1. ENERGY SCENARIO

1 1 Bureau of ENERGY Efficiency1. ENERGY SCENARIOS yllabusEnergy SCENARIO :Commercial and Non-Commercial ENERGY , Primary ENERGY Resources,Commercial ENERGY Production, Final ENERGY consumption , ENERGY Needs of GrowingEconomy, Long Term ENERGY SCENARIO , ENERGY Pricing, ENERGY Sector Reforms, Energyand Environment: Air Pollution, Climate Change, ENERGY Security, ENERGY Conservationand its Importance, ENERGY Strategy for the Future, ENERGY Conservation Act-2001 and IntroductionEnergy is one of the major inputs for the economic development of any country. In the case ofthe developing countries, the ENERGY sector assumes a critical importance in view of the ever-increasing ENERGY needs requiring huge investments to meet them.

2 ENERGY can be classified into several types based on the following criteria: Primary and Secondary ENERGY Commercial and Non commercial ENERGY Renewable and Non-Renewable ENERGY Primary and Secondary EnergyPrimary ENERGY sources arethose that are either found orstored in nature. Common pri-mary ENERGY sources are coal,oil, natural gas, and biomass(such as wood). Other primaryenergy sources availableinclude nuclear ENERGY fromradioactive substances, thermalenergy stored in earth's interi-or, and potential ENERGY due toearth's gravity. The major pri-mary and secondary energysources are shown in Figure ENERGY sources aremostly converted in industrialutilities into secondary energysources; for example coal, oilor gas converted into steamFigure Major Primary and Secondary Sources1.

3 ENERGY Scenario2 Bureau of ENERGY Efficiencyand electricity. Primary ENERGY can also be used directly. Some ENERGY sources have non-ener-gy uses, for example coal or natural gas can be used as a feedstock in fertiliser ENERGY and Non Commercial EnergyCommercial EnergyThe ENERGY sources that are available in the market for a definite price are known as commer-cial ENERGY . By far the most important forms of commercial ENERGY are electricity, coal andrefined petroleum products. Commercial ENERGY forms the basis of industrial, agricultural,transport and commercial development in the modern world.

4 In the industrialized countries,commercialized fuels are predominant source not only for economic production, but also formany household tasks of general : Electricity, lignite, coal, oil, natural gas ENERGY The ENERGY sources that are not available in the commercial market for a price are classified asnon-commercial ENERGY . Non-commercial ENERGY sources include fuels such as firewood, cattledung and agricultural wastes, which are traditionally gathered, and not bought at a price usedespecially in rural households. These are also called traditional fuels. Non-commercial energyis often ignored in ENERGY : Firewood, agro waste in rural areas; solar ENERGY for water heating, electricitygeneration, for drying grain , fish and fruits; animal power for transport, threshing, lifting waterfor irrigation, crushing sugarcane; wind ENERGY for lifting water and electricity generation.

5 And Non-Renewable EnergyRenewable ENERGY is ENERGY obtained from sources that are essentially inexhaustible. Examplesof renewable resources include wind power, solar power, geothermal ENERGY , tidal power andhydroelectric power (See Figure ). The most important feature of renewable ENERGY is that itcan be harnessed without the release of harmful pollutants. Non-renewable ENERGY is the conventional fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, which arelikely to deplete with Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy1. ENERGY Scenario3 Bureau of ENERGY Global Primary ENERGY Reserves*CoalThe proven global coal reserve was estimated to be 9,84,453 milliontonnes by end of 2003.

6 The USA had the largest share of the globalreserve ( ) followed by Russia ( ), China ( ). Indiawas 4thin the list with global proven oil reserve was estimated to be 1147 billion barrels by the end of 2003. SaudiArabia had the largest share of the reserve with almost 23%. (One barrel of oil is approximately 160 litres)GasThe global proven gas reserve was estimated to be 176 trillion cubic metresby the end of 2003. The Russian Federation had the largest share of thereserve with almost 27%.(*Source: BP Statistical Review of World ENERGY , June 2004)World oil and gas reserves are estimated at just 45 years and 65years respectively.

7 Coal is likely to last a little over 200 yearsGlobal Primary ENERGY ConsumptionThe global primary ENERGY consumption at the end of 2003 was equivalent to 9741 milliontonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). The Figure shows in what proportions the sources men-tioned above contributed to this global Global Primary ENERGY Consumption1. ENERGY Scenario4 Bureau of ENERGY EfficiencyThe primary ENERGY consumption for few of the developed and developing countries are shownin Table It may be seen that India's absolute primary ENERGY consumption is only 1/29th ofthe world, 1/7th of USA, 1 time of Japan but , , times that of Canada, Franceand PRIMARY ENERGY consumption BY FUEL.

8 2003In Million tonnes oil Federation Kingdom WORLD Distribution Between Developed and Developing CountriesAlthough 80 percent of the world's popula-tion lies in the developing countries (a four-fold population increase in the past 25 years),their ENERGY consumption amounts to only 40percent of the world total ENERGY consump-tion. The high standards of living in thedeveloped countries are attributable to high- ENERGY consumption levels.

9 Also, the rapidpopulation growth in the developing coun-tries has kept the per capita ENERGY consump-tion low compared with that of highly indus-trialized developed countries. The world average ENERGY consumption per person is equivalentto tonnes of coal. In industrialized countries, people use four to five times more than theworld average, and nine times more than the average for the developing countries. An Americanuses 32 times more commercial ENERGY than an : ENERGY Distribution Between D evelopedand Developing Countries1. ENERGY Scenario5 Bureau of ENERGY Indian ENERGY ScenarioCoal dominates the ENERGY mix in India, contributing to 55% of the total primary ENERGY pro-duction.

10 Over the years, there has been a marked increase in the share of natural gas in prima-ry ENERGY production from 10% in 1994 to 13% in 1999. There has been a decline in the shareof oil in primary ENERGY production from 20% to 17% during the same period. ENERGY SupplyCoal SupplyIndia has huge coal reserves, at least 84,396 million tonnes of proven recoverable reserves (atthe end of 2003). This amounts to almost of the world reserves and it may last for about230 years at the current Reserve to Production (R/P) ratio. In contrast, the world's proven coalreserves are expected to last only for 192 years at the current R/P (R/P) ratio- If the reserves remaining at the end of the year are dividedby the production in that year, the result is the length of time that the remaining reserves wouldlast if production were to continue at that is the fourth largest producer of coal and lignite in the world.