A Climate Change Response Framework for the …

1 Report submitted to the Western Cape Department of Agriculture and the Western Cape Department of Environmental Affairs & Development Planning DRAFT FINAL 2 December 2015 A Climate Change Response Framework for the Agriculture Sector of the Western Cape Province (WCCCARF) 2 Climate Change Response Framework for Agriculture in the Western Cape Province Analysis and Writing Team: Prof Stephanie Midgley: African Climate & Development Initiative, University of Cape Town Dr Nadine Methner: African Climate & Development Initiative, University of Cape Town Anton Cartwright: Econologic Prof Guy Midgley: Stellenbosch University Prof Scott Drimie: Stellenbosch University and Food Lab Dr Tony Knowles: Cirrus Advisory Services cc Dr James Cullis: Aurecon South Africa (Pty) Ltd Dr Peter Johnston: Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town Prof Mark New: African Climate & Development Initiative, University of Cape Town Steering Committee: Dr Ilse Trautmann: Department of Agriculture Mr Andr Roux: Department of Agriculture Dr Mike Wallace: Department of Agriculture Mr Henk Cerfonteyn: Department of Agriculture Mr FC Basson: Department of Agriculture Ms Lize Jennings: WCDEA&DP Mr Goosain Isaacs: WCDEA&DP Ms Sarah Birch: WCDEA&DP Ms Leann Cloete-Beets: Department of Agriculture Ms Nicole Wagner.

2 Department of Agriculture 3 Climate Change Response Framework for Agriculture in the Western Cape Province Acknowledgements: Ms Joyene Isaacs: Head of Department, Department of Agriculture Mr Piet van Zyl: Head of Department, Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning The members of the Standing Committee on Economic Opportunities, Tourism and Agriculture. All stakeholders who participated in the public meetings and interviews. 4 Climate Change Response Framework for Agriculture in the Western Cape Province Executive summary The Western Cape Government (WCG) has recognised the important role of the agricultural sector in the provincial economy and its growth potential, in job creation, and in the socio-economic development needs of the rural areas.

3 At the same time, it has also identified the agricultural sector as being particularly vulnerable to a changing Climate . This calls for urgent action in guiding and supporting the sector to adapt to the unavoidable impacts of Climate Change , and to reduce its emissions of Greenhouse Gases. A strategic and co-ordinated approach is required for the development of long term resilience to Climate Change through Climate smart agriculture and for placing the sector on a clear pathway towards the Green Economy. The Western Cape Climate Change Response Framework for the Agricultural sector (WCCCARF) builds on the Western Cape Climate Change Response Strategy (WCCCRS), specifically the focus area Food Security which promotes Climate smart agriculture.

4 It also aligns closely with the current five-year Provincial Strategic Plan and the Department of Agriculture s Strategic Goals. One of the four Goals is Optimise the sustainable utilisation of water and land resources to increase Climate smart agricultural production . The WCCCARF is strongly premised on collaborative planning and action within and between the public and private sector, including National, Provincial and Local Government; organised agriculture and industry associations; farmers, agri-processors and agri-business; labour and civil society; and research and academic institutions. The Western Cape Government is implementing a number of initiatives which contribute to building Climate resilience in the agricultural sector but they will need to be scaled up and out, and integrated into a wider joined-up sectoral effort.

5 Only when Climate Change considerations are integrated and institutionalised into many different arenas of decision making which affect the agricultural sector, can the long term resilience of the sector to Climate Change be realised. The WCCCARF presents the roadmap for the joint effort to guide the agricultural sector into an uncertain climatic future. It seeks to ensure the continued growth and competitiveness of the whole value chain in a manner which is sustainable on all levels and allows innovation and new opportunities to develop out of the challenge at hand. Farmers are known for their ability to manage climatic and other risks. There is existing capacity in the agricultural sector of the Western Cape system to adapt to the added stresses of Climate Change .

6 Key assets within the sector include high levels of diversification of commodities and markets, a well-organised commercial sector which provides research, technical and marketing support, a very strong value chain, and excellent local research and training capacity. Local companies are already providing energy-saving low carbon solutions to farms and agri-businesses. These assets and solutions must be harnessed to stimulate innovation and technology transfer for 5 Climate Change Response Framework for Agriculture in the Western Cape Province adaptation and mitigation. The WCCCARF will ensure that the existing Response capacity is developed to its greatest potential.

7 It promotes responses that are practical, relevant and locally implementable over various time scales and budgets. For the development of the WCCCARF an intensive, multi-disciplinary integrative systems approach was taken which included the following components: An extensive stakeholder consultation process conducted across the province The formulation of a Vision A scenario analysis and gap analysis A Multi-Criteria Analysis of Response options Alignment with key National and Provincial policies, strategies and plans, and related provincial initiatives such as the Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios for the Energy Sector (2015). Climate scenarios suggest that changes in temperature and rainfall regime could be either gradual ( Trend scenario) or rapid ( Shock scenario), and in either case are likely to be combined with periodic extreme events of different spatial scale and impact, from short term local flooding and hail events through to longer duration regional droughts.

8 The Climate scenarios remain uncertain and decisions and responses need to be robust in the face of different possible trajectories. We are left with the choice/option of developing adaptive responses in a coordinated and anticipatory way that takes into account both Climate and socio-economic threats ( High Road ), and could facilitate resilience, or we can continue to adapt an uncoordinated and unbalanced way ( Low Road ). To achieve the High Road under considerable Climate uncertainty will require integration of Climate Change considerations into longer term resource and economic planning with discussions around possible radical transformation (continued scenario assessment with feedbacks).

9 An open discourse on agriculture s role in long-term sustainable and Climate resilient development is needed which may require transformative social and resource use approaches and a more radical departure from business-as-usual . Some difficult policy trade-off decisions may be required in this process, for example the allocation of scarce resources to industry versus agriculture. For the agricultural sector to travel safely on the High Road into the future the WCCCARF suggests a focus on the following four strategic focus areas (SFA): 1. Promote a Climate -resilient agricultural sector that is productive, competitive, equitable and ecologically sustainable across the value chain 2.

10 Strengthen effective Climate disaster risk reduction and management for agriculture 6 Climate Change Response Framework for Agriculture in the Western Cape Province 3. Strengthen monitoring, data and knowledge management and sharing, and lead strategic research for Climate Change and agriculture 4. Ensure good co-operative governance and institutional planning for effective Climate Change Response implementation for agriculture The WCCCARF will be executed through a commodity specific, spatially explicit and time bound Implementation Plan that is reinforced by specific Priority Projects under each SFA. These will be accompanied by a Monitoring and Evaluation Plan intended to track the progress on the High Road towards Climate resilience in the agricultural sector.