21st Century Technologies - OECD

1 21stCenturyTechnologiesPromises and Perilsof a Dynamic FutureORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT21st CENTURYTECHNOLOGIESPROMISES AND PERILSOF A DYNAMIC FUTUREORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENTORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATIONAND DEVELOPMENTP ursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960,and which came into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed: to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a risingstandard of living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, andthus to contribute to the development of the world economy; to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-membercountries in the process of economic development; and to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatorybasis in accordance with international original Member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada,Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, theNetherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, theUnited Kingdom and the United States.

2 The following countries became Memberssubsequently through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964),Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971), New Zealand (29th May 1973),Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic ( 21st December 1995), Hungary(7th May 1996), Poland (22nd November 1996) and Korea (12th December 1996). TheCommission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD(Article 13 of the OECD Convention).Publi e en fran cais sous le titre :LES Technologies DU XXIe SI`ECLE :PROMESSES ET P ERILS D UN FUTUR DYNAMIQUE OECD 1998 Permission to reproduce a portion of this work for non-commercial purposes or classroom useshould be obtained through the Centre fran cais d exploitation du droit de copie (CFC),20, rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France, Tel.

3 (33-1) 44 07 47 70,Fax (33-1) 46 34 67 19, for every country except the United States. In the United Statespermission should be obtained through the Copyright Clearance Center, Customer Service,(508)750-8400, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923 USA, or CCC Online: All other applications for permission to reproduce or translate all orpart of this book should be made to OECD Publications, 2, rue Andr e-Pascal,75775 Paris Cedex 16, part of the preparations for EXPO 2000 the World Exposition inHannover, Germany the OECD Forum for the Future is organising a series of fourconferences to take place beforehand around the theme of People, Nature andTechnology: Sustainable Societies in the 21st Century . The series will considerfour key areas of human activity: technology, economy, society and conferences will explore possible evolutions of key variables and analysedifferent development paths in order to expose some of the main policy implica-tions and options.

4 Each conference will provide analysis of underlying trends andpolicy directions. However, the overall aim of the series is to build a comprehen-sive foundation for assessing the critical choices likely to face citizens and deci-sion-makers in the next entire series is benefiting from special sponsorship by EXPO 2000and four German banks Bankgesellschaft Berlin, DG BANK DeutscheGenossenschaftsbank, NORD/LB Norddeutsche Landesbank, and WestdeutscheLandesbank Girozentrale (WestLB). Additional financial support is provided bynumerous Asian, European and North American partners of the OECD Forum forthe first of these conferences, hosted by the Westdeutsche Landesbank(WestLB), was held at Schloss Krickenbeck near D usseldorf, Germany 7-8 Decem-ber 1997.

5 The theme was 21st Century Technologies : Balancing Economic, Socialand Environmental Goals .Shaping the future in order to realise economic and social goals is one of thefundamental challenges of human society. Technology has proved key in meetingthis challenge, and its role appears set to remain at least as important in thefuture. However, there are many uncertainties with regard to the transformation oftechnological potential into positive economic and social outcomes. Indeed, formany people displaced at work or bewildered by new, unfamiliar products, itseems as if technological progress is more of a curse than a blessing. This firstconference examined both the positive and the negative sides, the opportunitiesand the risks, that may arise as technology develops over the next twenty-five321st Century Technologies years.

6 In so doing, it explored the two-way relationship between technology onthe one hand and economy and society on the conference was organised into three sessions. The first assessed generaltrends in pervasive Technologies , particularly information and biological technolo-gies, with the aim of identifying areas of technically feasible future second session explored how different economic, social and politicalframeworks might lead to differences in the extent to which technological oppor-tunities are realised and risks reduced. In the concluding session, the focus wason the policy directions most likely to enhance the contribution of technology tothe realisation of sustainable economic, social and environmental publication brings together the papers presented at the meeting as wellas an introductory contribution and summary of the main points of the discussionsprepared by the Secretariat.

7 The book is published on the responsibility of theSecretary-General of the OF CONTENTSC hapter Promises and Perils of 21st Century Technology: An Overview ofthe Issuesby Riel Miller, Wolfgang Michalski and Barrie Next Twenty-five Years of Technology: Opportunities and Risksby Joseph , Connected, Smarterby Herv e for the 21st Centuryby Werner Arber and Mathis Development and Organisational Change:Differing Patterns of Innovationby Meinolf Dierkes, Jeanette Hofmann and Lutz Macro Conditions for Realising Technology s Potentialby Emilio 123 Chapter Possibilities: Technology and Planet-wide Challengesby Luc 147 Annex: List of 17151 THE PROMISES AND PERILSOF 21st Century TECHNOLOGY:AN OVERVIEW OF THE ISSUESbyRiel Miller, Wolfgang Michalski and Barrie StevensOECD Secretariat, Advisory Unit to the Secretary-GeneralOver the past Century there have been many profound technological, eco-nomic and social transformations.

8 In OECD countries the full development anddiffusion of innovations such as electricity, telephones and automobiles haveaccompanied the emergence of mass production, mass consumption and massgovernment. There are many who, facing the next Century , wonder if it will bepossible and/or desirable to continue along the path of such prodigious worry about the capacity, both technological and social, to continue advanc-ing and inventing new tools, new products and new ways of organising everydaywork and home life. Others worry that the ongoing transition costs may be toohigh, or that the risks to cherished traditions or the threats to environmentalsustainability will, singly or together, be too great to bear. Preservation versusdynamism, incrementalism versus radicalism, these are the polar extremes that,unsurprisingly, haunt many end-of-the- Century , future-of-the-millennium OECD Forum for the Future Conference on 21st Century Technologieswas no exception; all of these perspectives were analysed and discussed.

9 How-ever, perhaps the most striking thing about the conference was the widely heldview that the prospects for prosperity economic, social and environmental over the next twenty-five years will probably hinge on actively encouragingchanges equal to, if not greater than, those already experienced in the twentiethcentury. In particular, realising the full potential of tomorrow s Technologies tocontribute to human well-being was seen as depending heavily on the capacity toembrace dynamic change. With only a few reservations, the analysis affirmed thebenefits of pursuing socio-technical dynamism rather than preservationism. Theanalysis also underscored the urgency of pushing beyond incremental and ad hoc721st Century Technologies reactive approaches in order to develop and implement more transformative andintegrated economic, social and technological courses of introductory chapter is divided into three sections.

10 The first focuses onthe prospects for twenty-first Century Technologies largely ignoring economic orsocial factors given the current state of play in today s research and develop-ment labs. The second considers the crucial economic and social forces at micro,macro and global levels that are likely to play key roles in determining both thepath of technological development and its diffusion. Lastly, the chapter offers anassessment of policy initiatives that might foster the most beneficial patterns oftechnological development and TECHNOLOGY S POTENTIAL: OPPORTUNITIESAND RISKSI magining possible applications of technology two or three decades from nowcalls for a better understanding of the ways in which performance trends interactwith societies readiness to embrace economic, social and technical change.