BUSINESS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - colorado.edu

1 FIFTY-SEVENTH ANNUALCOLORADOOUTLOOK2022 BUSINESS ECONOMICA dditional copies may be ordered from: BUSINESS Research Division University of colorado Boulder 420 UCB Boulder, CO 80309-0420 2021 by the BUSINESS Research Division Leeds School of BUSINESS University of colorado Boulder Boulder, CO 80309-0420 The University of colorado Boulder is an equal opportunity/nondiscrimination in this book is correct at the time of printing but may be subject to contained within the accompanying tables is in the public domain and, with appropriate credit, may be reproduced without permission. Please reference, BUSINESS Research Division, Leeds School of BUSINESS , University of colorado Boulder. Printed on recycled School of BUSINESS Corporate PartnersAngelcapitalPrincipalLeadProgram Leeds School of BUSINESS .. 2 Introduction .. 3 colorado Then and Now .. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK .. 6 colorado ECONOMIC , Employment, and Population OUTLOOK .

2 12 Agriculture .. 22 Natural Resources and Mining .. 27 Construction .. 37 Manufacturing .. 42 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities .. 50 56 Financial Activities .. 65 Professional and BUSINESS Services .. 86 Education and Health Services .. 96 Leisure and Hospitality .. 103 Other Services .. 120 Government .. 124 International Trade ..134 Summary ..144 Around the Region ..146 Around the State Boulder County ..148 Kit Carson County ..150 Mesa County ..151 Northern colorado ..154 Pueblo County ..155 Southern colorado ..157 Southwest colorado ..159 Steering Committee Members ..163 Estimating Groups ..164 Table of colorado BUSINESS ECONOMIC Outlook2 Leeds School of BusinessDear Colleagues in BUSINESS ,I m delighted to welcome you to the 57th annual colorado BUSINESS ECONOMIC Out-look, and to what I hope is a return to an almost-normal time at your BUSINESS , in our state and in the pandemic s impact created ripple effects that are still causing ECONOMIC disruption, from tangled supply chains to lackluster labor markets, but I am optimistic about what the future holds, and grateful that the ECONOMIC uncer-tainty created by COVID-19 difficult as it was is easing are signs of recovery all over our campus, which came to life this fall when our students, faculty and staff returned to Boulder en masse.

3 That s meant an even better educational experience for our students we learned from our COVID experiences about how to use technology in new and innovative ways but also a more col-laborative environment for our faculty researchers, whose insights we count on in driving BUSINESS forward through this time of uncertainty. During the pandemic, our faculty have explored issues such as the future of work, supply chain reconfigurations, entrepreneurship rates, financial markets behavior, globalization, and consumer behavior and technology. They have also found creative ways to share these insights, such as virtual events, podcasts and the value of a Leeds education has never been greater. In News & World Report s 2022 ranking of the Best Undergraduate BUSINESS Schools, Leeds was included in the top 20 public schools. We also started new gradu-ate programs, including our executive and hybrid MBA degrees for working professionals. Both have been met with enthusiasm by those seeking new skills for a changing environment, as well as by employers who see these programs as a valuable way to develop and retain their highest potential success is so closely tied to the success of our BUSINESS community.

4 We are fortunate to be part of a thriving busi-ness community full of true partners: From those who recruit our students or speak in our classrooms, to those who work with us on research or co-develop specialized programs, your success is our success. We also greatly value your engagement with our initiatives to attract more interest from women and students from diverse backgrounds in a busi-ness education, and to bring together the worlds of BUSINESS and technology through our partnership with our College of Engineering and Applied Science. With you, we are inspiring and educating the leaders of hope you find this year s forecast helpful as you navigate what the future holds. Thank you for your support of Leeds, our faculty, our research and, most importantly, our ,Sharon Matusik, Dean, Leeds School of BUSINESS #2075%#12025 Class of#1 BUSINESS Schoolin colorado #27 in Entrepreneurship Full-Time MBA ProgramBloomberg Businessweek(2021-22)#20 Best Public Undergraduate BUSINESS News & World Report (2022)#45 in the world Leeds faculty per-capita research rankingOur freshman ACT women students of color75% 4-year graduation rate (undergraduate)Welcomed the first cohort to the new Executive MBA program (2021)11 MBA and specialized MS programs for working professionalsTop 50 MBA & MS #272022 colorado BUSINESS ECONOMIC Outlook3 The BUSINESS Research Division (BRD) in the Leeds School of BUSINESS is proud to present the 57th annual colorado BUSINESS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK .

