フォーカス 2018－2019年度経済見通し特集号

1 2018 2 4 . ( 2 4 ) 2017 < > . GDP .. 2018 2019 ( ). 2018 2019 ( ).. (Matsushita wrote).. < >2018 2019 1 11. 2 15. 2018 2019 3. 2018 2 4 . ( ).. CPI 2017 1 . CPI . 2017 CPI 2018 .. FRB 12 FOMC FF . 3 .. ECB .. ECB 2017 10 9 2018 9 . 1 600 300 . 2018 7 . 2. 2018 2 4 . 2018 2019 .. 2017 10 12 GDP 8 .. 1 . 2018 2019 1 .. 100 1-1 . 120.. 115 . 1-1 . 110.. 105.. 100. 95.. 2015 2011 2010 . 90. 10/12. 11/12. 12/12. 13/12. 14/12. 15/12. 16/12. 17/12. 11/6. 12/6. 13/6. 14/6. 15/6. 16/6. 17/6.. ( . 20 2018.. 1 . 2019 10 .. 1-2 .. 1-2 .. 60 120. 2016 . 50 100. 40 80.. 30 60.)

2 2018 . 20 40. ( ). 10 10 20. 13/12. 14/12. 15/12. 16/12. 17/12. 14/3. 14/6. 14/9. 15/3. 15/6. 15/9. 16/3. 16/6. 16/9. 17/3. 17/6. 17/9.. 2 . 3. 2018 2 4 . 2018 95 2019 93 .. 1-3 .. 7 30. 3 . 2017 . 20 .. 2017 4 . 10.. 0.. 2 -10. 13/6. 14/6. 15/6. 16/6. 17/6. 13/12. 14/12. 15/12. 16/12. 17/12. 3 .. 1-3 2017 2018.. 8 .. 2018 2019 .. 1-4 3 . 3 3 135. 2010 100.. 125.. 115.. 105.. 1-4 95.. 13/12. 14/12. 15/12. 16/12. 17/12. 14/6. 15/6. 16/6. 17/6. 2017 .. 10 .. 218 2019 .. 12 13 . 1-5 12 11 . 4. 2018 2 4 .. 1-5 . 20.. 15.. 10. NIEs . 5.. 0.. -5 . 2017 . -10 .. -15. 13/12.

3 14/12. 15/12. 16/12. 17/12. 13/9. 14/3. 14/6. 14/9. 15/3. 15/6. 15/9. 16/3. 16/6. 16/9. 17/3. 17/6. 17/9.. EU .. CPI .. 1-6 CPI . CPI 2017 1 3.. 45. 1-6 2 30. 1 15. CPI 12 . 0 0. CPI . -1 -15.. -2 -30.. 2015 -3. 2015 12 2010 . -45. 08/12. 09/12. 10/12. 11/12. 12/12. 13/12. 14/12. 15/12. 16/12. 17/12.. ( ) ( CPI). CPI .. CPI . 2018 CPI 2019 .. 1-7 GDP .. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 . 10-12 1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 1-3 . 5. 2018 2 4 .. 10 12 GDP . 2-1 GDP ). 7 9 2017 2018 2019 . 2-1 2016 2017 2018 2019 10-12 1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12. GDP.

4 10 12 . ( ).. ( ).. 2018 2019 .. 2 12 .. IT .. FRB . 1 30 31 FOMC FF . 2 . 3 . 1 2 .. 2018 2 .. FRB 3 . 2,3 .. 6. 2018 2 4 .. 10 12 GDP 3-1 GDP ( ) . 2017. 2018 2019 . 7 9 2016 2017 2018 2019. 10-12 1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12. GDP. 3-1 7 .. 9 10 12 .. ( ) .. ( ) GDP. ECB .. ECB .. ECB . 1 25 ECB . 2018 . ECB . ECB . ECB ECB . 2019 .. 10 12 GDP .. EU . 3 . EU . 1 CPI CPI . BOE 2 7 MPC .. BOE 5 2 .. 7. 2018 2 4 .. 4-1 . 2017 10 12 GDP 11.. 4-1 . 10.. 9.. 8. 7. 6. 10/12. 11/12. 12/12. 13/12. 14/12. 15/12. 16/12. 17/12. 11/6. 12/6. 13/6. 14/6. 15/6. 16/6.

5 17/6.. 4-2 GDP .. 2017 2018 2019 .. GDP 2018 2019 . 4-2 .. 2017 11 .. 2017 .. 2017 .. EU .. 10 .. 8. 2018 2 4 .. ( 5-1) GDP .. 10 12 GDP 2016 2017 2018 2019 . 7 9 2008 . 10 12 .. 12 .. 2019 .. 10 12 GDP ( ) 7 9 . 3 . 7 .. CPI( ) 1 . 2018 2018. 1 2019 1 .. 7 9 GDP 4 . 2009 1 3 9 .. 2 .. IT . LNG .. 2 6 RBA( ) .. 2019 ( ). 9. 2018 2 4 .. ( 6-1) / . 1,200 80. WTI 1,000 70. OPEC OPEC 800 60. 600 50. 2018 9. 400 40.. 200 30.. 0 20. 12 2015 6 . 15/2. 15/5. 15/8. 16/2. 16/5. 16/8. 17/2. 17/5. 17/8. 18/2. 15/11. 16/11. 17/11. 60 / WTI ( ). Baker Hughes . 6-1 . 6-2 . 5 4,000 8,000.

