ASEAN 2025年の展望と課題

1 1 ASEAN ASEAN 2025 ASEAN 2025 Vision and Challenges 3 December, 2014 ASEAN Akifumi Kuchiki, Professor, College of Bioresource Sciences, Nihon University Koichi Ishikawa, Professor, Institute for Asia Studies, Asia University Takashi Komori, Deputy Director, Planning and ASEAN Partnership Division, Southeast Asia and Pacific Department , JICA 2 Outline of Presentation Outline of ASEAN2025 Survey Report 2. 2025 ASEAN ASEAN 2025: Vision and Challenges Prof. Akifumi Kuchiki 3. 2015 ASEAN ASEAN Economic Community 2015: Vision and Challenges Prof. Koichi Ishikawa 4. JICA ASEAN JICA s Cooperation in ASEAN Mr. Takashi Komori ASEAN 3 ASEAN2025 Outline of ASEAN2025 Survey Report 1.

2 Purpose of the Survey 2015 AEC ASEAN 2025 ASEAN Present an overall picture of the AEC as of 2015 in order to analyze changes concerning the future of ASEAN and predict the status of the region in 2025. AEC 2025 ASEAN Identify the challenges that are likely to arise between the establishment of the AEC and 2025 and present proposed measures that ASEAN should take in order to overcome them. 2. ASEAN Dialogues with experts in ASEAN and Japan throughout the survey period ASEAN 2025 The Future of Asia Special Symposium ASEAN 2025 Vision and Challenges for ASEAN in Future ASEAN ASEAN Dialogues with Ambassadors of Missions to ASEAN and ASEAN Secretariat Final Report of Data collection survey on ASEAN 2025 is available at: 2025 ASEAN ASEAN 2025.

3 Vision and Challenges 4 ASEAN GDP Transition of ASEAN s GDP total GDP GDP share GDP (Billion USD) 5 2025 ASEAN ASEAN in 2025 Economic Forecast Forecast Indonesia Thailand Philippines Malaysia Singapore Vietnam Myanmar Cambodia Brunei Laos 1, Forecast 2015 5% 2025 GDP 2012 2 4 6,282 4 ASEAN GDP 7 4 From 2015, the GDP will grow by 5% on a yearly basis and total GDP would reach USD 4,628 billion in 2025. The GDP share of ASEAN -4 (Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, and Malaysia) is forecasted to be more than 70% of ASEAN s total GDP. Notably, Indonesia s GDP comprises 40% of the ASEAN s total GDP. 6 2015 2025 GDP CLMV 8-9% ASEAN CLMV ASEAN Per capita GDP growth rates are forecasted as 8-9% for CLMV, and for ASEAN -6 for the period from 2015 to 2025.

4 As CLMV has been showing higher GDP growth rates than the other 6 ASEAN countries in recent years, the development gaps among ASEAN countries are gradually narrowing. GDP Average GDP growth rate (2015-2025) (GDP per Capita difference between Singapore & Myanmar) times GDP Forecast of GDP per capita 2025 ASEAN Development Gap among ASEAN Region 2025 ASEAN ASEAN in 2025 Economic Forecast GDP 61 36 7 20102025 Upper class1952 Upper middle class48142 Lower middle class227273 Lower (million Upper class Household disposable income is more than $35,000/year Upper middle class Household disposable income is from $15,000 to $34,999/year Lower middle class Household disposable income is from $5,000 to $14,999/year Lower class Household disposable income is lower than $4,999/year ASEAN 1% 2025 6 9,500 The ASEAN population is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1%.)

5 From around 610 million people in 2012 to 695 million in 2025. Working age population also glows especially in Indonesia and the Philippines. The percentage of the middle and higher income is expected to increase from in 2010 to in 2025. 2025 ASEAN ASEAN in 2025 Population Population trends (thousand) and growth rates by country ASEAN Population ratio of ASEAN (2025) (Source: United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision Medium Fertility) 20122025 AverageAnnualGrowthIndonesia246,864 282,011 ,707 119,219 Nam90,796 99,811 ,785 67,900 ,797 57,650 ,240 34,956 ,865 18,120 PDR6,646 8,253 ,303 6,334 478 Total610,415 694,732 (Source: Euronominor) 2013-2025 Working-age population growth Increased # of Wokring-Age PopulationIndonesia29,274,317 Philippines15,392,299 Viet Nam5,167,986 Malaysia3,571,811 Myanmar3,537,818 Cambodia1,867,996 Lao PDR1,157,780 Brunei40,738(Source: Created by study team based on the United Nations Population Division.)

