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Confronting the Principles of the Power Cycle Confronting ...

Confronting the Principles of the Power Cycle Changing Systems Stvucture, Expectations, and Way CHARLES F. DORAN Power Cycle theory discloses and elucidates the uniquely international- political perspective of statecraft. The Power Cycle , the generalized path of a state s relative Power change over long time periods, reflects at once the changing structure of the system and the state s rise and decline as a great Power . It encompasses each state and the system in a single dynamic of changing systemic share. The Principles of the Power Cycle explain what sets the cycles in motion and the peculiar nonlinearities of relative Power change.

334 Handbook of War Studies 111 Confronting the Principles of the Power Cycle 335 which are based on the conviction that the structure of the international system uniquely affects the opportunity, constraints, and behavior of

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Transcription of Confronting the Principles of the Power Cycle Confronting ...

1 Confronting the Principles of the Power Cycle Changing Systems Stvucture, Expectations, and Way CHARLES F. DORAN Power Cycle theory discloses and elucidates the uniquely international- political perspective of statecraft. The Power Cycle , the generalized path of a state s relative Power change over long time periods, reflects at once the changing structure of the system and the state s rise and decline as a great Power . It encompasses each state and the system in a single dynamic of changing systemic share. The Principles of the Power Cycle explain what sets the cycles in motion and the peculiar nonlinearities of relative Power change.

2 For the researcher Confronting long-standing puz- zles of concept and historical interpretation, the Power Cycle is a potent analytic device that serves to unify, simplify, clarify, and correct. To attain such an encompassing perspective, however, the analyst must first con- front the full complexities of structural dynamics and the greatest para- dox of Power itself. In the hour of its greatest achievement, the state is driven onto unexpected paths by the bounds of the system. The tides of history have suddenly and unexpectedly shifted against it.

3 Power Cycle analysis seeks both a clear understanding of such struc- tural shifts and insight into the mind-set of contemporaneous statesmen who must contend with A systemic construct, the Power Cycle traces a state s development as a major international-political actor regarding a variety of leadership roles. Both actualized and latent capa- bilities are necessary to create and sustain its long-term growth in Power and But this Power of statecraft is intrinsically relative and hence a conceptual sphere removed from the absolute output of interest in Confronting the Principles of the Power Cycle 333 economics.

4 A state s international-political behavior is conditioned by how its absolute capability (numerator) compares with the absolute capa- bility of the system (denominator) in the relative Power ratio-its current ratio and its projected A given state Power Cycle records, at each time point, the state s clearly defined past and the likely trajectory of its yet-to-be-determined future Power and role vis-a-vis that It reveals at each step how statesmen would perceive the state s past and future evolution as a major player in the system.

5 The Power Cycle is thus a state image in the sense of Kenneth Boulding (1956) and Herbert Kel- man (1965, 25), a conception encompassing specific memories and ex- pectations as well as perceptions of the present. With future projections of Power and role embedded in the Cycle , this uniquely international-political dynamic captures the international- political concerns of statecraft. It thereby also fosters a concept of gen- eral equilibrium to overcome the deficiencies of the balance of Power . To confront the Principles of the Power Cycle , the Principles driving systemic change, is to discover the expectations, and the unexpected nonlixearities, of relative Power change that so greatly impact state behavior.

6 Observe that Power Cycle analysis overcomes the limitations of so- called calculative and perceptual models that, according to Aaron Fried- berg (1988, 13-14), divide the assessment of Power . It fully integrates calculative and perceptual assessments in a single estimation process, seeking a sense of the trend over broad periods of history. A model in which Power is a stock of one or more commodities and adaptation to changes [is] continuous surely does not represent reality. Nor does a model focusing solely on crises or dramatic events as the most likely agents of attitude change.

7 Perceptions cannot rest on subjective judg- ment alone (Britain and Germany circa 1908 needed some idea how many Dreadnoughts the other had to develop a naval strategy). Con- versely, hard figures that never confront the paradoxes and complexity of perception (let alone the subjective will and perceptual ambiguity sur- rounding naval engagement) could scarcely be representative of the Power relations Confronting statesmen. Power Cycle analysis does not dichotomize agent and structure, agreeing with David Dessler (1989, 46647) that structure provides the material conditions that both enable and constrain state behavior, behavior that in turn reproduces and trans- forms that structure.

8 Models of bounded rationality and prospect theory likewise probe the interface of structure and decision making? Such a holistic model of Power is implicit in all structural theories, 332 334 Handbook of War Studies 111 335 Confronting the Principles of the Power Cycle which are based on the conviction that the structure of the international system uniquely affects the opportunity, constraints, and behavior of Observe as well that, notwithstanding its focus on the state Power Cycle dynamic, Power Cycle analysis is not a state-level theory.

9 On the one hand, the concept of the Power Cycle has no meaning outside the context of a system (both Power and role are necessarily systemic), and causation in the theory lies at the level of interaction among states. The direction of relative Power change on the Power Cycle reflects the state s competitive- ness in that system. On the other hand, a system cannot be fully under- stood outside the context of the Power Cycle dynamic. A particular inter- national system is a historically determined and structurally specific relationship among individual states.

10 John Ruggie (1986, 153) correctly criticized those who would talk of systems share, or calculate it, without explaining the underlying Principles that govern the patterning of inter- action. The Principles of the Power Cycle are the requisite generative Principles for changing systems structure. The first section of this chapter assesses the concepts and theoreti- cal arguments of Power Cycle theory. Aided by three figures, it seeks to clarify the subtleties and idiosyncrasies of systems dynamics that invite confusion and hinder debate.


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