111025 yamashita paper - canon-igs.org

1 TPP .. TPP .. TPP .. TPP .. TPP TPP.. 1.. TPP .. 4.. 5.. 5.. 7.. 10.. 12.. 16. TPP .. 18. TPP .. 19.. 19.. 19. TPP .. 21.. 21. TPP .. 21.. 26.. 28.. 29.. 30.. 31. TPP .. 32.. 34.. 34.. 34.. 37.. 37.. 37.. 38.. 38.. 38.. 39.. 40. 2.. 41.. 43.. 43. TPP .. 43.. 44.. 45.. 47.. 54. 3. TPP . TPP 2006 .. 1 Trans Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership 9 . P4 4 . P4 P4 2 .. EPA .. 2008 TPP . 2009 12 TPP . 4 . TPP . TPP APEC FTAAP . 2 . TPP . 4 P4 . 9 TPP FTAAP.. TPP .. WTO .. 1 FTA .. EPA . 2 ASEAN 3 ASEAN. 6 2010 APEC APEC . 3 FTAAP . 4. TPP .. GDP .. ASEAN 3 .. ASEAN 6 ASEAN 3 . 6 .. TPP . TPP . SOE: State Owned Enterprises.

2 A shadow negotiator .. TPP . TPP . 3 TPP FTA ASEAN+3 .. TPP .. TPP .. 3 TPP 2 FTAAP.. TPP .. WTO . 5.. TPP . TPP . TPP FTAAP .. 80 90 .. 301 4 .. WTO .. TPP .. TPP .. TPP . TPP .. TPP .. 4 .. 301 . 3 .. 6. FTAAP TPP ASEAN+3. FTA . FTAAP . FTAAP .. WTO TPP FTA. TPP . WTO .. WTO . WTO.. WTO WTO . WTO+ .. G4 EU . 9 . 13 21 125 . EU .. 150 . WTO . WTO .. WTO .. TPP . TPP .. 7.. TPP APEC FTAAP .. TPP . TPP WTO . WTO .. TPP . WTO WTO. WTO+ TPP . WTO . TPP TPP . WTO .. TPP . TPP .. TPP . 5 . WTO+ .. TPP SPS .. TBT .. TPP .. 5 .. TPP .. 8.. TPP .. WTO TRIM 3 . 11 .. TPP. WTO TRIM .. TPP .. ISDS . WTO .. TPP.

3 WTO . P4 . WTO . TPP .. 9. 6 . TPP . WTO . TPP .. TPP . TPP . TPP .. GDP .. WTO .. 90% . 83% TPP .. WTO .. EU . WTO . EU . 6 150 . 1,250 . 1,300 . 2 1 . 500 300 .. 10. 7 .. EU . WTO .. TPP . 8 . TPP . TPP 9 .. 1999 8% .. 5% . TPP .. TPP .. 7 WTO .. 8 TPP .. 9 .. 11.. TPP . TPP APEC FTAAP . TPP .. TPP .. 1990 2008 . 2020 GDP .. 12.. 2020 GDP . 60,000. 50,000. 40,000. 30,000. 20,000. 10,000. 0. GDP 16% . 10 OECD31 30 30 . 24 TPP . TPP .. 2% . 2% 3% .. 4% 11 . 10 GDP .. 2011 23 127 128 . 11 2010 . 54 62 .. 13. GDP . 14 /GDP 10 . 12 /GDP . 10 /GDP . 8 6 4 2 0 .. 100. 90.. 80.. 70. 60. 50. 40. 2006 2009. 14.

4 TPP .. 12 .. 13 TPP .. TPP .. TPP .. 12 .. 13 TPP . made in A made in B .. 15.. TPP . GDP TPP . 10 GDP 110 14 .. 2008 .. TPP.. the terms of trade .. 14 133 . 16.. 15.. OECD . 5% .. 14% 86% .. 15 1997 147 . 17. TPP .. TPP . TPP .. EU .. 16 . TPP . 17 .. EU .. TPP TPP .. TPP .. 16.. 17. TPP .. 18. TPP .. EU .. 18 . 25% 9% EU . 14% 10% EU . EU . WTO . EU .. WTO .. TPP EU .. TPP . EU .. TPP EU . EU . TPP .. TPP .. TPP .. 18 1996 . 2001 . 19. FTA .. 19 . 20% .. 19.. TPP .. 20. TPP . TPP .. TPP . TPP GDP . 96% . TPP GDP . TPP . 20 TPP FTA .. GDP .. 21 .. 5% .. TPP . GDP TPP .. TPP APEC . TPP TPP FTA.. 20.

5 GDP . 21 .. 21. 2010 .. 19%. 24%.. 2% . 13%. 2% . 2%.. 2%.. 3% 7%.. 3%.. 3%. TPP . 4% . 4%. 5% 7%. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Statistics . 2010 TPP .. 2% . 3% 0%.. 5%.. 7%.. 40%.. 9%.. 15%.. 19%. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Statistics . 22. 2010 .. 10%.. 21%.. 0% 16%.. 1%.. 3%. 19%.. 6%.. 6% . 18%. UN comtrade . GDP TPP . TPP . TPP .. TPP FTA TPP FTAAP .. TPP . 23. 2010 TPP .. 1% 1% .. 3% 1%.. 5%.. 9%.. 11% . 52%.. 17%. JETRO . TPP 9 .. FTA . 5 .. TPP . TPP . TPP .. TPP .. TPP TPP .. 24. 2010 .. 1%.. 1%. 12%.. 2% . 25%. 2%. 2% . 2%.. 3%.. 4%.. 5% 19%.. 6%.. 7% . 9%.. TPP . BSE .. TPP .. TPP . TPP . 66%.

