Briefing Ukraine and the Minsk II ... - European Parliament

1 BriefingJanuary 2016 EPRS | European Parliamentary Research ServiceAuthor:Naja BentzenMembers' Research Minsk IIagreementOn afrozenpathto peace?SUMMARYW hile Kyivtookan importantstep towards Europe with the entry into force of theDeep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area on 1 January2016, Ukraine 'spath to peacewith neighbouring Russiaremains of the fragileMinsk IIceasefire agreement negotiated by theleaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia in February 2015 has been extendedinto issues will continue to pose challenges to the fulfilment of Minsk IIin death toll hasnowsurpassed 9000, and Russia continues to supply therebels with ammunition, weaponry and fighters. In addition,Ukrainian pilot NadiyaSavchenkois still imprisoned in Russia over murdercharges. At the same time, thepractical consequences of the conflict are tangible in the rebel-held areas, where ahumanitarian crisis is the self-proclaimed republics in Donetsk and Luhanskhadagreed to postponelocal elections until February 2016 a move thatwaswelcomed by Kyiv, Moscow andBrussels thenextdevelopmentshinge on a political ,someanalysts hope thatrecent Russian high-level appointmentscouldgive new impetus briefingbrings up to datethat of 16 July2015,' Ukraine : Follow-up of Minsk II Afragile ceasefire'.

2 In this Briefing : Minsk II a ceasefire in limbo Prisoners: Nadiya Savchenko casecontinuesin 2016 EUsupport forconstitutional reform Local elections in rebel-held regionsplanned in February 2016 Do recent Russian appointments signifyreadiness to negotiate Donbas? The role of the European Parliament Timeline of the crisisEPRSU kraine and the Minsk IIagreementOna frozenpathto peace?Members' Research ServicePage2of8 Minsk II a ceasefire in limboThe leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine in aconference callon30 December2015agreed to extend the implementation of the Minsk II peaceagreementbeyond the 31 December 2015 astatementissued bythe French presidential palace, theleaders of the 'Normandy Four' reaffirmedtheircommitment to thetrucein eastern Ukraineandthe 'concerted withdrawal of heavyweaponswithout delay'.

3 Thefour countries'Foreign Ministersare expected to assessprogress : How the current crisis startedAt the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on 28-29 November 2013, Ukraine 's thenPresident Viktor Yanukovich decided against signing the Association Agreement (AA)with the EU, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA).Instead, President Yanukovichreceiveda US$15 billion loan and a beneficial gas dealfrom decision triggeredmajor pro- European popular protests in February 2014, theUkrainian Parliament , the Verkhovna Rada,voted to impeachPresident Yanukovich, whothenfled perceived the power shift as a coup d' tat and responded by annexing theCrimean peninsula in March 2014inviolationof internationallaw,andbylaunching anundeclared 'hybrid war' involvingstrong economic pressure and targeteddisinformationmeasures against , the US anda number ofothercountries imposed sanctions against Russia, whichretaliated 5 September 2014,a peace plan for eastern Ukraine theMinsk Protocol violations, a follow-up agreement was negotiated andsigned on 19 September 2014.

4 However, fightingcontinued andescalated in January2015. On 12 February 2015 leaders from France, Germany, Ukraine and Russiaagreedto a new ceasefire,the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the MinskAgreements (the ' Minsk II'agreement), which entered into force on 15 IIagreement,summarised1. Immediate, full bilateral ceasefire as of 15 February 00 of all heavy weapons by both sides, to be completed within 14 monitoring regime for the ceasefire and withdrawalof heavy weapons by the of dialogueonmodalities of local electionsin accordance with Ukrainian and amnesty of figures involved in the of all hostages and other illegally detained people, based on the 'allfor all' deliveryof humanitarian aid tothose in need,based onan international of full social and economic links with affected Ukrainian control overitsborderwith Russiathroughout the conflict of all foreign armed groups, weapons and mercenaries from Ukrainian reform in Ukrainewith decentralisation as a key element.

5 A new constitutionby the end of elections in Donetsk andLuhansk regions tobe heldaccording toOSCE ofthe work of the Trilateral Contact ofMeasuresfor the Implementation of the Minsk Agreementswas published by the Elys and the Minsk IIagreementOna frozenpathto peace?Members' Research ServicePage3of8 Minsk II:Renewedceasefireviolationsunderlinech roniclack ofprogressPoint 1 in the Minsk II agreement full bilateral ceasefire as of 15 February201500:00 was breached almost immediately, asseparatists celebrated their victory in thestrategic transport hub of Debaltseveon 18 Februaryfollowing heavy thetruce did reduce the number of casualties and hotspots, there have been recurrentwavesof increased violence. Amidsurgingfighting in June-August 2015, a new'ceasefire within the ceasefire' wasagreedon 26 August 2015.