6 World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision Medium Fertility) Changes in population by income group 8 ( Source: Euromonitor International 2014) Billion USD ASEAN Size of Domestic Market in ASEAN Countries Billion USD ASEAN 4 ASEAN s trade volume (total of exports and imports) will increase by times between 2010 and 2025. Domestic market of ASEAN countries will increase by 4 times especially in Indonesia and Viet Nam. 2025 ASEAN ASEAN in 2025 Trade and Domestic Market (Source: Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai (2012), The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment, Policy Analysis Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics and East-West Center.) ASEAN ASEAN trade forecast 9 2004 97% 2030 85% The consumption of primary energy is expected to increase sharply along with their economic growth (increase by fold in Viet Nam, fold in the other countries).

7 ASEAN s food self-sufficiency rates will decrease from 97% in 2004 to 85% in 2030. 2025 ASEAN ASEAN in 2025 Resources (Energy and Foods) 1 Primary energy consumption forecasts (Source: Created by study team based on Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (2013)) 2times Self-Sufficient food self-sufficiency rates of the major countries and regions (Source: Created by study team based on ADBI Agriculture and food Security in Asia by 2030 ) ASEAN 2004 2030 ASEAN s food self-sufficiency rate according to item (2004, 2030) 2025 Challenges for 2025 10 11 2025 Challenges for 2025 Aging Urbanization Changes in the urbanization rate +550,000 +390,000 +440,000 +400,000 +130,000 +150,000 +70,000 Forecasts of vehicle ownership by city 2025 ASEAN 52% Urban population will increase by times between 2010 and 2025.

8 52% of population in ASEAN live in urban areas in 2025. Vehicle population also increases along with urbanization. 2015 ASEAN Growth of elderly populations will be accelerated from 2015. Singapore & Thailand will enter Aged Society and most of ASEAN countries will enter Aging Society. Aging Society Population Aging Rate: above 7% Super-Aged Society Population Aging Rate: above 21% Aged Society Population Aging Rate: above14% Japan25 Singapore22 Thailand20 China25 Viet Nam17 Brunei12 Malaysia24 Myanmar24 Indonesia22 Cambodia26 India31 Philippines35 Lao PDR1920242055203520702038205720222046202 3204520222048201620332020203220212045199 920212002202220012026(A)Aging Society(B)Aged SocietyDoubling Time(B)-(A)19701995 Year of transition from aging to aged society Percentage of aged population by country 12 Infrastructure - Hard Infrastructure - Soft Development of soft infrastructure ( transport and trade facilitation) will lead to the more competitive region in the global community.

9 ADB 2010 2020 1 ADB estimates that $1,000 billion (2010-2020) needs to be spent on infrastructure to maintain ASEAN 's current economic growth trajectory. 2012 2013 Number of days required for exports (2012 and 2013) Unit : %)(Unit : Millions)Population without electricity (Millions, round numbers)Electrification rate(%) Population without electricity and Electrification rate(%) (Source: ADBI (2010), Estimating Demand for Infrastructure in Energy, Transport, Telecommunications, Water and Sanitation in Asia and the Pacific: 2010-2020 , UN ESCAP database) 10 Infrastructure demand (2010-2020, billion USD) ( Source: World Energy Outlook(2011)) ( Source: World Bank, IFC (2013) Doing Business 2014 Economy Profile ) Doing Business Ranking on the ease of doing business 1618991081201371591820204060801001201401 60180200 Rankings among 189 economies(Source: The World Bank and the International Finance Corp.

10 (2013), Doing Business 2014 ) 2025 Challenges for 2025 13 Disparities Higher Education 40 Though development gap among ASEAN countries is narrowing, disparities within a country increased in some countries. Gini ratios above 40 are precursors of social unrest and instability. GINI coefficients (Source) World Bank Poverty and Inequality Database Quality of higher education is crucial for sustainable growth. In terms of the number of researchers, Malaysia is at one-third, and Thailand and other countries are at less than one-tenth the levels of Singapore and Japan. (Source: Created by study team based on Quacquarelli Symonds Limited, UNESCAP) Number of top 450 universities per million people (age 15-19) (2013) Number of Researchers (per 1,000 workers) 2025 Challenges for 2025 14 Demographic Bonus ends Labor supply / demand 2018 2018 The Unemployment rate will be particularly low for Thailand and Singapore decline of working age population will start from 2018.