中華民國 2012 年至 2060 年 人口推計 - 歡迎光臨

1 (101) GPN 1010101355. ISBN 978-986-03-3030-4. 2012 2060 .. 101 8 . (101) GPN 1010101355. ISBN 978-986-03-3030-4. 2012 2060 .. 101 8 . 2012 2060 .. 2012 2, 2, 2060. 2, 1, . 1, . 2012 . 2031 2025. 2020 2, 2, 2, .. 2012 2060 . 2012 . 2012 . 2060 . 2012 2060 . 2012 . 2012 2060 .. 2030 2022 2017 0 .. 1 3 . 2012 2060 . I.. 2012 0 5 10 2022. 20 2032 .. 2012 6. 12 18 . 10 .. 2010 .. 2022 20 .. 2012 6 21 10 12 17 . 20 18 21 .. 15 64 2015 . 2012 . 2060 10 2012 . 25 34 2060 55 64 .. 2060 65 2012 . 2012 2060 . 80 2012 . 2060 . 15 49 2012 . 2060 . II. 5 2012 . 30 34 2060 45 49 .. 1993 7% . 2018 14% . 2025 20% . 2012 . 1 2016 . 100% 2060 . 4 . 2012 2060 . 2012 . 2060 . 2012 1 2060 . 1 . III.. 1 .. 1 .. 1 .. 1 .. 2 ( ) .. 2 ( ) .. 4 ( ) .. 4 .. 5 .. 5 .. 6 ( ) .. 6 ( ) .. 7 ( ) .. 8 .. 8 ( ) 0-14 .. 9 ( ) 15-64.

2 9 ( ) 65 .. 9 .. 10 ( ) 0-5 .. 10 ( ) 6 12 18 .. 10 ( ) 6-21 .. 10 ( ) 15-64 .. 11 ( ) 65 .. 11 ( ) 15-49 .. 12 .. 13 ( ) .. 13 ( ) .. 13 ( ) .. 14 ( ) .. 14 .. 15 Cohort-Component Method .. 63 Block Bootstrap Method .. 65 Lee Carter .. 66 IV.. 1 .. 2 2 .. 9 3 .. 10 4 .. 11 5 .. 11 6 .. 12 7 .. 12 8 .. 13 9 .. 15 10 .. 17 10-1 .. 18 10-2 19 10-3 .. 20 11 .. 21 11-1 .. 22 11-2 23 11-3 .. 24 12 .. 25 12-1 .. 26 12-2 27 12-3 .. 28 1 .. 29 1-1 .. 31 1-2 .. 32 1-3 .. 33 1-4 .. 34 1-5 2010 .. 35 1-6 2010 .. 36 2 .. 37 2-1 .. 38 2-2 .. 39 2-3 .. 40 3 .. 41 3-1 .. 42 3-2 .. 44 V. 3-3 .. 46 3-4 .. 48 4 .. 51 4-1 1960-2060 .. 53 4-2 1960-2060 .. 54 4-3 1960-2060 .. 55 4-4 1960-2060 65 .. 56 4-5 1960-2060 .. 57 4-6 1960-2060 .. 58 4-7 1960-2060 .. 59 4-8 1960-2060 .. 60 4-9 1960-2060 .. 61 4-10.

3 62 VI.. 1 .. 1 2 .. 3 3 .. 3 4 .. 4 5 .. 5 6 .. 6 7 .. 7 8 .. 7 9 .. 8 10 .. 13 11 .. 14 VII. 2012 2060 .. 2 .. 1 . 4 1 .. Cohort-Component Method 2011 .. 1 .. x .. 0.. t t+1 .. 1 .. 50 2012 2060 . 1 .. 1.. 1 .. 2 . 3 .. 1 . 2011 .. ( ).. 2012 2035 . 2012 2035 . 2012 2035 . =100 2012 2035 .. 2012 2012 .. 2012 2060 2012 2060 2012 2060 2012 2035 .. ( ) .. 2 . 2011 2012 2011 . 2013 .. 2035. 2060 . 2035. 2060 2 . 2 Total Fertility Rate TFR . 15 49 . 2.. 0. 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . 1. 1980 2011 .. 2. 2012 2060 . 2 .. 2008 25 29 30 34 . 30 39 29 . 30 39 29 . 29 .. 2011 . 2012 2035 2060 3 . 111.. 110.. 109. 108 =100. 107 106. 105. 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . 1. 1980 2011 .. 2. 2012 2060 . 3 . 3. ( ) . Lee-Carter .. 2011 2060. 4 . 3 Lee-Carter . 90. 85.

