Swedish MK1 diesel versus European EN 590 diesel …

1 SLB 8:2012. Swedish MK1 diesel versus European EN 590 diesel . comparing the impact on emissions and health risks in the metropolitan area of stockholm A report for the Swedish Transport Administration by Christer Johansson1, Lars Burman Environment and Health Administration of stockholm (SLB analys). 1 also at Department of Applied Environmental Science, stockholm university, SE-10691 stockholm , Sweden. and Annika Hanberg, Ulla Stenius, Marika Berglund Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, SE-171 77 stockholm , Sweden. ENVIRONMENT AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION. stockholm , SEPTEMBER 2012. Swedish MK1 diesel versus European EN 590 diesel Contents Abbreviations .. 3. Summary .. 4. Background and objectives .. 6. Methods .. 6. Air quality 6. Population exposure.

2 7. Emission scenarios .. 7. Emission from diesel passenger cars and light duty vans .. 7. emissions from heavy duty vehicles (HDV) .. 8. Vehicle composition .. 9. Population weighted exposure ..14. Health impacts ..17. Effect of exposures on cancer ..18. Discussion of health impacts estimates and uncertainties ..19. Acknowledgements ..21. References ..21. Appendix 1. Vehicle composition and emission Vehicle share trucks and Emission factors trucks and Weighted emission factors for Greater stockholm ..27. Appendix 2. Road traffic emissions with MK1 and EN590 diesel ..28. Total emissions for Greater stockholm ..28. 2010 ..28. 2015 ..28. 2020 ..28. Heavy duty vehicle emissions ..29. 2010 ..29. 2015 ..29. 2020 ..29. Vehicle share for diesel passenger cars ..29. Emission factors diesel passenger cars.

3 30. 1. Swedish MK1 diesel versus European EN 590 diesel Weighted emission factors of diesel passenger cars for Greater stockholm ..31. Total emissions from LDV diesel vehicles (incl diesel passenger cars) for Greater stockholm ..32. 2010 ..32. 2015 ..32. 2020 ..32. 2. Swedish MK1 diesel versus European EN 590 diesel Abbreviations Abbreviation (in Explanation alphabetic order). BaP Benzo[a]pyrene. A polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. CO Carbon monoxide. DB[a,l]P Dibenzo[a,l]pyrene. A polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. DPF diesel particle filter. Exhaust aftertreatment, reduces particle emissions . EGR Exhaust gas recirculation. Exhaust after treatment technique; reduces NOx formation due to lower combustion temperature and lower oxygen concentration. EN590 A European diesel fuel quality introduced in 1993.

4 It has undergone several revisions (1999, 2004 and 2009) that have reduced the sulphur content from 2000 mg/kg to 10 mg/kg. HBEFA Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport. Provides emission factors for all current vehicle categories (cars, LDV, HDV, urban buses, coaches and motor cycles), each divided into different categories, for a wide variety of traffic situations. Emission factors for all regulated and the most important non-regulated pollutants as well as fuel consumption and CO2 are included. HC Hydrocarbons. HDV Heavy duty vehicles. Includes trucks and busses. LDV Light duty vehicles. Includes cars and light duty vans and busses. MK1 diesel Milj klass 1 diesel . Environmental Class 1 diesel , introduced 1991 according to the requirements defined in SS. 15 54 35 (e g max 10 mg sulphur per kg diesel and vol%.)

5 PAH). It has undergone several revisions. NOx Nitrogen oxides. Sum of nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). PAH Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. In this report PAH is the sum of 18 different compounds. SCR Selective Catalytic Reduction. Exhaust after treatment technique; reduces NOx to nitrogen (N2). TEF Toxic equivalence factor. In this report TEF values for individual PAH are relative to BaP (with a TEF value of 1). TEQ Toxic equivalence. In this report it is the product of a TEF. factor for a specific compound and its concentration. The toxicity of a mixture of PAH compounds is expressed in a single number, TEQ for PAH, as the sum of all products of the concentration and TEF values for all individual PAHs. 3. Swedish MK1 diesel versus European EN 590 diesel Summary The objective of this project was to determine the effect on the exposure and health of the population in the metropolitan area of stockholm of a change in diesel fuel quality of the road traffic, from Swedish Environmental Class 1 (MK1) to European EN 590 (MK3, called EN590 below).

