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2020 Semiconductor Market Review & 2021 Outlook

2020 Semiconductor MarketReview & 2021 OutlookDale Ford Chief AnalystFebruary 4, 2021 SIA RoundtableLooking Back~ 2020 ~A Whipsaw DisasterThat Required a Nimble ResponseCOVID-19 Supply Chain Impact 2020 COVID-19 Supply Chain Impact 2020 COVID-19 Supply Chain Impact 2020 Electronic Component Revenue GrowthSource: World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS),World Passive Trade Statistics (WPTS)Looking Forward~ 2021 ~ Semiconductor Revenue Growth Cycle Quarter-over-Quarter took a hit in summer 2020 Annual revenue cycle trends up starting September 2019 Annual revenue growth profile continued steady through 2020 Annual revenue growth breaks positive in August 2020 Strong demand and technology drivers Acceleratinggrowthin2021?Source WSTSN orth America Sentiment Survey TrendsSource: ECIA Electronic Component Sales Trends SurveyNorth America Lead Time TrendsSource: ECIAS olid Start to Current CycleMost cycles last about four yearsSource WSTS-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%-30%-20%-10%0%10% 20%30%40%1990199119921993199419951996199 7199819992000200120022003200420052006200 7200820092010201120122013201420152016201 7201820192020202120222023 Real GDP GrowthElectronic Equipment and Semiconductor Revenue GrowthElectronic Equipment OEM Factory RevenueSemiconductor RevenueWW Real GDPS emiconductor Revenue Growth CycleGDP Relationship Current Cycle Global GDP creates drag on Semiconductor growth Technology/ Market forces aligning to support growth in 2020+Source: IHSM Global Insight, O

Market Outlook •Technology and market drivers build momentum •Economic stability needs to provide solid foundation •Adoption of new technologies in systems drives expanding design opportunities •Opportunities for new component technologies to make a mark •But don’toverlook need for legacy manufacturing capacity Positives • Medical Equipment ...

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Transcription of 2020 Semiconductor Market Review & 2021 Outlook

1 2020 Semiconductor MarketReview & 2021 OutlookDale Ford Chief AnalystFebruary 4, 2021 SIA RoundtableLooking Back~ 2020 ~A Whipsaw DisasterThat Required a Nimble ResponseCOVID-19 Supply Chain Impact 2020 COVID-19 Supply Chain Impact 2020 COVID-19 Supply Chain Impact 2020 Electronic Component Revenue GrowthSource: World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS),World Passive Trade Statistics (WPTS)Looking Forward~ 2021 ~ Semiconductor Revenue Growth Cycle Quarter-over-Quarter took a hit in summer 2020 Annual revenue cycle trends up starting September 2019 Annual revenue growth profile continued steady through 2020 Annual revenue growth breaks positive in August 2020 Strong demand and technology drivers Acceleratinggrowthin2021?Source WSTSN orth America Sentiment Survey TrendsSource: ECIA Electronic Component Sales Trends SurveyNorth America Lead Time TrendsSource: ECIAS olid Start to Current CycleMost cycles last about four yearsSource WSTS-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%-30%-20%-10%0%10% 20%30%40%1990199119921993199419951996199 7199819992000200120022003200420052006200 7200820092010201120122013201420152016201 7201820192020202120222023 Real GDP GrowthElectronic Equipment and Semiconductor Revenue GrowthElectronic Equipment OEM Factory RevenueSemiconductor RevenueWW Real GDPS emiconductor Revenue Growth CycleGDP Relationship Current Cycle Global GDP creates drag on Semiconductor growth Technology/ Market forces aligning to support growth in 2020+Source: IHSM Global Insight, OMDIA,IMF Forecast averagesGDP Forecast ScenariosScenarios have evolved over timeV ShapedU ShapedBathtub ShapedPi ( ) ShapedW Shape A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery -IMFThe Swoosh Scenario-Conference BoardSource.

2 IMFE conomic Risk FactorsEconomic Confrontations Between Major Powers World trade in manufactured goods has more than doubled between 2000 and 2017 from $ trillion to $ share of world trade in manufactured goods has grown from in 2002 to in 2017. (Source: World Trade Organization) Globally Weak Investment Due to Low Expected Returns, Uncertainty About Economic Policy Small Business Health The majority ofmanufacturing firms in the United States are quite 2017, there were 248,039 firms in the manufacturing sector, with all but 3,914 firms considered to be small ( , having fewer than 500 employees). In fact, three-quarters of these firms have fewer than 20 employees. (Source: Census Bureau, Statistics of Businesses) Unemployment and State Lockdown OrdersEnergy Shocks Manufacturers consume more than 30% of the nation s energy users consumed quadrillion Btu of energy in 2018, or of the total. (Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2019)Societal and Political TurmoilLong-term Semiconductor Growth TrendsSource WSTSS emiconductorMarket DriversMarket Outlook Technology and Market drivers build momentum Economic stability needs to provide solid foundation Adoptionofnewtechnologies in systems drives expanding design opportunities Opportunitiesfornewcomponent technologies to make a mark Butdon toverlookneedforlegacymanufacturingcapac ityPositives Medical Equipment Data Centers Telecom Infrastructureo5G Solid state drives Touchless solutions Memory SensorsChallenges Automotive Electronic Component SupplyoExpandingtoothers?

3 Aerospace Electronics Global Trade Inventory / Supply Chain ManagementMarket Outlook Long Term Future Still Bright!The Developing Technology Triumverat


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