Challenges of Economic Diversification for …

1 Challenges of Economic Diversification for Sustainable Development Dr Opha Pauline Dube Department of Environmental Science, University of Botswana History shows that environmental resources have shaped economy, culture and human organization: In Botswana: The eastern wetter part with more fertile soil . arable agriculture, scattered settlements dominated While in the drier parts, pastoral systems, nucleated settlements and developed kingdom occurred Technological developments and pursuit for Economic growth have resulted in great inter-linkages between human activity and biophysical environment globally: Giving rise to Socio- ecological Systems multi- scale resource use around which humans have organised themselves in a particular social structure, within an ecological system Greater inter-linkages between human and natural systems is one feature of the anthropocene period and it calls for a holistic approach to development The Challenge for Botswana.

2 Building resilient socio- ecological systems to achieve sustainable development Resilience of Socio- ecological systems capacity to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change but retaining essentially the same function, structure, identity etc. Resilience of socio- ecological systems can be influenced through adaptability management. Where ecological , Economic , or social structures of a socio- ecological system cannot bounce back to original equilibrium- Transformability capacity to create a fundamentally new system may be required (Walker et al. 2004). The background statement of this conference: As one of the world's poorest countries at independence .. Poor in the eyes of who? By what and whose measure? Botswana was never a poor country at Any time in its history. The country has always had vast resources: Mineral wealth now being explored Rangelands supporting domestic and wildlife resources Indigenous knowledge providing appropriate organizational structures to adapt to the local environment, exploit and share and manage natural resources Perceptions that Botswana was once the world's poorest.

3 Serve to engrave low self-esteem eroding confidence we need to fearlessly address Diversification of Botswana's economy for sustainable development. Value of Africa's natural capital: Commenting on Ghana's failed hopes of oil riches Graham Brown-Martin (08 August 2014) noted that If the African continent was to unify around a single currency - say the "Afro" the western economy would collapse given that the value of such a currency, based upon the continents reserves of mineral deposits, would massively reduce the value of the US dollar.. This obviously is not achievable under a regionally and globally distorted and manipulated capitalist system Botswana: 48 years of stable multi-party democracy (elections every 5 years & 2 terms for presidency). with a population of roughly 2m A middle income country - GDP per capita (PPP) stood at US$ 13, 604 by 2009. Evidence of government response to its citizens includes: Education - literacy rate over 90%.

4 Health- about 85% accessed health facility within the WHO. 15 km walking distance by end of the 1990s. Response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic -free provision of Anti- viral medication & prevention of mother to child infection Investment in road transport system & subsidized water, electricity & postal services A self-help housing programme ; Remote area dweller programme for the marginalized; youth programmes etc. Poverty eradication etc. Botswana's success lie largely with translating the country's non-renewable diamond mineral resources to more diverse and usable form of wealth ( from various internet sources). Questions for this conference are: How far can this diamond translated wealth provide a foundation for the future? How resilient is this wealth in the face of local and external pressures How robust was our planning, choice of investment areas, quality of what was invested on? Can the newly created wealth translate/create /spin and sustain other new wealth for us in future ?

5 This comes to: How, as a society we have developed and organized ourselves whether we did so in ways that render us vulnerable or resilient to current and future risks? There are numerous such risk but I give examples from the environment point of view Consider Resilience of our mineral generated wealth to hazards such as: Hydro-meteorological hazards Climate variability and climate change . effects on water supply, food production etc. Health hazards malaria under climate change and The Ebola outbreak in West Africa - a result of global connectivity in the midst of poor governance and poverty is a potential threat to Botswana too From goolge sources Geophysical hazards earthquakes: Are frequent tremors experienced in the past years warning signs for something worse to come? . Note: There are no natural disasters All disasters are human made deceased- Dr Sheik Umar Khan The conference intends to address the serious issue of Economic Diversification & a sustainable development model from an Economic and political point of view ?

6 What does this mean? ? Interdependent and mutually reinforcing pillars of sustainable development: Economic , Social, and Environmental growth Within this- Environment UN 2005 World Summit is our production base The degradation of the production base of the economy environmental resources - arises mostly from too much focus on Economic growth, choosing to disregard value and irreversibility of damage on ecosystems Traditional Economic production indicators : Gross domestic product (GDP) and Human Development Index (HDI) - fail to reflect on natural resources whether national policies are sustainable [Hence the statement that Botswana was once a poor country for ]. GDP does not recognize the cost of inequality on the environment and together with HDI say little on quality of our lives. The question: How responsible is that development - is not an issue for HDI such that USA, Canada & Australia record high HDI even though this is at the cost of the planet and the future of humanity.

7 Level of development: using the Human Development Index and ecological Footprint of Nations (2002 data): The lower right quadrant is where the minimum requirements for sustainability occurs From Africa's ecological Footprint Fact Book No country meets the sustainability requirements The challenge for Botswana as is so with the global community is What development pathway is best to address the three pillars of sustainable development ? And What indicators can be used to assess sustainable development? New approaches to GDP suggest that it should: Measure genuine Economic welfare quality of life and Indicate the sustainability of that welfare over time Cattle keeping industry: Mismanagement result in overstocking leading to land degradation with negative effects on water resources and land productivity and increased susceptibility flooding then the activity is un-sustainable Other suggest that HDI be converted to: a Human Sustainable Development Index (HSDI) (Togtokh, 2011) to include a nation's per capita carbon emissions UNU-IHDP and UNEP: Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI) - another option that Botswana can use to map its Diversification for sustainable development.

8 IWI Considers a country's capital assets manufactured, human and natural capital IWI could help provide guidance on forms of capital investment required to ensure sustainable development. When tested on 20 countries -25% of those with a positive trend using GDP per capita and HDI fell on the negative under IWI per capita due to decline in natural capital. Botswana is working on valuation of its natural capital . implementation is yet to be witnessed Negative IWI per capita was linked to depletion of non-renewable natural capital oil and minerals as was for SA, Nigeria, Russia This case will apply for Botswana as mineral resources diamonds are depleted But reduction in natural capital can be offset by investments in other areas manufactured and human capital, infrastructure as Botswana has been doing But considering the vulnerability of such capital noted above- it is best to also invest in renewable capital the low carbon - green economy as a way to Diversification for sustainable development Another approach towards Diversification for sustainable development Using a framework that is based on strives to meet Sustainable development Goals that incorporate the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

9 Need to set Sustainable development Goals that incorporate MDGs: six have been suggested (David Griggs, 2013). Thriving lives and livelihoods- MDGs on poverty, health and urban environments Sustainable food security through sustainable systems of production, distribution and consumption: MDG hunger target & to include limit nitrogen and phosphorus use in agriculture Sustainable water security - access to clean water and basic sanitation, and ensure efficient allocation through integrated water-resource management: MDG on health VO L 4 9 5 | N AT U R E. Six MGDs proposed so far . Universal clean energy- universal, affordable access to clean energy: MDG targets on education, gender equity and health. Healthy and productive ecosystems- Sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services through better management, valuation, measurement, conservation and restoration: MDG environmental targets Governance for sustainable societies - Transform governance and institutions at all levels to address the other five sustainable development goals: MDG.

10 On partnerships and incorporate environmental and social targets into global trade, investment and finance. Thank you