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A Prospectus - America 2050

A Prospectus 1 9/6/06 1:24:08 PM.. As never before, the nation's economic prospects are being threatened by global competitors, all of whom have created long-range strategies for growth and competitiveness. 2 9/6/06 1:24:15 PM. Executive Summary The America 2050 Strategy will provide a framework for the In the process of achieving these outcomes, we are harnessing one of public and private policies and investments needed to accommodate America 's great strengths the ability of private associations of business the nation's growth in the 21st century . This framework is urgently and civic leaders to work in partnership with government across economic needed in a time of rapid technological, geopolitical, demographic, sectors, political boundaries, and functional disciplines. We are creating and environmental change. As never before, the nation's economic bottom up strategies to guide the actions of local and state governments prospects are threatened by global competitors, all of whom have created and the business and civic sectors.

Six major trends will shape America’s future by mid-century. Together, they provide the impetus for a national strategy. New global trading patterns Rapid population growth and demographic change Inefficient land use Uneven and inequitable growth patterns within and

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Transcription of A Prospectus - America 2050

1 A Prospectus 1 9/6/06 1:24:08 PM.. As never before, the nation's economic prospects are being threatened by global competitors, all of whom have created long-range strategies for growth and competitiveness. 2 9/6/06 1:24:15 PM. Executive Summary The America 2050 Strategy will provide a framework for the In the process of achieving these outcomes, we are harnessing one of public and private policies and investments needed to accommodate America 's great strengths the ability of private associations of business the nation's growth in the 21st century . This framework is urgently and civic leaders to work in partnership with government across economic needed in a time of rapid technological, geopolitical, demographic, sectors, political boundaries, and functional disciplines. We are creating and environmental change. As never before, the nation's economic bottom up strategies to guide the actions of local and state governments prospects are threatened by global competitors, all of whom have created and the business and civic sectors.

2 Long-range strategies for growth and competitiveness. In the face of these At stake is a fundamental opportunity to organize and direct the challenges, America is flying blind. We have no national strategy to trillions of dollars of investments that will be made over the next generation sustain our success in the face of this competition. in infrastructure, housing and urban development, environmental protec- America 's third century urgently requires a new strategy to lay tion, and new energy systems and to harness these investments to improve the foundation for the nation's future competitiveness, sustainability, the competitiveness and livability of every part of the country. and quality of life. The National Committee for America 2050, composed of business and civic leaders, policy makers, and regional planners, was formed in response to this challenge. America 2050 is developing a framework for America 's future growth that identifies 10 America 2050 will result in or more emerging megaregions as the proper scale at which to make the investments that will maximize America 's competitiveness and broaden five major outcomes.

3 Opportunities for all members of our society. This framework will promote integrated investments in mobility, A. national framework for prosperity, growth, and environment, and economic development that are needed to guide the competitiveness nation's growth in the 21st century . It will provide capacity for growth by creating a world-class multimodal transportation system of new smart A world class multimodal transportation system highways, high-speed rail, airports, and seaports, all of these linked to concentrated developments at central hubs. It will preserve large Protected environmental landscapes and coastal estuaries environmental (or green infrastructure ) systems, strengthen metro- politan regions and urban centers, and alleviate concentrated poverty by E. conomic and social opportunities for all members expanding economic opportunities to bypassed areas. The federal role of society in land use will be reformed to support collaborations across regional boundaries, promote megaregional decision making, and utilize federal Globally competitive megaregions funding to ensure consistency with national objectives for growth.

4 Population Change, 2000-2050, by county Source: Woods & Poole 2002; University of Pennsylvania School of Design 2004. More than 15% loss 5 to 15% loss loss to 5% gain to 15% gain 15 to 50% gain 50 to 100% gain Over 100% gain . 3 9/6/06 1:24:17 PM. Problem Statement Our world is experiencing a transformation of historic propor- megaregions are becoming the new competitive units in the global tions. Open markets and information technology have broken down economy, characterized by the increasing movement of goods, people, and barriers, bringing us closer to our international neighbors. Businesses capital among their metropolitan regions. Just as metropolitan regions grew have been transformed by international outsourcing, taking advantage from cities to become the geographical units of the 20th century global of lower-cost labor, high-skilled workers, and global time differences. In economy, megaregions agglomerations of metropolitan regions with America , domestic goods are being edged out by the influx of cheaper integrated labor markets, infrastructure, and land use systems are rapidly goods from China and the Far East as service industries grow to occupy taking their place.

