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Can the Term Spread Predict Output Growth and Recessions ...
David C. Wheelock is a vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Mark E. Wohar is a professor of economics at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.
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Understanding the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The ...
files.stlouisfed.orgUnderstanding the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The Expectations Theory nil S. HE INTERES’r RATES on loans and securities ... terms—affect the levels of long-term interest rates. Economic theory suggests that monetary policy may have a direct effect on short-term interest rates, but little, if …
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files.stlouisfed.orgGross domestic product (GDP) is the total market value, expressed in ... of GDP and is a large and growing component of our nation’s economy. It’s also an important, but controversial, political issue. ... to the personal consumption expenditures (C) category. GDP would also increase by $30,000. The same would
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