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A new model for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2021-2030 ...

Final report Small research and development activity project A new model for Vietnam s economic growth in 2021-2030 (investment targeting based on regional comparative advantages) and vision to 2050: Quantitative scenario assessment project number AGB/2020/122 date published 23 February 2021 prepared by Long Chu co-authors/ contributors/ collaborators Son Dang, Khoi Dang, Thai Nguyen, Quoc Anh Ho, Thuy Do, Duc Anh Dang, Chi Pho, Thang Tran approved by final report number FR2021-003 ISBN 978-1-922345-89-9 published by ACIAR GPO Box 1571 Canberra ACT 2601 Australia This publication is published by ACIAR ABN 34 864 955 427.

To support decisionmaking, it is important to have a - highquality quantitative assessment - of the possible economic outcomes in different scenarios. funded research This ACIAR-develops a modelling framework to quantitatively evaluate the outcome of the target-investment policy. In the past, some research was undertaken to estimate the impact of a

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Transcription of A new model for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2021-2030 ...

1 Final report Small research and development activity project A new model for Vietnam s economic growth in 2021-2030 (investment targeting based on regional comparative advantages) and vision to 2050: Quantitative scenario assessment project number AGB/2020/122 date published 23 February 2021 prepared by Long Chu co-authors/ contributors/ collaborators Son Dang, Khoi Dang, Thai Nguyen, Quoc Anh Ho, Thuy Do, Duc Anh Dang, Chi Pho, Thang Tran approved by final report number FR2021-003 ISBN 978-1-922345-89-9 published by ACIAR GPO Box 1571 Canberra ACT 2601 Australia This publication is published by ACIAR ABN 34 864 955 427.

2 Care is taken to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However ACIAR cannot accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in the publication. You should make your own enquiries before making decisions concerning your interests. Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) 2021 - This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from ACIAR, GPO Box 1571, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia, Final report: A new model for Vietnam s economic growth in 2021-2030 (target-investment policy based on regional comparative advantages) and vision to 2050: Quantitative scenario assessment Page ii Contents 1 Acknowledgments.

3 4 2 Executive 6 Background of this project .. 6 What has been done in this project .. 7 Contribution of this project .. 8 Summary of key findings .. 9 Policy implications and vision beyond 2030 .. 14 3 Introduction .. 17 4 Summary of project objectives and policy impacts in relation to ACIAR goals .. 19 5 impact of COVID-19 on the research project .. 20 6 Methodological review on quantitative impact evaluation .. 21 7 Non-technical summary of the modelling framework .. 23 8 Overview of Vietnam s regional economies.

4 27 Regional economic performance by output .. 27 Regional allocation of production factors .. 28 Labour income, rental rate, and agricultural land 28 9 Policy scenarios .. 30 Business-As-Usual scenario .. 30 Target-investment policy .. 31 10 Results .. 32 Impacts on real GDP .. 32 Impacts on sectoral growth .. 34 impact on regional economies .. 35 Impacts on the agricultural sector .. 36 11 Policy implications and visions beyond 2030 .. 39 12 Conclusions and recommendations for future 41 13 References.

5 42 14 Appendixes .. 46 Appendix A1: List of sectors and regions .. 46 Appendix A2: Mathematical specification of the Computable General Equilibrium 47 Appendix A3: Overview of Vietnam economic sectors in the base year 2018 .. 50 Final report: A new model for Vietnam s economic growth in 2021-2030 (target-investment policy based on regional comparative advantages) and vision to 2050: Quantitative scenario assessment Page 3 List of tables Table : Regional gain in GDP growth rate .. 12 Table 1. Mapping of regional economic advantages.

6 26 Table 2. Forecasted regional population growth rates .. 30 Table 3. BAU regional GDP growth rates .. 31 Table 4. Contribution of production factors to GDP growth rate .. 33 Table 5. Regional gain in GDP growth rate .. 36 Table A 1. List of economic sectors .. 46 Table A 2. List of provinces in each region .. 47 Table A 3. Sectoral share of gross output and GDP in 2018 (%) .. 50 Table A 4. Export and import structure in 2018 (%) .. 51 Table A 5. Structure of household income by source in 2018 .. 51 List of figures Figure : Regions of Vietnam (Decree 92/2006, clause 15).

7 8 Figure : Comparison of real GDP .. 9 Figure : Comparison of GDP growth rates .. 10 Figure : Current-value per-capita GDP under the US inflation rate of 2 per cent per annum .. 10 Figure : Sectoral annual growth rates .. 11 Figure : Impacts on the agricultural sector .. 12 Figure : Average real growth rate of salary in three agricultural hubs .. 13 Figure : Average growth rate of the value-add of agricultural land in three agricultural hubs .. 14 Figure 1: Regions of Vietnam (Decree 92/2006, clause 15).

8 23 Figure 2: Comparison of real GDP .. 32 Figure 3: Comparison of GDP growth rates .. 33 Figure 4: Current-value per-capita GDP under the US inflation rate of 2 per cent per annum .. 34 Figure 5: Sectoral annual growth rates .. 35 Figure 6: Impacts on the agricultural sector .. 37 Figure 7: Average real growth rate of salary in three agricultural hubs .. 37 Figure 8: Average growth rate of the value-add of agricultural land in three agricultural hubs .. 38 Final report: A new model for Vietnam s economic growth in 2021-2030 (target-investment policy based on regional comparative advantages) and vision to 2050: Quantitative scenario assessment Page 4 1 Acknowledgments We acknowledge the funding from ACIAR for this research.

9 We would like to thank experts from Vietnam s ministries and governmental departments for their insightful comments Final report: A new model for Vietnam s economic growth in 2021-2030 (target-investment policy based on regional comparative advantages) and vision to 2050: Quantitative scenario assessment Page 5 Author contribution statement: Long Chu and Son Dang conceived the research idea and led the research team in Australia and Vietnam respectively. Long Chu devised the modelling framework. Khoi Dang collected and compiled data.

10 Thai Nguyen, Quoc Anh Ho, and Thuy Do handled data processing and summarised literature. Long Chu, Son Dang, Khoi Dang, Duc Anh Dang, Chi Pho, and Thang Tran constructed business-as-usual projections. Son Dang and Long Chu constructed and formalised policy responses. Long Chu calibrated the model and simulated policy impacts. Long Chu, Son Dang, Khoi Dang, Thai Nguyen, Quoc Anh Ho wrote the report. Author affiliation: Long Chu, Khoi Dang, Thai Nguyen, Quoc Anh Ho, Thuy Do: the Australian National University (Canberra, Australia).


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