6 Drilled Completed 3,500 DUC( 7,000. 3,000 6,000. EIA. 2,500 5,000. 2 Drilling Productivity Report . 2,000 4,000. 1,500 3,000. Completed 1,000 2,000. Drilled but Uncompleted DUC 500 1,000. 14/4. 14/7. 15/1. 15/4. 15/7. 16/1. 16/4. 16/7. 17/1. 17/4. 17/7. 18/1. 14/10. 15/10. 16/10. 17/10. Drilled EIA.. 6-2 . 3 .. OPEC OPEC .. 2018 55 65 . / . 10. 2018 2 4 . 2/5 2/16 .. 12 2 7 2010 =100. CI . 12 CI 125. 3 120. 15 115. 7 110. 105.. 100. ( ) ( ) . 95. 90 7 . CI 85 3 . 2 80 CI. 75. 07/12. 08/12. 09/12. 10/12. 11/12. 12/12. 13/12. 14/12. 15/12. 16/12. 17/12.. 1 2 8 DI.)

7 1 DI 70. DI. 65 DI . DI . 50 6 60 DI . 55.. 50.. 45. 40. 3 50 9 35. 30.. 14/1. 14/4. 14/7. 15/1. 15/4. 15/7. 16/1. 16/4. 16/7. 17/1. 17/4. 17/7. 18/1. 14/10. 15/10. 16/10. 17/10.. 12 3 2 9 3 . 2010 =100. 12 3 3. 108. 107. 3 .. 11 106 . 6 5 105. 104. 103.. 102.. 101. 100. 99. 98. 13/12. 14/3. 14/6. 14/12. 15/3. 15/6. 15/9. 16/3. 16/6. 16/9. 16/12. 17/6. 17/9. 17/12. 14/9. 15/12. 17/3.. 3 3 . 11. 2018 2 4 . 1 2 13 .. 1 13 8 40. 12 6 30. 4 20. 2 10. 0 0. -2 -10. -4 -20. -6 -30. -8 -40. -10 -50. 14/1. 14/4. 14/7. 14/10. 15/1. 15/4. 15/7. 15/10. 16/1. 16/4. 16/7. 16/10.

8 17/1. 17/4. 17/7. 17/10. 18/1. 13 .. ( ).. 10 12 GDP 2 14 . 10 12 GDP . 7 9 .. 5 .. 16/1Q. 16/2Q. 16/3Q. 16/4Q. 17/1Q. 17/2Q. 17/3Q. 17/4Q.. GDP. GDP . 12 2 15 . 12 . 3 10 11 2 . 3 . 1 3 . 2 .. 07/12. 08/12. 09/12. 10/12. 11/12. 12/12. 13/12. 14/12. 15/12. 16/12. 17/12.. 12. 2018 2 4 .. 1 CPI 2 14 . CPI . 1 CPI 8 CPI 2 CPI CPI 1 .. 09/1. 09/7. 10/1. 10/7. 11/1. 11/7. 12/1. 12/7. 13/1. 13/7. 14/1. 14/7. 15/1. 15/7. 16/1. 16/7. 17/1. 17/7. 18/1.. CPI CPI. CPI 2018 . 2 . 1 2 14 . ( ). 1 5 GDP 16/12. 17/10. 17/11. 17/12. 16/11. 17/1. 17/2. 17/3. 17/4. 17/5. 17/6. 17/7.

9 17/8. 17/9. 18/1.. 1 2 15 2007 =100 .. 1 5 110 90.. 105 85.. 100 80. PC . 95 75. 6 IT . 90 70. 85 65. 1 . 09/1. 11/1. 12/1. 13/1. 14/1. 16/1. 17/1. 18/1. 10/1. 15/1.. FRB.. 13. 2018 2 4 .. 12 2 14 . 12 3 3.. 2.. 1.. 0.. -1.. -2. 15/12. 16/12. 17/12. 16/3. 16/6. 16/9. 17/3. 17/6. 17/9.. 14. 2018 2 4 . 2018 2 19 .. 30 .. 25000 28000. 23000 27000. 26000. 21000 25000. 24000. 19000 23000. 17000 22000. 21000. 15000 20000. 1900013000 19000. 18000 18000. 1700011000 17000. 16000. 160009000 15000. 15000. 15/10. 16/12. 17/11. 15/2. 15/5. 15/8. 16/1. 16/4. 16/7. 16/9. 17/3.

10 17/6. 17/8. 18/2. 15/10. 16/12. 17/11. 15/5. 15/8. 16/1. 16/7. 16/9. 17/3. 17/6. 17/8. 18/2. 15/2. 16/4. 14000. 13000. 12000. ( ) ( ) . 11000. 10000 ( ) . 9000. 8000 . 7000. 15000 100 . 12/02. 12/04. 12/07. 12/10. 13/01. 13/06. 13/09. 13/12. 14/03. 14/05. 14/08. 14/11. 15/02. 13/04. 7800. 14000 7500. 13000 7200. 12000 6900. 11000 6600. 6300. 10000. 6000. 9000 5700. 8000 5400. 15/10. 16/12. 17/11. 15/2. 15/5. 16/1. 16/4. 16/7. 16/9. 17/3. 17/6. 17/8. 15/8. 18/2. 15/10. 16/12. 17/11. 15/2. 15/5. 15/8. 16/1. 16/4. 16/7. 17/3. 17/6. 17/8. 18/2. 16/9. ( ) ( ) . ( ).