7 Essential Elements of Demand Forecasting, Planning ...

1 Blue Ridge Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and | 210 Interstate North Parkway SE Ste. 750 Atlanta, Georgia 30339 | O: 877-547-0346 7 Essential Elements of DemandForecasting, Planning & | 210 Interstate North Parkway SE Ste. 750 Atlanta, Georgia 30339 | O: 877-547-0346 7 Essential Elements of Demand forecasting , Planning & Replenishment INTRODUCTIONThis document is for people who make decisions about forecasting , replenishment, and supply chain management in distribution and retail document provides a high-level view of processes and principles that can increase revenue and profit, improve cash flow and reduce operating costs by improving your forecasting and attempts to fill the gap between the relatively small number of people formally trained in the principles of supply chain management and the majority who have you are a business owner or investor, a financial executive, a supply-chain manager or a hands-on forecaster or replenishment professional, this guide should help you see the opportunity for managing replenishment decisions more advice in this paper is useful whether or not you buy a replenishment system from Blue Ridge.

2 While systems from Blue Ridge provide a reasonably priced and cost-effective way to automate the processes and principles explained here, you may be able to master and execute many of the principles in other you decide to buy a forecasting and replenishment system, this guide can help you create a list of important functional capabilities to seek as you evaluate your ROLE OF INVENTORY IN RETAIL AND DISTRIBUTION The value you offer your customers is to provide them goods for Consumers appreciate the balance of product availability, customer service and cost. There are many consumers, each of whom has a relatively small requirement. Manufacturers won t source directly to consumers, or in the case of distributors to retailers or operators. Would be cost-prohibitive to buy directly from the manufacturer because of their relatively low volume. Lead times would be too long from a source other than your companyYour customers may buy from you, in part, because you offer information, insight, merchandising, training, or other value-added services.

3 But inventory is at the core of the value you offer your customers. It s what goes on the receipt when they give you their s also the opening for all of your future opportunities with the Essential Elements of Demand forecasting , Planning & ReplenishmentYour inventory is also likely to be both your biggest cost and at least one of your biggest physical assets, if not the biggest. Fortunately, it s the one asset over which you can exercise the most all of these reasons, inventory provides your best leverage to manage your business for higher revenue and AND REPLENISHMENT AS A DISCIPLINEI nnovators at IBM began studying inventory management as a science decades ago, before the broad acceptance of computer solutions. This original science has since been refined into specific niches, such as forecasting and replenishment, inventory optimization, broader supply chain management and IBM manager, Anders Herlitz, first documented a best-practice process to manage inventory for consistent product availability and cost- minimization.

4 While significant process complexities have been discovered, and decades of ever-advancing solutions have been applied, the principles of Herlitz discovery still apply today. They form the foundation on which any company can better understand and manage their supply chain | 210 Interstate North Parkway SE Ste. 750 Atlanta, Georgia 30339 | O: 877-547-0346 SEVEN Essential ELEMENTSH erlitz identified seven principles that are necessary to apply at an individual SKU and location level to assure optimal Demand fulfillment via replenishment:1. Demand Forecast Accuracy. First it must be accurately determined how much your customers will Lead-Time forecasting . Then accurately identify how long it takes to get the goods from your sources of Order-Cycle Optimization. Next determine how much inventory you should carry between orders, by balancing your cost of carrying inventory against the cost of acquiring Service-Level Strategy. Determine the level of in-stock performance you desire each of your SKUs to Replenishment Planning .

5 Build the basic orders to cover base Demand and achieve your SKU/location specific service-level goals. 6. Special-Order Considerations. Determine the appropriate increase in order quantities to cover uplifts in Demand due to promotions or other Demand -shaping events, or due to forward buying or other profit generating purchasing Order-Validity Assurance. Ensure that your orders are rounded to accomodate SKU rounding requirements; structured to meet supplier and logistics constraints; while assuring that inventory is positioned properly to assure product availability for future Essential Elements of Demand forecasting , Planning & ReplenishmentEach principle consists of multiple components. The following pages detail the principles and these components in the biggest initial discoveries in these seven principles is the insight that all successful forecasting and replenishment professionals engaged all of the principles for every order placed. The best forecasting and replenishment professionals conducted them in the above , it is necessary for a system that supports the forecasting and replenishment process to operate using at least these seven principles.

