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An Estimate of the U.S. Population Living in 100-Year ...

An Estimate of the Population Living in 100-YearCoastal Flood Hazard AreasMark Crowell{, Kevin Coulton{, Cheryl Johnson1*, Jonathan Westcott{, Doug Bellomo{,Scott Edelman{{, and Emily Hirsch{{Federal EmergencyManagement Agency1800 South Bell StreetArlington, VA Water5933 NE Win Sivers DriveSuite 201 Portland, OR 97220, Water2835 Brandywine RoadMcGill Building, Suite 102 Atlanta, GA 30341, {{AECOM Water4905 Koger BoulevardSuite 270 Greensboro, NC 27407, , M.; COULTON, K.; JOHNSON, C.; WESTCOTT, J.; BELLOMO, D.; EDELMAN, S., and HIRSCH, E., Estimate of the Population Living in 100-Year coastal flood of coastal Research,26(2), 201 211. West Palm Beach (Florida), ISSN Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recently completed a coastal demographics study of the UnitedStates and territories.}}}}}}}}}}

An Estimate of the U.S. Population Living in 100-Year Coastal Flood Hazard Areas Mark Crowell{, Kevin Coulton{, Cheryl Johnson1*, Jonathan Westcott {, Doug Bellomo , Scott Edelman{{, and Emily Hirsch{ {Federal EmergencyManagement Agency 1800 South Bell Street

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1 An Estimate of the Population Living in 100-YearCoastal Flood Hazard AreasMark Crowell{, Kevin Coulton{, Cheryl Johnson1*, Jonathan Westcott{, Doug Bellomo{,Scott Edelman{{, and Emily Hirsch{{Federal EmergencyManagement Agency1800 South Bell StreetArlington, VA Water5933 NE Win Sivers DriveSuite 201 Portland, OR 97220, Water2835 Brandywine RoadMcGill Building, Suite 102 Atlanta, GA 30341, {{AECOM Water4905 Koger BoulevardSuite 270 Greensboro, NC 27407, , M.; COULTON, K.; JOHNSON, C.; WESTCOTT, J.; BELLOMO, D.; EDELMAN, S., and HIRSCH, E., Estimate of the Population Living in 100-Year coastal flood of coastal Research,26(2), 201 211. West Palm Beach (Florida), ISSN Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recently completed a coastal demographics study of the UnitedStates and territories.}}}}}}}}}}

2 As part of this study, FEMA estimated the United States Population subject to the 1% annualchance (100 y) coastal flood hazard as mapped by FEMA. This determination followed a three-step process: (1) create anational digital flood hazard database by compiling the best available coastal -proximate, digital flood-hazard- area datausing FEMA data sets; (2) develop a systematic method to separate coastal and riverine flood hazard areas andincorporate this boundary into the digital flood hazard database; and (3)combine the year 2000 census data with thedigital flood hazard database using a geographic information system. This enabled estimates of the populationsubject to the 1% annual chance coastal flood. The analysis was conducted at the census block-group level, with censusblock-group populations (permanent residents) assumed to be uniformly distributed across each block group.

3 The resultsdemonstrate that approximately of the Population lives in areassubject to the 1% annual chance coastal floodhazard. It must be emphasized, however, that these numbers are based on the1% annual chance (100 y) coastal coastal floods less frequent than the 1% chance annual flood have occurred in the on numerous less-frequent coastal flood events were considered in this study, suchas the annual chance (500 y) coastal floodor, if seasonal (vacations) Population were considered, then a much greater percentage of the Population would bedetermined as subject to coastal INDEX WORDS: coastal Population , FEMA, Flood Insurance Rate Maps, FIRMs, National FloodInsurance Program, many people live in coastal areas? With the growingconcern about global warming and its potential effects oncoastal ecosystems and infrastructure, information and datathat can address and answer this question are undeniablyimportant.

4 Unfortunately, published data and information oncoastal Population are limited and usually represent the upperbounds of a wide range of possible coastal - Population statistics(Crowellet al., 2007). Moreover, these limited primary sourcesare often indiscriminately and inappropriately cited in variousacademic papers, technical reports, the popular press, andother media. Because of the paucity of coastal demographicinformation, in particular the Population subject to coastalflooding, we have developed methods to approximate areas inthe United States that are subject to the 1% annual chance(100 y) coastal flood and to Estimate the Population livingtherein. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) and Flood InsuranceStudies were used as the primary bases for this number of estimates of the coastal Population havebeen published in a variety of sources over the past severalyears:NCullitonet al.