4 80.. 75. 70 65.. 60 0. 55.. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . 1. 1960 2011 . 2. 2012 2060 . 4 . ( ) . 3 .. 2011 . 5 30 50 80 . 3 4 (1) (2) . (3) 12 (4) .. 4.. 2011 . 2012 . 2035 2060 . 3 2011 . 20 35 44 . 25 44 .. 2012 2035 . 2012 2035 . 5 . 40.. 30. 20.. 10. 0.. 10. 20. 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . 1. 1990 2011 . 2. 2012 2060 . 5 .. 2012 2060 . 10 12 .. 50 . 6 . 2012 2, 2030 . 2, 2060 2, 2012 . 2060 . 5. 2012 2060 . 2012 2, 2024 . 2, 2060 1, 2012 . 2060 . 2012 2060 . 2012 2, 2019 . 2, 2060 1, 2012 . 2060 . 2012 2060 .. (2024 ) (2030 ) 25 .. 23 . (2019 ).. 21 .. 19.. 17.. 15. 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . 1. 1980 2011 .. 2. 2012 2060 . 6 .. ( ) .. 7 9 . 2012 2060 . 2012 2012 2012 . 2060 . 2012 2060 . 2012 2012 2012 . 2060 . 6. 2012 2060.

5 2012 2012 2012 . 2060 . 400.. 350. 233. 300.. 229. 250 224. 198. 200.. 166 . 150. 115 . 100. 80. 50 . 0. 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . 1. 1990 2011 .. 2. 2012 2060 . 7 . ( ) .. 2012 2060 2012 2060. 8 9 . 40 1200.. 65.. 35 1000. 30.. 800. 25.. 20 600. 15. 400. 10. 200. 5. 0 0. 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . 1. 1990 2011 .. 2. 2012 2060 . 8 . 7. ( ) .. 2012 2030 .. 1 . 2012 2022 .. 3 9 . 2012 2017 .. 3 . 20.. 18 . 16.. 14. 12. 10 .. 8. 6 2022 . 4 . 2. 0. 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . 1. 1990 2011 .. 2. 2012 2060 . 9 .. 15 15 64 2026 .. 65 .. 2 . 8. ( ) 0-14 . 2012 2060 . 2012 2060 . 2012 2060 . 2 . ( ). 0-14 15-64 65+ .. 2012 3,416 3,412 3,407 17,305 17,305 17,305 2,602 2,602 2,602. 2015 3,172 3,149 3,122 17,376 17,376 17,376 2,945 2,945 2,945. 2020 3,036 2,947 2,816 16,859 16,859 16,859 3,808 3,808 3,808.

6 2030 3,208 2,828 2,401 15,125 15,102 15,074 5,639 5,639 5,639. 2040 3,009 2,493 2,066 13,601 13,376 13,081 6,844 6,844 6,844. 2050 2,528 2,014 1,613 11,911 11,334 10,740 7,659 7,659 7,659. 2060 2,511 1,859 1,363 10,498 9,598 8,754 7,461 7,461 7,461. (%). 2012 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . ( ) 15-64 . 2012 1, . 2015 1, 2060 1, . 2012 . 2060 . 2012 2015 . 2060 . 2012 2015 . 2060 . ( ) 65 . 2012 . 65 2016 2020 . 9. 2060 . 2012 . 2060 . 2060 .. 2060 .. ( ) 0-5 . 0 5 2012. 10 2022 20 . 2032 3 . 3 . ( ).. 0-5 ( ) 6 ( ) 12 ( ) 18 ( ). 2012 1,190 207 306 322. 2022 1,131 192 171 218. 2032 1,083 190 190 196. 2060 717 124 128 133. 1) (%). 2012~2022 2022~2032 2012~2032 . 1) a ~b = a b a 100 . ( ) 6 12 18 . 2012 6 12 18 . 10 . 2010 2022 . 20 .. 3 . ( ) 6-21 . 2012 6 21 . 10 . 10. 12 17 20 .. 4 . 4.

7 ( ). 6-21 6-11 12-17 18-21 . (%) ( ) ( ) ( ). 2012 4,473 1,366 1,825 1,283. 2022 3,354 1,217 1,189 948. 2032 3,121 1,142 1,148 831. 2060 2,079 756 779 545. 1). (%). 2012~2022 2022~2032 2012~2032 . 1)a ~b = a b a 100 . ( ) 15-64 . 2012 1, 25 34 . 2060 2012. 55 . 55 64 5 . 5 . ( ).. 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 . 2012 17,305 3,231 3,728 3,712 3,714 2,920. 2020 16,859 2,653 3,206 3,911 3,568 3,520. 2030 15,102 2,001 2,656 3,195 3,820 3,430. 2040 13,376 1,903 2,009 2,648 3,127 3,689. 2050 11,334 1,774 1,913 2,015 2,596 3,035. 2060 9,598 1,380 1,784 1,921 1,982 2,530. (%). 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . ( ) 65 . 2060 65 2012 85. 80 2012 . 6 . 11. 6 . ( ).. 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 . 2012 2,602 747 682 510 379 283. 2020 3,808 1,450 903 586 444 425. 2030 5,639 1,713 1,510 1,194 651 571. 2040 6,844 1,608 1,573 1,447 1,125 1,090.

