Congressional Budget Office Revised August 9, 2021 Cost ...

1 Congressional Budget Office Revised August 9, 2021 Cost Estimate Senate Amendment 2137 to 3684, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, as Proposed on August 1, 2021 The Congressional Budget Office estimates that over the 2021-2031 period, enacting Senate Amendment 2137 to 3684 would decrease direct spending by $110 billion, increase revenues by $50 billion, and increase discretionary spending by $415 billion. On net, the legislation would add $256 billion to projected deficits over that period. The legislation would provide $ billion in contract authority (a form of mandatory Budget authority) for a variety of transportation programs over the 2022-2026 period. Under the rules governing baseline projections that are specified in the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985, this estimate incorporates an assumption that the contract authority of about $ billion that would be provided in 2026 (the final year of the authorization) would also be provided in each subsequent year.

2 CBO therefore estimates that an additional $ billion in contract authority would be available over the 2027-2031 period, for a total of $ billion over the 10-year period. Over the 2022-2031 period, that total would be $ billion more that the amount in CBO s July 2021 baseline. Spending from contract authority is controlled by obligation limitations specified in annual appropriation acts; therefore, the outlays for most surface transportation programs are considered discretionary and will be accounted for in a future appropriation bill that sets those limits. CBO estimates that outlays from obligation limitations equal to all of the available contract authority would total $ billion over the 2021-2031 period: $ billion for Federal Highway Administration programs, $ billion for Federal Transit Administration programs, $ billion for Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration programs, and $ billion for National Highway Traffic Safety Administration programs.

3 Some of those outlays would result from contract authority and obligation limitations already projected in CBO s 1. For more information on the split budgetary classification of surface transportation programs funded from the Highway Trust Fund, see Congressional Budget Office , The Highway Trust Fund and the Treatment of Surface Transportation Programs in the Federal Budget (June 2014), 1 CBO Cost Estimate Senate Amendment to 3684, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, as Proposed on August 1, 2021 Senate Amendment 2137 to 3684 would impose intergovernmental and private-sector mandates as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA). CBO estimates that the aggregate cost of the intergovernmental mandates would fall below the annual threshold in UMRA ($85 million in 2021, adjusted annually for inflation) and that the aggregate cost of the private-sector mandates would exceed the UMRA threshold ($170 million in 2021, adjusted annually for inflation).

4 The mandates would include new regulatory and administrative requirements for Amtrak and rail passenger carriers and railcar manufacturers; new vehicle safety standards for cars, limousines, and commercial vehicles; and requirements for commercial vehicle and car manufacturers to install equipment using certain new technology. They also would extend the collection period for certain coal-mining reclamation fees and renew certain fees to be paid for merchandise and by passengers entering the country and certain fees collected by the Federal Communications Commission. They would increase fees paid by companies that transport hazardous materials. Grants authorized under d ivision B would offset some of the costs associated with implementing those requirements. The legislation also would preempt some state, local, and tribal laws that could otherwise cause government agencies to disclose information to the public.

5 The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is authorizing legislation; however, consistent with section 901 of title IX of division J of the legislation and in consultation with the Senate Committee on the Budget , CBO treats division J as appropriation legislation. Also, in keeping with the same section, CBO s estimate of discretionary spending accounts for funds rescinded under section 90007 of division I that were previously designated by the Congress as an emergency requirement, in keeping with section 251(b)(2)(A)(i) of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985. Enacting this legislation would create macroeconomic effects that in turn would cause budgetary feedback. CBO has not estimated those effects or their budgetary consequences for this legislation. CBO has not determined whether enacting Senate Amendment 2137 to 3684 would increase on- Budget deficits by more than $5 billion in any of the four consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2032.

6 On August 9, 2021, CBO reposted this cost estimate to correct a $5 billion coding error in Table 3 . That correction did not change the total budgetary effect shown in that table or in Table 1, the summary table. 2 Congressional Budget OfficeCost EstimateTable of Estimated Budgetary Effects of Senate Amendment 2137 to 3684, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, 2021202220232024202520262027202820292030 2031 Changes in Direct SpendingEstimated Budget Authority0-6,5921,490387-26215,19116,957 15,15015,28819,925-9,22110,21468,315 Estimated Outlays0-9,911-23,877-17,013-19,248-5,60 3-3,815-5,650-5,542-1,189-17,775-75,650- 109,619 Changes in RevenuesEstimated Revenues08,4951,0712,8424,1574,6574,9665 ,3315,6586,0716,43021,22149,681 Changes in Discretionary SpendingBudget Authority0162,99670,08868,49768,05766,21 51,9892,0252,0722,1452,222435,853446,306 Estimated Outlays014,04433,91849,05861,14469,96162 ,55650,08234,65123,32216,712228,125415,4 48 Total Changes0-4,3628,97029,20337,73959,70153, 77539,10123,45116,062-7,493131,254256,14 8On- Budget 0-4,3628,97029,20337,73959,70653,80039,1 5623,53516,182-7,358131,259256.

