170110 IEEE LBNL Research Overview

1 LBNL Reliability Research OverviewJoseph H. EtoLawrence Berkeley National (510) 486 7284 Distribution Reliability Working Group2017 ieee PES Joint Technical Committee MeetingNew Orleans, LAJanuary 10, 20171 LBNL Reliability Research Metrics/Analysis2 Reliability Performance Data and MetricsReview of reliability data reported to PUCs (2008)Review of reliability data reported to NERC/EIA (2012)Support for EIA collection of reliability data (2013, 2016)Analysis of Major Event definitions (2016)Analysis of reliability due to distribution vs. loss of supply (2017)GMLC task Develop new bulk power system metric for NERC State of Reliability report (2017 8)Reliability AnalysisEconometric analysis of trends in reliability (2012, 2014, 2017)Customer adoption of stand by generation/UPS (2016)Review of reliability information posted in near real time by utilities (2017) areas/electricity reliability3 The Economic Value of ReliabilityMeta analysis of utility value of lost load surveys (2003, 2009, 2015)Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator (2010, 2015)Review of regional economic modeling to estimate cost of long duration, widespread interruptions (2016)Insurance industry perspectives (2016)

2 Value based Reliability PlanningNational cost of power interruptions(2004, 2017)Utility case studies (2015)PUC experiences with utility filings (2017)GMLC task incorporate ICE Calculator into APPA web portal (2017) areas/electricity reliabilityLBNL Reliability Research Economics/Planning4 Are power interruptions becoming more frequent and lasting longer? If major events are included in SAIDI and SAIFI, total interruption minutes and number of events are increasing. increase in duration per year is statistically significant at 1% level If major events are not included, total interruption minutes and number of events are slightly increasing. Trend for total interruption minutes (+ ) is statistically significant at 10% level; the trend for number of events is not statistically significantLarsen, P.

3 , K. Hamachi LaCommare, J. Eto, J. Sweeney. 2016. Recent Trends in Power System Reliability and Implications for Evaluating Future Investments in Resiliency. Energy 117 (2016) 29 46. , et al. findings: trends in SAIDI and SAIFIA Comparison of LBNL s and DRWG s SAIDI Data5020040060080010002005 2006 2007 20082009 2010 2011 2012 MinutesSAIDI with MEDsDRWG Avg SAIDI w/ MEDs, n=29 DRWG Median SAIDI w/ MEDs, n=29 DRWG Cust Wgt Avg SAIDI w/ MEDs, n=29 Larsen et al Avg SAIDI w/ MEDs, n=43 Larsen et al. Median SAIDI w/ MEDs, n=43 Larsen et al. Cust Wgt Avg SAIDI w/ MEDs, n=43801001201401601802005 2006 2007 20082009 2010 2011 2012 MinutesSAIDI without MEDsDRWG Avg SAIDI w/o MEDs, n=29 DRWG Median SAIDI w/o MEDs, n=29 DRWG Cust Wgt Avg SAIDI w/o MEDs, n=29 Larsen et al.

4 Avg SAIDI w/o MEDs, n=119 Larsen et al. Median SAIDI w/o MEDs, n=119 Larsen et al. Cust Wgt Avg SAIDI w/o MEDs, n=1196 Updated data set 2 more years of utility reliability data (2013, 2014)Additional information on T&D investmentNew information on individual severe weather events Improved econometric analysisWe plan to circulate draft for review during late Spring 2017 Larsen, et al. 2017 preview