8 2050 7,659 1,719 1,737 1,388 1,209 1,606. 2060 7,461 1,475 1,394 1,503 1,367 1,723. (%). 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . ( ) 15-49 .. 30 34 35 .. 15 49 2012 . 2060 30 34 . 2012 15 . 49 30 34 2060 . 45 49 7 . 7 . ( ).. 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 . 2012 6,217 777 775 831 1,023 946 924 940. 2020 5,711 552 718 776 785 956 1,025 899. 2030 4,765 492 467 554 727 787 788 949. 2040 3,964 457 458 495 478 564 729 782. 2050 3,337 404 446 459 471 509 484 563. 2060 2,979 312 342 407 459 473 477 509. % (%). 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . 12.. ( ) . 1993 7% ageing . 2018 14% aged 2025 . 20% super-aged . 10 . 25 .. 11% 15% 20%. 20 7%. 65 . 15 39%. 74%. 68% 73% 68%. 10 15-64 . 51%. 5. 25% 15% 13% 12% 14 10%. 0. 1990 1993 2012 2018 2025 2060 .. ageing aged super-aged . 1. 1990 2011 .. 2. 2012 2060.

9 10 . ( ) . 2012 . 1 2016 . 100% 2060 . 4 8 . 8 . 1). (%) 2) ( ). 2012 1 2016 1 2020 1 2030 1 2040 1 2050 1 2060 1 . 1) 65 0-14 100 . 2) 65 0-14 . 13. ( ) . 2012 . 2016 2034 . 2060 . 8 . ( ) .. 15 64. 2012 . 2060 . 2012 1 2060 . 1 11 9 . 100. (. % 80.. ). 60.. 40 20.. 0. 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 . 1. 0-14 15-64 100 . 2. 65 15-64 100 . 3.. 1. 1980 2011 .. 2. 2012 2060 . 11 . 15 19 20 64 . 2012 2015 . 2060 20 64 . 2012 1 2060 . 1 . 20-69 . 2012 2020 . 14. 2060 20 69 70. 2012 1 2060 . 1 . 9 . 1). 15-64 (%) 20-64 2) (%) 20-69 3) (%).. 2012 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 .. 15-64 65 20-64 65 20-69 70 . 2012 1 1 1. 2015 1 1 1. 2020 1 1 1. 2030 1 1 1. 2040 1 1 1. 2050 1 1 1. 2060 1 1 1.. 1) 15-64 (0-14 15-64 ) (65 15-64 ) 100 . 2) 20-64 (0-19 20-64 ) (65 20-64 ) 100 . 3) 20-69 (0-19 20-69 ) (70 20-69 ) 100.

10 2060 1, 1983 . 1, 1983 . 2060 .. 2011 2012 .. 15.. 16. 10 . 17. 10-1 .. ( ) ( ) ( ) ( =100) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ). 2012 101 23,322 11,677 11,645 2013 102 23,393 11,695 11,698 2014 103 23,448 11,706 11,742 2015 104 23,493 11,712 11,780 2016 105 23,538 11,719 11,818 2017 106 23,581 11,726 11,855 2018 107 23,623 11,732 11,891 2019 108 23,664 11,738 11,925 2020 109 23,703 11,745 11,958 2021 110 23,742 11,751 11,991 2022 111 23,780 11,758 12,022 2023 112 23,816 11,764 12,052 2024 113 23,850 11,770 12,080 2025 114 23,881 11,775 12,106 2026 115 23,910 11,779 12,131 2027 116 23,935 11,781 12,154 2028 117 23,955 11,781 12,174 2029 118 23,967 11,778 12,190 2030 119 23,972 11,770 12,201 2031 120 23,967 11,759 12,208 2032 121 23,954 11,743 12,211 2033 122 23,930 11,722 12,208 2034 123 23,895 11,696 12,199 2035 124 23,848 11,664 12,185 2036 125 23,790 11,626 12,164 2037 126 23,720 11,583 12,137 2038 127 23.