6 The project has been financed by the Swedish Transport Administration and is part of an assignment by the Swedish Government to assess the effects of an introduction of European EN 590 diesel in Sweden. The air pollution exposure of the population in Greater stockholm area (1 628 528. people) due to road traffic emissions have been calculated for a scenario with all diesel being MK1 and a scenario with all diesel being EN590. The models and the emission database of the stockholm and Uppsala Air Quality Management Association were used. Emission factors were obtained from i) a literature study, ii) The Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA version ), iii) chassis dynamometer measurements on two trucks by AVL MTC Motor Test Center AB (Haninge) and, iv). chassis dynamometer measurements on cars by Ecotraffic ERD AB (Nacka).

7 Total emissions from road traffic (including gasoline fuelled vehicles emissions ) and population exposures were calculated for 2010, 2015 and 2020, with vehicle composition obtained from the Swedish Transport Administration. For NOx, exhaust-PM, sum of 18 PAHs, benzo[a]pyrene, dibenzo[a,l]pyrene, acrolein and 1,3-butadiene, total road traffic emissions will decrease from 2010 to 2020. Replacing Swedish MK1 diesel with European EN590 will lead to higher emissions for all these species during all years (2010, 2015 and 2020). For some compounds both heavy duty diesel vehicles and light duty diesel vehicles have higher emissions with EN590 as compared to MK1. In some cases differences in emissions are insignificant or there is not enough information to judge if there is a difference.

8 An example of the latter is benzene, for which results from different tests show very small differences compared to the variability between measurements using the same diesel quality. In most cases, the difference in population exposure with MK1 and EN590 diesel is small compared to the total concentrations due to all road traffic emissions ; a few percent. Highest impact is seen for exhaust-PM with an increase of 17%, 15% and 12% of the total local road traffic contribution when EN590 is used in 2010, 2015 and 2020, respectively. The impact of the increased exposure on cancer risk and mortality among the population of Greater stockholm , is estimated using different methodologies to illustrate the uncertainties in such estimates. With NOx as indicator of mortality due to road traffic exhaust, and relative mortality risks (RR) from an epidemiological study in Oslo, the number of premature deaths is estimated to increase by 36, 23 and 15 per year for 2010, 2015 and 2020, respectively.

9 Using exhaust-PM as indicator for exposures and RR for from a study in Los Angeles, the number of deaths would increase by 6, 3 and 2. 4. Swedish MK1 diesel versus European EN 590 diesel for 2010, 2015 and 2020, respectively. The total number of cancer incidents due to increased PAH exposures is estimated to be 53, 39 and 29 in 2010, 2015 and 2020. The estimates using NOx and as indicators of mortality should not be added, but considered as different ways to estimate the impact of increased traffic exhaust exposure on mortality. The number of premature deaths based on the study in Oslo (using NOx as indicator) is based on all-cause mortality, including deaths in lung cancer that may have been due to exposure to PAH from road traffic emissions . If all of the cancer incidents due to PAH would be lung cancer (with low rate of survival), one would expect that the estimated number of deaths based on NOx to be much higher, since there are many more cancer incidents due PAH than premature deaths with NOx as indicator.

10 The reason for the difference is not known, but it may be that NOx is not a good indicator in this case or simply because of uncertainties involved in the different methodologies of estimating mortality. But, despite these uncertainties, it may safely be concluded that the replacement of all MK1 diesel with European EN 590 is expected to have significant impact on the health of the population, with effects on both cancer incidence and cardiovascular mortality. In addition, there may be significant effects on respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity, but this has not been assessed in this study. 5. Swedish MK1 diesel versus European EN 590 diesel Background and objectives Sweden has introduced environmental classification of diesel fuels and from early 1990s the cleanest of those diesel fuels, Swedish Environmental Class 1 (MK1) according to SS 15 54 35, have dominated the Swedish market.