5 This 2022 consensus forecast is a product of partnerships with individuals spanning numerous universities, businesses, nonprofits, and government entities. These individuals generously gift their time, sharing their unique expertise and perspec-tives about people, industry, and policy relating to the state of colorado . This forecast analyzes changes that have occurred in all ECONOMIC sectors during the past year and looks at the opportunities and challenges that will shape population, employment, and the overall economy in the coming year. The information in this book is initially presented at the 57th annual colorado BUSINESS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Forum in Denver, followed by approximately 50 forecast speeches that are held throughout the state during the year, ranging from presentations to industry associations and nonprofit organizations to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. MethodologyWe are fortunate to have more than 140 individuals from the BUSINESS , education, and government communities who serve on 13-sector estimating groups.

6 These groups con-vene at a kickoff meeting in September where members discuss trends and issues that are likely to affect ECONOMIC growth during the upcoming year. During the second half of September and into October, the committees apply this information to their industry. The BRD simultaneously generates an econometric forecast by industry, which is given to each industry committee. From this series of meetings, the sector write-ups and forecasts are prepared and submitted to the BRD in early November, when they are edited and published in this book. The following July, the Steering Committee, which is made up of the sector chairs, meets to review their forecasts and identify factors that will positively or negatively drive change in their industry s ECONOMIC performance during the second half of the year. These updates are published in the summer issue of our quarterly newslet-ter, the colorado BUSINESS Review. Related ECONOMIC Research The BRD conducts customized BUSINESS and ECONOMIC research that expands the knowledge base of decision makers throughout the state and region.

7 The annual Colo-rado BUSINESS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK provides the foundation for all research the BRD conducts within the state. Among the other BRD research tools available to businesses and organizations is the Leeds BUSINESS Confidence Index, a forward-looking index that gauges colorado BUSINESS leaders opinions about national and state ECONOMIC trends and how their industry will perform in the coming quarter, and the colorado BUSINESS Review, which explores current topics important to the state s economy. Visit for more information about BRD offerings. Acknowledgments We are humbled and thankful to have dedicated partners in producing this forecast. A complete list of committee members appears at the back of this book. Their efforts are very much appreciated. We also thank the staff of the colorado department of Local Affairs and the colorado department of Labor and Employment who supply us with much of the employment and population data used in the forecast.

8 Finally, I would like to thank the many Leeds School of BUSINESS and CU Boulder personnel who have worked hard at preparing, presenting, and promoting this project. My sincerest thanks go to Brian Lewandowski, executive director; Jacob Dubbert, research economist; Shannon Furniss, project editor; Cindy DiPersio, guest editor; Kristin Weber, graphic designer; Denise Munn, senior print production manager; and Lucas Ericson, Trevor Hall, Max Olson, Jessie Ryce, and Vianne Schein, student research assistants, for their help in assembling and pre-senting the 2022 colorado BUSINESS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Forum. The assistance provided by Leeds School staff member Laurel Harman, assistant director of Advance-ment Event Experiences; and Trisha McKean, assistant dean of advancement, is greatly appreciated. The Leeds Marketing and Communications team executive direc-tor Amber Hickory and team members Justin Forbis, Anneli Gray, Joe Arney, Liz Draper, Honey Hargrave, Brad Haynes, Erik Jeffries, and Jennifer Schuman contributed marketing and promotion assistance.

9 I also appreciate the help provided by Nicole Mueksch with CU Boulder Strate-gic Media Relations. colorado ECONOMIC Forecast for 2022 The sections that follow provide a summary of 2021, a forecast for 2022, and industry-specific data analysis and insight into the key factors influencing each sector. We believe this information will prove useful in your BUSINESS and policy decision-making process. Richard L. Wobbekind, Associate Dean BUSINESS and Government Relations Faculty Director, BUSINESS Research Division Leeds School of BUSINESS colorado BUSINESS ECONOMIC Outlook4 colorado Then and NowThe timeline to the right provides a glimpse into the past, showing the annual change in state employment. Changes in employment have been accompanied by numer-ous social, ECONOMIC , educational, and political changes. colorado events are listed above the line; national events are noted below. Over the past five decades, colorado has experienced numerous ECONOMIC booms and busts, dynamically chang-ing industries and (mostly) unrelenting population growth.

10 The timeline puts the COVID-19 recession and rebound into perspective, comparing the 2021 recovery to those fol-lowing prior ECONOMIC recessions through which colorado has 1970, just over 1 million individuals were employed in colorado , and the average annual earnings were under $6,700. Since then, wage and salary employment in the state peaked at over million prior to the COVID-19 pan-demic, not including proprietor employment, and average annual pay for covered wage and salary earners grew to $61,820. In 2020, wage and salary employment fell to just below million, and average annual pay grew to $66, industries accounted for 24% of jobs and made up of the colorado GDP in 1970. By 2020, those sectors accounted for of total jobs and of the state s GDP. While proprietor employment repre-sented less than 17% of total employment in 1970, it now represents The share of women in the state s labor force has increased to , nearly a 10-percentage point increase from 1970.