Climate Change Assessment Ghana 23Aug - encapafrica.org

1 June 2011 This report was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). It was prepared by the USDA forest Service, International Programs. Ghana Climate Change VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION Assessment COVER PHOTOS: Courtesy of USFS, IP Ghana Climate Change VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION Assessment Prepared by John A. Stanturf, Melvin L. Warren, Jr., Susan Charnley, Sophia C. Polasky, Scott L. Goodrick, Frederick Armah, and Yaw Atuahene Nyako JUNE 2011 DISCLAIMER The author s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS IX EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Climate Overview.

2 1 Climate Variability and Change .. 2 Uncertainty of Climate Projections .. 3 Climate Policy Framework .. 3 Agriculture and Livelihoods .. 5 Ecological Vulnerability .. 7 Social Vulnerability .. 8 Adaptation .. 9 Energy 10 Northern Savanna Case Study .. 11 Mainstreaming Climate Change .. 12 New Interventions for USAID Programming .. 15 1. INTRODUCTION 17 2. APPROACH 18 3. Ghana S Climate AND PROJECTED CHANGES 20 General Climate .. 20 Climate Trends and Modeled Climate Change : Sources.

3 24 Recent Climate Trends .. 26 Climate Scenarios .. 27 4. Climate Change POLICY FRAMEWORK 36 Climate Change Activities in Ghana .. 36 REDD+ Policy Framework .. 37 Land Tenure in Ghana .. 45 5. PHYSIOGRAPHY, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, AND LIVELIHOODS 52 Physiographic Zones .. 52 Ecological Zones .. 53 Agriculture .. 58 Population and Economy .. 83 Crop production .. 85 Livestock rearing .. 85 Fisheries .. 86 Urban Verses Rural Livelihoods .. 87 Rural Livelihoods on the Coast .. 88 Rural Livelihoods in the forest .. 88 Rural Livelihoods in the Savanna .. 89 6. VULNERABILITY TO Climate Change 91 Natural Systems Vulnerability.

4 91 7. SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO Climate Change IN Ghana 118 Defining and Assessing Social Vulnerability to Climate Change .. 118 Methods .. 119 Results and Discussion .. 124 Conclusions .. 129 Reference and Indicator Maps .. 130 8. ADAPTING TO Climate Change IN Ghana : CASE STUDIES FROM THE COASTAL AND NORTHERN SAVANNA REGIONS 144 Introduction .. 144 Case Study: Climate Change Adaptation in Ghana s Coastal Zone .. 147 Case Study: Climate Change Adaptation in Ghana s Northern Savanna Regions .. 151 9. Climate Change MITIGATION IN Ghana OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES 160 Clean Development Mechanism Projects.

5 160 Natural Gas and Offshore Oil Development .. 161 10. ENERGY SECTOR 164 Social impacts of oil and gas development .. 164 Climate Change Impacts On the Energy Sector .. 165 Climate Change and Hydropower .. 166 11. OPTIONS FOR USAID PROGRAMMING 172 Mainstreaming Climate Change .. 172 New interventions for USAID programming .. 175 12. LITERATURE CITED 184 APPENDIX 1. TEAM ITINERARY AND CONTACTS 200 APPENDIX 2. TEAM MEMBERS 207 APPENDIX 3.

6 MATRIX OF Climate Change ACTIVITIES IN Ghana 208 APPENDIX 4. TABLE OF POTENTIAL COLLABORATORS AND THEIR FOCUS AREAS 216 APPENDIX 5. SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES (MID-RANGE VALUES) FOR THE VARIOUS ECO-CLIMATIC ZONES IN Ghana 229 APPENDIX 6. SCENARIOS OF CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNT (MID-RANGE VALUES) FOR THE VARIOUS ECO-CLIMATIC ZONES IN Ghana 232 APPENDIX 7. SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES (UPPER BOUND VALUES) FOR THE VARIOUS ECO-CLIMATIC ZONES OF THE COUNTRY 236 APPENDIX 8.

7 SCENARIOS OF CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (UPPER BOUND VALUES) FOR THE VARIOUS ECO-CLIMATIC ZONE IN Ghana 239 APPENDIX 9. SCENARIOS OF MEAN SEA SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE OFF-SHORE WATERS OF Ghana 243 APPENDIX 10. SCENARIOS OF SEA LEVEL Change WITH RESPECT TO 1990 MEAN (CM) 244 Ghana Climate Change VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION Assessment v ACRONYMS CAADP Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme CBO community-based organizations CC Climate Change CDCS Country Development Cooperation Strategy CEA Country Environmental Analysis CEPF Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund CFM Collaborative forest Management CI Conservation International CIDA Canadian International Development Agency CITES Convention on International Trade of Endangered Species CPUE Catch Per Unit of Effort CRC

8 Coastal Resources Center CREMA Community Resource Management Area CRMU Collaborative Resource Management Unit CSIR Council for Scientific and Industrial Research CSO Civil Society Organization CSP Country Strategic Plan DA District Assembly DSD dry semi-deciduous SARI Savanna Agricultural Research Institute EPA Environmental Protection Agency ETOA Environmental Threats and Opportunities Assessment EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization, UN FAA Foreign Assistance Act FASDEP Food and Ag. Sector Development Policy FC forestry Commission FDMP forestry Development Master Plan vi Ghana Climate Change VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION Assessment FR forest Reserves FSD forestry Services Division FtF Feed the Future (USAID multi-year strategy)

9 FY fiscal year GCMs Global Circulation Models GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GFTN Global forest Trade Network GoG Government of Ghana GPRS Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy GSBA Globally Significant Biodiversity Areas HDI Human Development Index GWS Ghana Wildlife Society IBA Important Bird Areas IEE Initial Environmental Examination IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPM Integrated Pest Management ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature JICA Japan international development agency LME Large Marine Ecosystem ME moist evergreen METASIP Medium Term Ag.

10 Sector Investment Plan MEST Ministry of Env., Science and Technology MEO Mission Environmental Officer MLNR Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources MOFA Ministry of Food and Agriculture MSD moist semi-deciduous NAP National Action Programme NEPAD New Partnership for Africa's Development NDPC National Development Planning Commission Ghana Climate Change VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION Assessment vii NGO Non-Governmental Organization NCRC Nature Conservation Research Centre NREG Natural Resources and Environmental Governance program NRM natural resources management NTFP non-timber forest products PA protected area PAMSCP Protected Areas