7 572 Off- Budget 00000-5-25-55-84-120-135-5-424 Sources: Congressional Budget Office ; staff of the Joint Committee on may not sum to totals because of rounding; enactment is assumed on October 1, 2021. Revised August 9, 2021as Proposed on August 1, 2021By Fiscal Year, Millions of Dollars2021-20262021-2031 Increases or Decreases (-) in Direct Spending Increases in RevenuesIncreases in Discretionary SpendingNet Increases or Decreases (-) in the Deficit Senate Amendment 2137 to 3684 would provide contract authority (a form of mandatory Budget authority) over the 2022-2026 period for the Department of Transportation to continue funding highway and transit system construction programs, motor carrier safety programs, and highway and motor vehicle safety programs funded from the Highway Trust , the contract authority provided in transportation legislation has been controlled by limitations on obligations contained in annual appropriation acts.

8 CBO expects that the practice would continue under Senate Amendment 2137 to 3684; thus, CBO s estimate of mandatory outlays under the bill is significantly lower than the contract authority provided. For more information on the split budgetary classification of surface transportation programs funded from the Highway Trust Fund, see Congressional Budget Office , The Highway Trust Fund and the Treatment of Surface Transportation Programs in the Federal Budget (June 2014), Budget OfficeCost EstimateTable 2. Senate Amendment 2137 to 3684, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, as Proposed on August 1, 2021 Estimated Changes in Direct Spending and Revenues20212022202320242025202620272028 202920302031 DIVISION A SURFACE TRANSPORTATIONTITLE I Federal-Aid Highwaysa,bContract Authority for Programs Funded by the Highway Trust FundEstimated Budget Authority011,10712,39913,73014,94816,291 16,29116,29116,29116,29116,29168,475149, 931 Estimated Outlays0000000000000 TITLE II Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovationb,cBudget Authority0000000000000 Estimated Outlays0081473111003133 DIVISION A TotalEstimated Budget Authority011,10712,39913,73014,94816,291 16,29116,29116,29116,29116,29168,475149, 931 Estimated Outlays0081473111003133 DIVISION B SURFACE TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENT ACT OF 2021 TITLE I Multimodal and Freight Transportationd.

9 EBudget Authority0000000000000 Estimated Outlays013333211111522 TITLE II RaileEstimated Budget Authority01**35 Estimated Outlays0*1**24 TITLE III Motor Carrier Safetya,eContract Authority for Programs Funded by the Highway Trust FundEstimated Budget Authority0180198216233251251251251251251 1,0782,332 Estimated Outlays0000000000000 TITLE IV Highway and Motor Vehicle Safetya,eContract Authority for Programs Funded by the Highway Trust FundEstimated Budget Authority0189214236259281281281281281281 1,1782,583 Estimated Outlays0000000000000 Emergency PreparednessEstimated Budget Authority0-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-10-6-10 Estimated Outlays0-12-7-4-1**-24-24 DIVISION B TotalEstimated Budget Authority0369411451491531531531531531532 2,2534,910 Estimated Outlays0-11-3-12321111-72 DIVISION C TRANSITaContract Authority for Programs Funded by the Highway Trust FundEstimated Budget Authority03,2053,4843,8404,1294,4924,492 4,4924,4924,4924,49219,15041,610 Estimated Outlays0000000000000 Revised August 9, 2021By Fiscal Year, Millions of Dollars2021-20262021-2031 Increases or Decreases (-) in Direct SpendingTITLE VI Hazardous Materialse4 Congressional Budget OfficeCost EstimateTable 2.

10 Senate Amendment 2137 to 3684, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, as Proposed on August 1, 2021 Estimated Changes in Direct Spending and Revenues20212022202320242025202620272028 202920302031 Revised August 9, 2021By Fiscal Year, Millions of Dollars2021-20262021-2031 DIVISION D ENERGYfTITLE I Grid Infrastructure and ResiliencyTransmission Facilitation ProgramgEstimated Budget Authority001607807807807801751701651602, 5003,950 Estimated Outlays001156757457757851801751701652,31 03,785 Power Marketing Administration Transmission Borrowing AuthorityhEstimated Budget Authority0801201702502301601601601701708 501,670 Estimated Outlays080120170250230160160160170170850 1,670 Title I TotalEstimated Budget Authority0802809501,0301,010940335330335 3303,3505,620 Estimated Outlays0802358459951,0059453403353403353 ,1605,455 TITLE VII Abandoned Mine Land ReclamationiEstimated Budget Authority0475074109137153166175177171417 1,259 Estimated Outlays04729691131431541671741751724011, 243 TITLE XII MiscellaneousExtension of Secure Rural SchoolsEstimated Budget Authority01951951950000000585585 Estimated Outlays01951951950000000585585 DIVISION D TotalEstimated Budget Authority03225251,2191,1391,1471,0935015 055125014,3527,464 Estimated Outlays03224591,1091,1081,1481,099507509 5155074,1467,283 DIVISION G OTHER AUTHORIZATIONS TITLE I Indian Water Rights Settlement Completion FundBudget Authority02,5000000000002,5002,500 Estimated Outlays02883503502281191201041023381031, 3352,102 TITLE III ReforestationEstimated Budget Authority0102104105107110115120124129134 5281.