6 Otherwise, these systems and the professionals that use them are inclined to follow an intuitive process that yields sub-par PRINCIPLES ASSURE AT YOUR PERIL Here are some of the ways forecasting and replenishment solutions can go wrong. If they don t follow these principles systematically and in optimal order, they may: Omit important considerations that prevent applying a principle to enable best results Perform processes based on common practice or intuition that controvert the proven success of the seven principles Fail to apply one principle and thereby sub-optimize the information or process support required to effectively apply another Contradict the process foundation built in one principle by improperly applying a subsequent company may have experienced the pain of not employing these seven principles. Believe me, thousands omission or sub-optimization of any principle has a waterfall effect that causes not only stock outs, but also can at the same time cause unnecessary inventory, and logistics costs.

7 This is a situation that many companies use or misuse of the principles makes it difficult to assess what factors lead to poor performance. Lack of clarity on cause, can leave companies scratching their heads in trying to get to the root of the problem, also making it nearly impossible to solve the a seven principle environment, each principle leads to the next until an order is built that assures Demand fulfillment, minimizes required inventory, and optimizes logistics costs. These seven principles still influence the structure and workflow of the best of modern forecasting and replenishment the seven principles have existed for decades, many forecasting and replenishment systems have been designed without incorporating all of these principles, or require the user to determine how and in what order to employ them. Such systems leave companies or implementation consultants who lack the proper depth of expertise to devise their own process and create their own | 210 Interstate North Parkway SE Ste.

8 750 Atlanta, Georgia 30339 | O: 877-547-0346 7 Essential Elements of Demand forecasting , Planning & ReplenishmentYour current systems may not follow all of the principles described in these pages. Even so, you may be able to manually apply at least one, possibly more. The financial performance of your company will improve as your technology and processes engage more of these , by showing your forecasting and replenishment professionals how the seven principles guide them to perform to company goals more consistently and with less labor, you can help make their job more satisfying and enable your team to make your company more 1: GENERATE ACCURATE Demand FORECASTS The first and most important element that must underpin each of the principles and sound supply chain performance is to accurately predict how much of each SKU you will sell from each stocking location. Or to be more accurate, you need a prediction of how much you could sell if you had each SKU in stock when a customer wants to buy forecasting is an easy concept to understand.

9 However, many practical details can make it hard to do well. Here are several factors that complicate the process of Demand forecasting : The number of forecasts you must generate Lumpy or erratic Demand Trending Demand Promotional/causal Demand Seasonal or cyclical Demand Human intuition and emotion Demand for new SKUsThe following sections address each in more SKU IN EVERY LOCATION MUST HAVE AN INDIVIDUAL FORECASTTake the average number of SKUs you have in each location where you stock inventory. Now multiply it by the number of your stocking locations. This gives you your number of SKU/locations. If you stock 3,000 SKUs in each of 3 locations, you have 9,000 count is important because it identifies the number of separate data Elements that must be managed to create the required number of forecasts. Separate Demand forecasts must be updated regularly for every SKU/location. No small | 210 Interstate North Parkway SE Ste. 750 Atlanta, Georgia 30339 | O: 877-547-0346 7 Essential Elements of Demand forecasting , Planning & Replenishment As you increase the scale of your operation from hundreds of SKU/locations to tens of thousands or more, Demand forecasting must be FORECASTS CONSIDER HISTORICAL AND CAUSAL Demand IMPACTS The process of generating Demand forecasts is an exercise in statistics and probability.

10 Today, Big Data and predictive analytics play a growing part in providing a precise and granular look at consumer/customer Demand . While the assessment of this information requires complex and advanced algorithms, probability still plays a substantial part in generating a Demand forecast. So even with a very detailed look at the causes for customers to purchase goods, there is still a measure of inaccuracy that must be dealt today, human empirical knowledge (experience, or intuition) can come into play and introduce yet another factor, emotion, into the forecasting process. The reason that predictive analytics in fact have become so favored, is the ideal that the empirical data which drives humans can also drive technology, and without introducing the spectre of emotion or intuitive HIGHS AND LOWS OF forecasting TECHNIQUES When a forecasting solution attempts to predict Demand , either by looking at historical stochastic Demand patterns, or by looking at the causal factors that impacted Demand , it has inherent limitations that can impact the ability to produce an accurate, effective forecast.