Transcription of Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation ...
1 Prepared for Department of Environment, Government of Maharashtra Submitted by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) Final Report Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Maharashtra: Maharashtra State Adaptation Action Plan on Climate Change (MSAAPC) Maharashtra Climate Change project: Final report ii The Energy and Resources Institute 2014 Suggested format for citation T E R I. 2014 Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Maharashtra: Maharashtra State Adaptation Action Plan on Climate Change (MSAAPC) New Delhi: The Energy and Resources Institute.
2 302 pp. [Project Report No. 2010GW01] For more information Project Monitoring Cell T E R I Tel. 2468 2100 or 2468 2111 Darbari Seth Block E-mail IHC Complex, Lodhi Road Fax 2468 2144 or 2468 2145 New Delhi 110 003 Web i i India India +91 Delhi (0)11 Maharashtra Climate Change project: Final report iiiTable of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .. 71. Introduction .. 7 2. Methodology .. 7 3. Climate Change projections .. 9 4. Sector-specific Impacts, Recommendations and Action Plans .. 16 Agriculture.
3 16 Water resources .. 19 Health .. 21 Ecosystems & livelihoods .. 22 Energy & infrastructure .. 25 Cross-sectoral .. 25 5. Sector-specific departmental responsibilities .. 26 1. INTRODUCTION .. 29 Global and national concern related to future Climate Change .. 29 India s National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) .. 30 Need for the Maharashtra State Adaptation Action Plan on Climate Change (MSAAPCC) .. 32 Developing the MSAAPCC: vision, guiding principles, the process, and partnerships33 Vision .. 33 Approach and Guiding Principles.
4 33 Process of developing the MSAAPCC .. 34 Distinguishing features of the MSAAPCC .. 37 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC, ECOLOGICAL AND Climate PROFILE OF MAHARASHTRA .. Geography .. 39 Socio-economic conditions .. 40 41 Ecology .. 45 3. Climate Change TRENDS AND MODEL-BASED PROJECTIONS FOR MAHARASHTRA .. Introduction: All-India trends and projections .. 47 Methodology for Climate modelling for Maharashtra .. 50 Objectives .. 51 Data Sources .. 51 District-wise analysis of observational data .. 52 Model 53 Future Regional Climate Projections over Maharashtra for 2030s.
5 57 Rainfall projections .. 57 Extreme rainfall projections .. 59 Temperature projections .. 61 Extreme temperature projections .. 64 Future Regional Climate Projections over Maharashtra for distant future time periods: 2050s and 2070s .. 67 4. SEA LEVEL RISE (SLR): OBSERVED TRENDS AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS .. Historical analysis of sea level rise for Maharashtra coast using tide gauge data 72 Analysis of mean sea level using AVISO satellite data .. 73 Assessment of future sea level rise .. 75 5. SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2030S, 2050S AND 2070S.
6 Demographic projections .. 78 GDP projections .. 79 6. LAND USE AND LAND COVER Change PROJECTIONS FOR 2030S .. Current status of land use and land cover (LULC) .. 82 Projected changes in LULC in 2030s .. 82 Methodology .. 82 Results .. 84 Measuring Vulnerability using indicator-based approach .. 85 Developing Macro-level Vulnerability Index for the state of Maharashtra .. 87 Maharashtra Climate Change project: Final report Indicator Selection .. 88 Unit of Analysis .. 89 Data collection .. 89 Data Analysis and Index Development.
7 89 Index Calculation .. 91 District-wise Vulnerability index and ranking .. 92 Approach for Case Study Site Selection .. 97 Additional case study of Mumbai .. 98 8. Adaptation FRAMEWORK AND PRIORITY SETTING .. 1009. WATER RESOURCES IN MAHARASHTRA: Climate Change IMPACTS AND Adaptation Water resources in Maharashtra .. 103 Water resources potential: surface water and ground 103 Floods and droughts .. 104 Climatic and non-climatic risks to water resources in the State .. 105 Potential impacts of future Climate Change on water resources in Maharashtra.
8 106 impact of Climate Change on surface runoff in Maharashtra .. 107 Modelling 107 Results .. 109 Adaptation needs and priorities for Maharashtra s water resources: ongoing government initiatives and limitations .. 111 Key recommendations for water resources sector .. 113 Adaptation action plan for water resources sector .. 113 Adaptation Action 1: Sustainable ground water management .. 115 Adaptation Action 2: Retain and conserve the Riparian buffer around the wetlands for improved surface runoff management.
9 117 10. AGRICULTURE IN MAHARASHTRA: Climate Change IMPACTS AND Adaptation .. Key trends in agriculture area, production and yield .. 120 Geographical regions .. 121 Overall trends .. 124 Trends in coverage of selected crops .. 132 Analysis of Climate thresholds for selected major crops produced in Maharashtra state .. 140 Methodology .. 140 Analysis .. 142 Conclusions .. 150 Climate Change impacts on select Food Crops .. 151 Crop modelling- Rice as an example .. 155 Indicative results on productivity of selected crops in the future based on Climate modeling results.
10 167 Climate Change impacts on horticulture .. 174 impact on grapes .. 174 Impacts on oranges .. 175 impact on mangoes .. 175 Climate Change impacts on livestock .. 176 Climate Change impacts on marine fisheries .. 177 Implications for food security .. 179 Adaptation strategies for Maharashtra s agriculture sector .. 182 Key recommendations .. 182 Adaptation action plan .. 183 Adaptation action: Improve farmers access to Climate services .. 183 Adaptation action: Improve farmers access to suitable crop varieties.
