 85. 80. 75. 70. Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr. '16 - Mar. '17 (Price index same period, last year) Apr. '17 - Mar. '18 (Price index last 12 months). 15,9. 15 12,8. 9,1 8,7. 10 7,3 7,9 7,3 7,3 6,7. 4,9 4,3. 5. 0. -0,6. -5. -10. Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Difference in index points Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 6. Figure 4 compares the monthly development of the capacity index during the previous twelve months to the same period one year before. Whereas the previous quarter showed a lower capacity index, this quarter was very similar to the same period last year. Figure 4: Capacity index comparison, monthly (April 2017 - March 2018). Capacity index comparison 140. 130. 120. Capacity index 110. 100. 90. 80. 70. 60. 50. Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '16 Mar.

9 '17 (Capacity index same period, last year) Apr. '17 Mar. '18 (Capacity index last 12 months). 25. 15. 5. -5. -3,4 -0,7 -1,0. -15 -5,0. -25 -17,8 -15,8 -16,4. -20,1. -35 -26,2. -31,9 -29,2. -34,2. Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Difference in indexpoints Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 7. Industry focus General economic conditions apply to most industries, but trends may be stronger or weaker in individual industries. Analysis of the The TRANSPOREON platform handles price index by the type of industry identifies these differences, Transport for almost all industries. For the visualized in Figure 5. Transport Market Monitor , three different industry types have been analyzed Although the previous quarter showed growth, Q1 2018 shows a individually. decline across all industries. A noticeable decline is in the paperboard/paper material. Having ended the year with the Each chart in Figure 5 depicts the price highest index, Q1 2018 shows a decline of almost 16% compared development for that particular industry, to last quarter.

10 Indexed against the industry baseline (H1 2008). The construction materials industry price index decreased from to points. In the timber industry, the price index declined by to an index of Figure 5: Price index for different industries (Q1 2008 Q1 2018). 120. Price index Construction materials Price index 110. 100. 90. 80. 70. Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317 Q118. Construction Materials 120. Price index Timber Price index 110. 100. 90. 80. 70. Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317 Q118. Timber 120. Price index Paperboard / Paper material Price index 110. 100. 90. 80. 70. Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317 Q118. Paperboard / Paper material Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 8. Price difference is comparable to previous years This section outlines Transport dynamics, by analyzing the price difference between the highest and the lowest price offered per Transport order.