Automotive Powertrain Technologies through 2016 and …

1 Automotive Powertrain Technologies through 2016 and 2025. University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Conference. Marketing New Powertrain Technologies : Strategies in Transition February 15, 2012. Mark Kuhn Ricardo Strategic Consulting Ricardo plc 2012. Agenda Introduction to Ricardo Technology Roadmaps passenger Car fuel Economy Improvement and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential Non-Confidential UMTRI 15 February 2012 Ricardo plc 2012 2. Introduction to Ricardo Strategic Consulting Ricardo is one of the world's leading Automotive consulting companies Established Success Factors International Presence Focused on value-adding services Germany Solving key industry issues UK.

2 Program delivery as a core competence USA Japan Investment in people and technology China Critical mass with revenues exceeding $330M India and over 1500 people Independent and long established (1908). Value-Adding Capabilities Global Client Base (selection). Strategy Consulting Strategy development M&A support Efficiency Improvement Cost Optimization Product development Procurement strategy Manufacturing &. Technical supply chain support service R&D, Industry Product and Technology Strategy Know-How Vehicles High performance Transmissions Motor sport exhaust systems & drivelines Engines Control & Software Electronics Product Products/. Engineering Production ######.# Ricardo plc 2011 3.

3 Agenda Introduction to Ricardo Technology Roadmaps passenger Car fuel Economy Improvement and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential Non-Confidential UMTRI 15 February 2012 Ricardo plc 2012 4. Future Trends in Vehicle Technology Regulation is driving new technology & innovation to higher efficiency Accelerating the rate of technology introduction to passenger cars Trend is now continuing into the commercial vehicle space in US, Japan and Europe passenger car efficiency dominated by ICE Technologies in the short/med term There is no silver bullet - we will need a range of Technologies to meet targets A better understanding of life cycle emissions will enable more informed choices Electrification is a longer term trend but we need a breakthrough in batteries Both evolutionary and disruptive Technologies are likely to be successful Intelligent Electrification is a key approach to enable more radical ICE technology Mechanical Hybrids could offer substantial cost reductions over electric systems Non-Confidential UMTRI 15 February 2012 Ricardo plc 2012 5.

4 Future Trends in Vehicle Technology Regulation is driving new technology & innovation to higher efficiency Accelerating the rate of technology introduction to passenger cars Trend is now continuing into the commercial vehicle space in US, Japan and Europe passenger car efficiency dominated by ICE Technologies in the short/med term There is no silver bullet - we will need a range of Technologies to meet targets A better understanding of life cycle emissions will enable more informed choices Electrification is a longer term trend but we need a breakthrough in batteries Both evolutionary and disruptive Technologies are likely to be successful Intelligent Electrification is a key approach to enable more radical ICE technology Mechanical Hybrids could offer substantial cost reductions over electric systems Non-Confidential UMTRI 15 February 2012 Ricardo plc 2012 6.

5 Transportation sector is 33% of total CO2 contribution. Nearly 65% comes from gasoline engines for personal vehicles CO2 Emissions from Fossil fuel Combustion by fuel Consuming End-Use Sector Million metric tons Co2 equiv. 6000. 5000 Commercial Residential 4000. Industrial 3000 Transportation 2000. 1000. 65% from gasoline engines, 0 in personal transportation 1990. 2000. 2005. 2009. Year Source: EPA US GHG Inventory 2011 Complete Report Non-Confidential UMTRI 15 February 2012 Ricardo plc 2012 7. Regulatory Framework The growth of both regulation and targets for Low Carbon Vehicles sets a major challenge for the road transport sector 270. US-LDV USA, EU, Canada, Australia, China & Japan.

6 Grams CO2 per kilometer, normalized to NEDC. 250. California-LDV. Canada-LDV Legislation / agreements for 230 EU fuel economy or CO2. 210. Japan USA has proposed target of China mpg by 2016 . 190 S. Korea mpg by 2025. Australia 170 Implemented over entire country by EPA. 150. EU Proposal for Vans 130. US 2025: 175 g/km from 2014-16. Solid dots and lines: historical performance;. 135 g/km by 2020. 107. 110 Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets China 2020: 117. Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets Hollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal Japan 2020: 105. EU 2020: 95 Challenging Targets: 90. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 US pa to 2025. [1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario.

7 If including other fuel types, the target will be lower. [2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles. EU pa to 2020. MPG MPG. 25 MPG US CAF US CAF . US CAFE 30% impr. 54% impr. fuel cons. fuel cons. Source: ;. Non-Confidential UMTRI 15 February 2012 Ricardo plc 2012 8. Regulation will continue to drive lower toxic emissions with additional fuel economy and CO2 legislation likely Non-Confidential UMTRI 15 February 2012 Ricardo plc 2012 9. Future Trends in Vehicle Technology Regulation is driving new technology & innovation to higher efficiency Accelerating the rate of technology introduction to passenger cars Trend is now continuing into the commercial vehicle space in US.

8 Japan and Europe passenger car efficiency dominated by ICE Technologies in the short/med term There is no silver bullet - we will need a range of Technologies to meet targets A better understanding of life cycle emissions will enable more informed choices Electrification is a longer term trend but we need a breakthrough in batteries Both evolutionary and disruptive Technologies are likely to be successful Intelligent Electrification is a key approach to enable more radical ICE. technology Mechanical Hybrids could offer substantial cost reductions over electric systems Non-Confidential UMTRI 15 February 2012 Ricardo plc 2012 10. Technology Roadmap - Overview There are three interlinked phases of change required to current light duty Powertrain technology and strategy SHORT TERM: ~2015 MEDIUM TERM: ~2025 LONG TERM: ~2050.

9 Boosting & downsizing High Efficiency Plug-in/Hybrid electric Turbocharging Advanced Combustion: systems dominate Supercharging Lean Stratified SI Very high specific Low speed torque Low temperature power ICE's enhancements combustion Range of application Stop/Start & low cost Combined turbo/ specific low carbon fuels Micro Hybrid technology supercharging systems Exhaust & Coolant Friction reduction Advanced low carbon energy recovery Advanced thermal fuel formulations Advanced systems PHEV's in premium & thermodynamic Cycles Niche Hybrid, PHEV's performance products Split Cycle? and Electric Vehicles EV's for city vehicles Heat Pumps? Source: Ricardo Technology Roadmaps, Ricardo Analysis Non-Confidential UMTRI 15 February 2012 Ricardo plc 2012 11.

10 Mass market roadmap developed by Ricardo shows that range of Technologies will be required to meet regulatory targets US GHG and CAFE (mpg) EU Fleet Average 130 95. 95 TBD. CO2 Targets (g/km) Road Transport Energy Demonstrators Demonstrators fuel FuelCell Vehicle Cell Vehicle Vectors 2050. Demonstrators fuel Cell Vehicle fuel Cell & H2 Supply/Storage Ricardo projection H2 Infrastructure Breakthrough Hydrogen Niche EVs Mass Market EV Technology NG/Biogas Charging Infrastructure Energy Storage Breakthrough Electricity Demonstrators Demonstrators Demonstrators Plug-In Hybrid Energy Storage Breakthrough Full Hybrid Micro/Mild Hybrid IC Engine &Transmission innovations (gasoline/diesel/renewables).