5 (1990) Estimate that almost one-half [45percent] of our Population now lives in coastal areas. Theauthors identify 451 counties as coastal counties (whichinclude counties bordering the Great Lakes); however, it isnot clear what criteria were used to make this , it appears that the criteria used to determine coastalcounties may be inconsistent, as the publication states that for this report, coastal counties are those identified by eitherthe Federal coastal Zone Management , or byindividual state coastal management programs. NCulliton (1998) and Crossettet al.(2004) Estimate thatthere are 673 coastal counties and that 53% of the : received 30 June 2009;accepted 1 July 2009.* Present address: DHI, Inc.

6 , 3455 Peachtree Road NE, 5th Floor,Atlanta, GA of coastal Research262201 211 West Palm Beach, FloridaMarch 2010population lives in these counties. A coastal county isdefined in these publications as (1) a county with at least15% of its total land area located within the nation s coastalwatershed or (2) a county with a portion of its land thataccounts for at least 15% of a coastal cataloging unit. TheNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) defines a coastal cataloging unit as a drainagebasin that falls entirely within or straddles an EstuarineDrainage area or coastal Drainage area . Typically, mostEDAs or CDAs are composed of several complete catalogingunits (drainage basins) ( Census Bureau, 2009a).

7 Notethat Culliton (1998) and Crossettet al.(2004) use the samedefinition of coastal county and list the same countiesidentified as coastal . (Hereinafter, Culliton refers toboth Culliton [1998] and Crossettet al.[2004].)NHinrichsen (1998, 1999) estimates that 55% 60% of Population lives in 772 counties adjacent to theAtlantic and Pacific oceans, the Gulf of Mexico, and theGreat Lakes. It is unclear what criteria were used toidentify these 772 United States Census Bureau (using the 2000 census)notes that of the Population lives within 50 miof the coastline. The Census Bureau clarifies these figuresby noting that for this calculation, the coastline was anyland that borders the ocean and any of its saltwatertributaries, including bays and tidal rivers, and the GreatLakes ( Census Bureau, 2009b).

8 NThe National Ocean Economics Program (NOEP) main-tains a webpage (NOEP, 2008) where one can select severaldifferent interactive parameters to determine coastalpopulations. These parameters include the use of areasdefined by zip codes, in which the boundaries are located immediately adjacent to an ocean, Great Lake, or includedriver or bay, and by coastal zone counties, where suchcounties are defined using several different criteria (suchas watershed based, contiguity with the ocean and/or GreatLakes, and other criteria).Recognizing that the majority of peer-reviewed publisheddata on coastal demographics were limited and usuallyrepresent the upper bounds of a wide range of possiblecoastal- Population statistics, Crowellet al.

9 (2007) presentedan alternative method to determine coastal Population basedon whether a county bordered the coast (or associated shelteredwater bodies) or contained velocity zones (V Zones) as definedby FEMA. As explained below, V Zones are a type of floodhazard area subject to coastal flooding and high-velocitywaters, or are determined based on the presence of primaryfrontal dunes. The Federal Emergency Management Agencyrefers to these areas as coastal High Hazard Areas. Thus, if acounty did not border the coast but contained a V Zone nomatter how small that county was also considered a coastalcounty. Given these criteria, and using 2000 Census Bureaudata, the authors note that there are 364 coastal countiescontaining 37% of the total Population when the GreatLakes are included, or 281 coastal counties containing 30% ofthe Population when the Great Lakes are excluded (thesefigures are based on permanent residents and include Alaskaand Hawaii but exclude the territories).

10 Crowellet al.(2007) also applied this methodology to smaller census blockgroups in order to get a more-refined Estimate using the bordering the coast /V Zone criteria. Census block groupsusually contain between 600 and 3000 persons ( CensusBureau, 2009c). The results indicated that there are 9,790,000people Living in coastal census block groups (including theGreat Lakes) defined using these criteria, or 3% of the Population . These results did not include the in order to provide a more-direct comparison toCulliton (1998). Figure 1 displays a map of the United Statesshowing coastal counties, reflecting the Crowellet al.(2007)criteria (dark gray counties) as well as the Culliton (1998)criteria (light and dark gray counties).


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