Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for ...

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4 ANL/ESD-21/4 Comprehensive Total cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles with different Size Classes and Powertrains by Andrew Burnham1, David Gohlke1, Luke Rush1, Thomas Stephens1, Yan Zhou1, Mark A. Delucchi2, Alicia Birky3, Chad Hunter3, Zhenhong Lin4, Shiqi Ou4, Fei Xie4, Camron Proctor5, Steven Wiryadinata5, Nawei Liu6, and Madhur Boloor7 1 Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory 2 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 3 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 4 Oak Ridge National Laboratory 5 Sandia National Laboratories 6 University of Tennessee 7 Department of Energy, vehicle Technologies Office April 2021 Erratum to accompany Comprehensive Total cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles with different Size Classes and Powertrains (Argonne National Laboratory report ANL/ESD-21/4)

5 July 2021 After initial publication of this report, the authors were made aware of some minor typographical errors and omissions. As these mistakes can potentially confuse the results, they have been corrected in the present version. In the executive summary on page xxiii, HEV (hybrid electric vehicle ) was once written as BEV (battery electric vehicle ), contrary to the findings shown in the accompanying figure. Tables and previously stated the incorrect all-electric ranges for the battery electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle for the class 8 day cab tractor and class 4 delivery truck, respectively. These ranges have been corrected. Additionally, two sentences were added to Appendix B on page 143 to explicitly state the correctly modeled all-electric range for all medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.

6 Several stakeholders have been added explicitly to the acknowledgments section. iii CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .. xii LIST OF ACRONYMS .. xiii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .. xvii 1. INTRODUCTION .. 1 2. TCO CALCULATION METHODOLOGY AND BACKGROUND .. 6 Conceptual Framework for vehicle Costs .. 6 Review of TCO Literature .. 8 Highlights from Specific Studies .. 10 Quantification of TCO .. 14 Financial Analysis .. 19 Analysis Timeframe and Survivability .. 23 vehicle Travel and Mileage .. 24 3. cost ELEMENT DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS .. 28 Data Source Summary .. 28 vehicle .. 29 vehicle Retail Prices .. 29 vehicle Fuel Economy .. 35 Validation of Retail Price and Fuel Economy.

7 43 vehicle Financing .. 46 vehicle cost / Depreciation .. 47 Fuel Costs and Infrastructure .. 61 Insurance cost .. 63 Passenger Light-Duty Insurance .. 63 Commercial Heavy-Duty and Light-Duty Insurance .. 70 Maintenance and Repair Costs .. 71 Annual M&R Costs, LDV .. 72 Per-Mile M&R Costs, LDV .. 76 Maintenance Costs by Service Schedule, LDV .. 81 Repair Costs, LDV .. 86 Maintenance and Repair Costs, MHDV .. 90 Taxes and Fees .. 92 Taxes and Fees, LDV .. 93 Taxes and Fees, MHDV .. 95 Costs and Considerations Specific to Commercial Vehicles .. 95 Summary of Qualitative Workshop Findings .. 96 Commercial vehicle Priorities .. 99 Key cost Elements.

8 101 4. RESULTS .. 108 Base Case .. 108 Side 114 iv CONTENTS (CONT.) vehicle Technology Advancement .. 114 Current Vehicles .. 115 vehicle Ownership 116 Component Replacement .. 117 Taxi Cabs .. 118 Labor costs while Fueling .. 119 Sensitivity Analysis .. 120 5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS .. 132 APPENDIX A: COMPARISON OF PRIVATE AND SOCIETAL 135 APPENDIX B: TABULAR TCO AND LCOD DATA .. 143 APPENDIX C: ADDITIONAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSES .. 160 REFERENCES .. 172 FIGURES ES-1 Levelized cost of Ownership of a model year 2025, small ICE SUV, and a model year 2025, class 8 sleeper cab BEV .. xviii ES-2 Depreciation trends by powertrain and size class .. xx ES-3 Annual premium for Comprehensive and collision insurance by size class and by powertrain.

9 Xxi ES-4 Per-mile maintenance costs by powertrain .. xxii ES-5 LCOD across powertrains for light-duty SUV, MY2025 .. xxiv ES-6 TCO and LCOD across MHDV vocations, MY2025 .. xxv ES-7 TCO across vehicle lifetime for class 8 diesel truck and gasoline SUV .. xxvi ES-8 TCO for small SUV and class 8 day cab from MY2020 to MY2050 .. xxvii Left: Costs for driving medium SUV, data from AAA. Right: Costs for driving class 8 tractor trailer, data from ATRI.. 13 Discounted cash flow graphic, MY2025 small SUV example .. 16 Annual cost of Ownership graphic, MY2025 small SUV example .. 17 cost per mile as a function of vehicle age graphic, MY2025 small SUV example .. 18 cost of driving as a function of cumulative lifetime mileage, small SUV example.

10 18 Lifetime costs for operating a gasoline-powered MY2025 small SUV .. 19 v FIGURES (CONT.) Left: VMT schedules for LDV and medium-duty delivery vehicles. Right: VMT schedules for heavy-duty vehicles.. 25 cost modeling for Autonomie LDV for small SUV in MY2020 and 30 cost modeling for Autonomie MDV in MY2020 and MY2025 .. 31 cost modeling for Autonomie HDV in MY2020 and MY2025 .. 31 Fuel consumption rates for small SUV and pickup truck as modeled by Autonomie for MY2020 and MY2025 .. 37 Comparisons of weighted average fuel economies of luxury and non-luxury LDVs .. 39 Fuel consumption rates for class 4 delivery truck and class 8 day-cab tractor trailer truck as modeled by Autonomie for MY2020 and MY2025.