5 A greater share of the American economy. Whether our world is getting Within these megaregions, the problems of growing highway conges- flatter or growing smaller, these global trends have tremendous tion, overcrowded airports and seaports, loss of open space, and aging impacts on our economy, society, and environment at home. infrastructure systems will only be compounded by growing populations America is experiencing shifting dynamics of its own. By the year and rapidly expanding international trade. These constraints limit 2050, the population is expected to grow by almost half from its economic growth and degrade quality of life, essential parts of attracting 2000 level providing tremendous opportunities even as it creates and retaining both businesses and knowledge workers in a footloose global new challenges for communities and regions already reeling from playing field. growth-related concerns. But America is growing unevenly, exacerbating Meanwhile, the bypassed areas of the nation will continue to suffer population pressures in some areas while bypassing concentrated poverty from dwindling resource-based economies, population loss, and lack of in others.

6 Integration in global markets. A national strategy must address both the While the southern and western regions of the United States pressures of congestion in the growing megaregions and the forces of decline are leading the nation's growth, both from immigration and natural in bypassed places. births, vast regions like the Midwest, the Great Plains, and the Lower The astounding transformation of the global economy we are now Mississippi Valley will experience flat population growth or decline experiencing is as significant as the by 2050. Dense, established regions like the Northeast will also add social, economic, and spatial forces that population, but the constraints of its aging infrastructure systems will shaped America after World War II. If Opposite Chicago's limit economic potential. In the Southeast, places like Atlanta are we are to take advantage of these dynam- Millennium Park brings booming but with no end to the expansion of outer suburbs.

7 And at the ics of change, our nation must make the the natural world into metropolitan scale across the nation, regions continue to experience the critical investments necessary to provide a dense urban environ- problems of concentrated poverty in the inner city and inner suburbs, capacity for growth and quality of life ment. It incorporates while new suburban development consumes land at the urban fringe. for the next half century . Increasingly, green building prac- By mid- century , more than 70 percent of the nation's population these investments and interventions tices and was financed growth and economic growth is expected to take place in extended must occur at the megaregional scale, with public and private networks of metropolitan regions linked by environmental systems, which provides the necessary breadth of dollars. transportation networks, economies, and culture. These emerging resources to grow and compete globally. Megaregion and Non-Megaregion growth, 2000-2050.

8 Employment Population 2000 2025 2050 2000 2025 2050. Source: Woods & Poole 2002; RPA megaregion definitions Each square equals one million people. Megaregion Megaregion Non-Megaregion Non-Megaregion . 4 9/6/06 1:24:19 PM. 5 9/6/06 1:24:24 PM. America 's Future trends Six major trends will shape America 's future by mid- century . Together, they provide the impetus for a national Population Distribution by Age Cohorts strategy. Women Age Men New global trading patterns 75 +. Rapid population growth and demographic change Inefficient land use 65. U neven and inequitable growth patterns within and 55. among regions 1900. The mounting energy crisis and global climate change 45. M etropolitan infrastructure that is reaching the limits of 35. its capacity New Global Trading Patterns 25. From 1929 to 2005, foreign trade increased from 11 percent of the 15. national gross domestic product to 27 percent, a trend that is only likely to accelerate in the years ahead. The balance of payments, which 5.

9 Measures the flow of commodities in the economy, has tipped precipitously since the early 1990s towards a reliance on foreign goods. % 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6. Globalization is creating a new set of winners and losers, not only among nations and industries but also among regions. As global services and 85+. trade have replaced manufacturing as the leading sources of growth in 75. the United States, global gateways such as Miami, Los Angeles, Seattle, Houston, and New York have gained, often at the expense of traditional 65. 1950. manufacturing and agricultural regions in the heartland. 55. Already, the contours of global trading patterns that we began to adjust to in the 1980s and 90s are changing once more, and America 's 45. competitive position depends on keeping pace. Our competitive advantage in high-skill technology and service industries is increasingly 35. threatened by more educated workforces abroad and the greater mobility 25. of capital brought on by the dismantling of global barriers to trade.

10 Competitive advantage will belong to regions that can not only attract 15. high skilled workers and businesses that employ them, but places that 5. provide affordable housing options, a high quality of life, and transpor- tation hubs that act as gateways to the global economy. % 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6. Rapid Population Growth and Demographic Change 90+. While other industrialized countries, particularly in Europe, face 85. projected population losses in the coming fifty years, the United States is 75. 2000. poised for tremendous growth. In a single decade, the population of the United States grew 13 percent, from 248 million in 1990 to 281 million 65. in 2000. The United States Census Bureau estimates that the national 55. population will grow 49 percent from its 2000 level to reach 420 million people by 2050. 45. Continued population growth will also bring significant demographic changes, with implications for the way we plan our 35. cities, metropolitan regions, and transportation systems.


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