An Analysis of China’s Foreign Policy and National ...

1 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED An Analysis of China s Foreign Policy and National security decision - making support structure (U) Date of Publication: 1 June 2005 This document was prepared by the Counterintelligence Campaign Management Integrated Threat Office, Counterintelligence / Law Enforcement Center, Counterintelligence Field Activity, Department of Defense UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED An Analysis of China s Foreign Policy and National security decision - making support structure (U) Date of Publication: 1 June 2005 Information Cutoff Date: 10 April 2005 This document was prepared by the Counterintelligence Campaign Management Integrated Threat Office, Counterintelligence / Law Enforcement Center, Counterintelligence Field Activity, Department of Defense Product Requested By Strategic Analysis and Operational Planning Office Counterintelligence / Law Enforcement Center Counterintelligence Field Activity Department of DefenseUNCLASSIFIED iii UNCLASSIFIED This Page Left Intentionally BlankUNCLASSIFIED iv UNCLASSIFIED An Analysis of China s Foreign Policy and National security decision - making support structure (U)

2 This document was prepared by the Counterintelligence Campaign Management Integrated Threat Office, Counterintelligence / Law Enforcement Center, Counterintelligence Field Activity, Department of Defense This document was prepared under the direction of: Philip B. Ferguson (703) 699-7046 DSN: 332-6068 x. 7046 Chief, Strategic Analysis and Operational Planning Office Shawn Sullivan (703) 699-7051 DSN: 332-6068 x. 7051 Deputy Chief, East Asia Integrated Threat Division John Andrews (703) 699-7001 DSN: 332-6068 x. 7001 Director, CI Campaign Management Integrated Threat Office Author: Richard A.

3 Kaplan (703) 706-2279 DSN: 235-2279 Research & Data Collection: Mary Ann Mancine (703) 699-7909 DSN: 332-6068 x. 7909 Editor: Vicki Kinney (703) 699-7920 DSN: 332-6068 x. 7920 Cover Design & Layout: Jennifer A. Newman (703) 699-7015 DSN: 332-6068 x. 7015 The analytical interpretations and judgments contained in this study are those of the author. This study is based upon open-source books, articles and other documents developed through the academic community and government research institutions. The analytical interpretations and judgments in this study are subject to change or modification based on the development of new information on this subject.

4 Questions or comments concerning this study should be referred in writing to the Department of Defense, Counterintelligence Field Activity (ATTN: DCC) 251 18th Street, Suite 600, Arlington, Virginia 22202 UNCLASSIFIED v UNCLASSIFIED This Page Left Intentionally BlankUNCLASSIFIED vi UNCLASSIFIED Table of Contents Page Table of Contents vi Acronym List ix Key Facts and Judgments

5 Xii Section I China s Foreign Policy and National security decision - making Institutions 2 Overview 2 The Power structure of the People s Republic of China 3 The Foreign / National security Policy decision - making structure 4 The Central Leadership 4 The Paramount Leader and the Leadership Nuclear Circle 5 The Politburo and Its Standing Committee 5 The Secretariat 7 The CCP Central Committee Foreign Affairs Leading Small Group 7 The Central Bureaucracies 9 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs 10 Foreign Policy Implementation 10 Emerging Trends in Chinese Foreign Policy 11 decision - making Methodology 11 Summary 13 Section II Organization of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs 14 Overview

6 14 Organization of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Bureaucracy 14 Sources of Information for decision -Makers 17 The ID Fourth Division 17 Foreign Policy Initiation 18 Foreign Policy Coordination 19 Subversion of Established Policies 20 Section III - decision - making in the People s Liberation Army High Command 22 The Central Core 22 The General Staff Department 22 Interaction Between the Military and Civilian decision - making Processes 24 Summary 28 UNCLASSIFIED vii UNCLASSIFIED Table of Contents Page Section IV The Future Evolution of China s Foreign Policy

7 making System 30 The Great Leap Forward 30 The Complexity of the International Environment: The Reliance on Information for decision - making 30 The Evolving Future 31 Section V The Role of Think Tanks in the Formulation of China s National security and Foreign Policy decision - making 32 Overview 32 The Development of Think Tanks 32 structure of Think Tanks 35 Government Research Institutions 36

8 University-Based Think Tanks 39 Independent Research Institutions 40 Summary 41 Section VI Military-Related Think Tanks and Research Institutions In China 44 Overview 44 The Role of Military Research Institutions 44 Intelligence Analysis Research Institutions 46 Weapons Research and Arms Control Institutions 47 Exchange-Related Research Institutions 48 Research Related Institutions 49 Summary 50 Appendix A China s National security and Foreign Policy decision - making support Institutions 52 Chinese Foreign & Defense Policy Authors at Seven Main National security and Foreign Policy research Institutions 52 China Institute for Contemporary International Relations 54 China Institute of International Studies and Shanghai Institute of International Studies 54 Chinese Academy of Social Science 55 Academy of Military Science 56 National

9 Defense University 59 Chinese Society for Strategy and Management 60 Foundation for International Strategic Studies 61 UNCLASSIFIED viii UNCLASSIFIED Table of Contents Page Commission on Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense (COSTIND) 61 China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation 62 China Institute of International Strategic Studies 63 Appendix B China s Military Capabilities 66 Introduction 66 Intercontinental Nuclear Forces 66 Regional Nuclear Forces 68 Short-Range.

10 Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons 69 Ground Forces and Tanks 69 Air Forces and Combat Aircraft 71 Submarines 74 Amphibious Assault Ships 77 Potential Chinese Uses of Armed Force Against Taiwan 78 Combined Arms Attack and Invasion 79 Missile Attack 79 Bloc