6 Conditionsimprovedtemporarily, butworsenedagain in 1 Ukraine and the conflict areaSource:Giulio Sabbati, see updated maps by Ukraine 's National Security continued violations, the conflict is unlikely to considerably escalateAlthough Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels on 22 December 2015agreed on a new'ceasefirewithin the ceasefire'overChristmas and New Year, violations by both sides inlate December sparkedconcernthat the situation could unravel. On 13 January, theTrilateral Contact Group (TCG), which is responsible for negotiations to settle theconflict,agreedon yet another ceasefire. Again, this wasviolatedin the following therepeatedsetbacks, global risk consultancy company 'Control Risks'deemsthat the conflict is 'unlikely to considerably escalate'.1 The death toll since the conflict broke out in April 2014 had reached morethan9000inNovember 2015,according to the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission inUkraine (UNOHCHR).

7 However, the total number of casualties remains President Vladimir Putin who hasdeniedthe presence of Russian troops ineastern Ukraine , butconcededin December 2015 that there were 'people' therehandling 'certain' military tasks declaredin May 2015 that deaths of Russian soldiersduring special operations in peacetime shall be classified as a state and the Minsk IIagreementOna frozenpathto peace?Members' Research ServicePage4of8 Russia continues to supply the rebels with ammunition, weaponry and fightersAccording to aDecember2015reportby theOffice of the High Commissioner forHuman Rights (OHCHR)ammunition,weaponryand fighters were still pouring in fromthe Russian Federation to therebel-held areas of eastern Supreme AlliedCommander Philip Breedlovewarnedon 2 December 2015 that 'Russia still supports itsproxies ineastern Ukraine '.

8 He added that'multiple convoys' into Donbas had been'labelled as humanitarian support. We all know that is not correct,' he concluded that 'Russia is completely in control of what is happening on theline of contact and they will use that in the future'. Ukraine receives modified equipment andfinancial military aid from the United StatesIn November 2015, the USdeliveredtwo new anti-artillery radar systems to Ukraine ,worth US$10 million each. The systems had beenmodifiedto ensure that Ukrainianforces do not 'escalate the current conflict by using the new systems to counter Russian territory', US officials said. The US NationalDefenseAuthorization Act forthe Fiscal Year 2015foreseesUS$300 million for Ukraine 's Russian 'attempt' to aggravate the conflictto the UN Security CouncilOn 18 January2016, Ukraine whichassumeditsseatas a non-permanent member ofthe UN Security Councilon 1 January informedthe chair of the UN Security Councilof'another attempt' by Russia and its proxies to aggravate the security situation inDonbas.

9 According toapressstatementissued by Ukraine 's Ministry of Foreign Affairs,recent armed provocations along the contact line 'derail all efforts undertaken byUkraine and international community aimed at restoring peace and stability'. In thestatement, Ukraineurgesinternational partners'not to fall for[Russia's]deceptivemanoeuvres'that demonstrate'mismatches between its rhetoric and real actions'.EUsanctions against RussiaThe EU views the 'full implementation of the Minsk agreements' as the foundation for a solutionto the conflict. Since spring 2014, the EU has been increasing its restrictive measures inresponseto the 'illegal annexation of Crimea and deliberate destabilisation of Ukraine '.On 14 September 2014, the Councilextendedthe EU's sanctions over Russian action againstUkraine's territorial integrity until 15 March 2016.

10 149 persons and 37 entities are subject toasset freeze and travel bans under these recently, EU Member States on 18 Decemberdecidedtoextend economic sanctionsagainst Russia for six more months, despite visibledivisionsbetween individual Member :Nadiya Savchenkocase continuesin 2016 Point 6 in the Minsk II agreement stipulates the 'release and exchange of all hostagesand unlawfully detained persons, based on the principle "all for all"'.3 Following theFebruary2015talks, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenkoannounced that theUkrainian military pilot Nadiya Savchenko held in Moscow on charges of involvementin the death of two Russian journalists in easternUkraine in 2014 would be releasedas part oftheagreed prisoner , however, a Moscow courtrefusedto release Savchenko. She was elected to Ukraine 's parliamentin absentiain2014and was awarded a 'Hero of Ukraine 'awardby PoroshenkoinMarch and the Minsk IIagreementOna frozenpathto peace?