6 FTA . TPP . 7% 7% .. 25. 60% 50% 22 .. TPP .. TPP FTA .. EU .. 9 .. TPP .. 9 20 JA TPP .. JA . TPP . TPP . 9 22.. TPP .. TPP TPP .. 1986 1993 . 22.. 26.. TPP 23 . 24 .. FTA . 2008 .. 25 . TPP .. P4 .. WTO . WTO 10 TPP . credible threat .. TPP TPP . 23 2011 10 .. 24 A B . C . 25 .. 27.. TPP .. 28.. TPP TPP EPA . WTO . TPP . EPA WTO .. 9 . EU .. FTA .. FTA . FTA .. 29.. TPP .. WTO .. FTA . TPP 2006 P4 2008 3 . 9 .. TPP TPP .. TPP .. FTA . TPP . TPP . 30.. FTA .. WTO GPA . GPA WTO WTO . WTO . 26 .. TPP GPA . TPP WTO 7 . 27 TPP GPA . GPA 28 . GPA . GPA . FTA . TPP .. TPP . GPA .. TPP .. 26 GPA single undertaking.

7 27 P4 35 20 23 . 2 . 28 .. 31.. TPP TPP .. TPP .. TPP . TPP TPP .. P4 .. P4 P4 .. NAFTA WTO GATT GATS. WTO .. P4 . GATT 21 GATT . 1 3 . 11 GATT 21 . GATT .. 32. 1 . 11 GATT . 21 29 . GATT 21 .. GATT TPP . GATT 21 GATT . 30 21 . GATT .. GATT 21 . 39 41 . GATT 21 2 TPP P4 1 (c) . WTO .. TPP TPP .. TPP .. TPP .. 29 1985 . GATT . GATT 21 . GATT 21 . GATT 21 .. 30 GATT .. GATT 1 .. GATT 21 . 33.. TPP .. TPP .. 31 . TPP .. WTO TRIM TPP .. TRIM .. TPP . 9 . TPP .. TPP . 31 3 . 34.. ISDS Investor State Dispute Settlement . 32 TPP .. 33 .. WTO TPP.. TPP NAFTA .. NAFTA. 34 .. 32 WTO GPA .. 33 fair and equitable treatment.

8 34 TPP ISDS .. NAFTA . ISDS NAFTA . 35.. NAFTA ISDS 20 . ISDS FTA.. 2004 . prudential reasons .. ISDS . TPP ISDS .. TPP . TPP ISDS .. ISDS . ISDS 35 . ISDS . FTA ISDS . TPP . ISDS . FTA ISDS TPP. ISDS ISDS.. 35.. 81 1(a)~(d) . 36.. NAFTA .. TPP .. TPP . TPP . TPP .. 36 .. TPP .. EU . WTO TPP FTA .. 36.. 37.. FTA .. TPP .. TPP .. 37 . TPP .. 2 .. 2 .. P4 .. FTA .. P4 .. TPP . 7 . 37.. 38.. IUU 38 .. TPP .. TPP .. P4 P4 .. TPP P4 . P4 .. P4 .. P4 . TPP .. 39 . Illegal, Unreported, Unregulated . 38. 39.. 39.. TPP .. TPP .. WTO . FTA. TPP .. TPP .. FTA . 40. TPP . TPP .. FTA .. 1 .. WTO . GATS EPA .. 7 5.

9 39 .. 40 7 2 . 54 . TPP . TPP .. downward harmonization .. SPS . 41 . ALOP . 40 .. 41 [2008] . 41.. SPS . P4 SPS 7 WTO SPS .. WTO OIE.. SPS .. TPP . TPP SPS .. 30 . 20 .. DNA . EU DNA . DNA .. EU .. 42 . 42 . 42.. 40% 14% . WTO .. 5% .. TPP .. 1970 344 . 254 .. 40%. 50% WTO.. GM .. eements/Trans-Pacific/1-TPP- 43. TPP . 40 .. TPP .. 43 .. OECD .. 44 .. TPP .. NAFTA .. 2012 8 .. 90 .. ADM . 43 .. 44 WTO . 11 2 (a) . 44.. 1 . 9 100 1902 .. 19 1 .. 3 1 . 3 . 100 200 .. 100 .. 45.. 380 . 240 150 100 .. TPP . 1 . 30 . 4 .. 10 100 .. 45 10 .. 30% 13,000 .. 9,000 .. 25,000. ( /60kg). ( /60kg). 22,296. 19,603.

10 20,000. 17,919. 17,254. 16,660. 17,129 16,048 15,731. 17,054 15,074 14,746. 15,000. 14,635. 12,687. 10,534. 10,000 9,780. 10,447. 9,387. 6,186 8,813. 8,368. 5,271 7,802. 5,000. 2,983. 4,250. 3,670. 2,974. 0. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 . 45 . 46.. 9,000 .. 1 3,000 . 9,000 1 3,000 .. TPP .. 46 P4 .. TPP .. 5 .. 46 23 . 47.. 15ha 1 60 . 6,000 .. 1 .. 1970 .. 4 . kg/10a . 750 .. 650 . 550. 450. 350. 250. 150. 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010.. 48. 47 1 6,000 4,300 .. 6 . 50 . 40 2 4 .. 100% .. WTO .. EU .. 2007 4 .. TPP 10 . 60 1 20,460 . 3,000 . 9 . 3,660 2008.