CONSENSUS FORECASTS A Digest of ... - Consensus …

1 PageSignificant Changes in survey :Quarterly Country ForecastsUnited zone .. , Belgium, Denmark, Egypt,Finland, , Israel, Nigeria, Portugal,Saudi Arabia, South Exchange and Oil survey (continued):Quarterly Economic survey DateMarch 12, 2018 CONSENSUS FORECASTS (ISSN: 0957-0950) is published by CONSENSUS Economics Inc.,53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United KingdomTel: (44 20) 7491 3211 Fax: (44 20) 7409 2331 Web: :Claire V. M. HubbardDeputy Editor: Luke N. GeorgePublisher: Philip M. HubbardEvery month, CONSENSUS Economics surveys over 250 prominent financial and economic forecastersfor their estimates of a range of variables including future growth, inflation, interest rates and exchangerates. More than 20 countries are covered and the reference data, together with analysis and polls ontopical issues, is rushed to subscribers by express mail and Highlights Our next issue of CONSENSUS FORECASTS will be available atthe end of the day on Thursday April 12 and will includeLong-Term FORECASTS .

2 Copyright CONSENSUS Economics Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic, photocopying, digitalization or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. The Editors and CONSENSUS Economics Inc., do not guarantee or provide any warranties or takeany responsibility for the information set forth herein, including for the accuracy, completeness, non-infringement, suitability or timeliness of the FORECASTS or written analysis. UK GDP growth was downgraded to for 2017, the weakestoutturn in five years. The UK Treasury's FORECASTS unveiled onMarch 13 indicate that the next five years could be even weaker,with growth unlikely to eclipse in any one FORECASTS have climbed higher in recent surveys followingexpansionary fiscal measures which should support businessesand households.

3 Newly-announced tariffs on steel and aluminiummay have wider implications for global trade, however, and the USeconomy's current account deficit forecast has widened for upward revision to Japan's national accounts lifted the Q4 GDP pace to (q-o-q), boosted by stronger private consumptionand business investment. This marked an eighth straight quarterof positive growth, the longest period for almost three regular surveys of Quarterly FORECASTS (pages 3, 28 and 29)show GDP Growth, Consumption, Industrial Production,Inflation and 3-month Interest Rates through Q4 2019. TheSignificant Changes (page 2) contrasts latest quarterly GDPgrowth expectations with those from 6 months and 1 year . 00 . 51 . 01 . 52 . 02 . 53 . 03 . 5Q 1' 1 7Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1' 1 8Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1' 1 9Q 2Q 3Q 4 Quarterly CPI Inflation in the US, Japan, Germany,UK and Euro zone (see pages 2, 3, 28 and 29)(% change year-on-year)< CONSENSUS FORECASTS >JapanUnitedStatesUnitedKingdom%OutturnsE uro zone%GDP CPIFXC/A$%GDP CPIFXCONSENSUS FORECASTS A Digest of InternationalEconomic FORECASTS CONSENSUS Economics Inc.

4 All rights reserved. Under our agreement this publication may not bereproduced (complete or partial), redistributed, stored in a public retrieval system or broadcast to personsother than the email subscriber without the prior written permission of CONSENSUS Economics Inc. E-mail Edition: - Copyright CONSENSUS Economics Inc. 20182 MARCH 2018 SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE QUARTERLY CONSENSUS1 .11 .21 .31 .41 .51 .51 .51 .50 .00 .51 .01 .52 .02 .53 .03 .54 .01 Q'1 72 Q'1 73 Q'1 74 Q'1 71 Q'1 82 Q'1 83 Q'1 84 Q'1 81 Q'1 92 Q'1 93 Q'1 94 Q'1 91 .51 .61 .51 .51 .51 .51 .51 .50 .00 .51 .01 .52 .02 .53 .03 .54 .01 Q'1 72 Q'1 73 Q'1 74 Q'1 71 Q'1 82 Q'1 83 Q'1 84 Q'1 81 Q'1 92 Q'1 93 Q'1 94 Q'1 91 .81 .91 .91 .91 .92 . 02 .12 .30 . 00 . 51 . 01 . 52 . 02 . 53 . 03 . 54 . 01 Q'1 72 Q'1 73 Q'1 74 Q'1 71 Q'1 82 Q'1 83 Q'1 84 Q'1 81 Q'1 92 Q'1 93 Q'1 94 Q'1 91.

5 71 .81 .92 .02 .22 .32 .62 .60 .00 .51 .01 .52 .02 .53 .03 .54 .01 Q'1 72 Q'1 73 Q'1 74 Q'1 71 Q'1 82 Q'1 83 Q'1 84 Q'1 81 Q'1 92 Q'1 93 Q'1 94 Q'1 91 .21 .21 .10 .41 .51 .21 .51 .80 .00 .51 .01 .52 .02 .53 .03 .54 .01 Q'1 72 Q' 1 73 Q' 1 74 Q'1 71 Q'1 82 Q'1 83 Q'1 84 Q'1 81 Q'1 92 Q'1 93 Q'1 94 Q' 1 92 .32 .52 .72 .92 .82 .82 .82 .80 .00 .51 .01 .52 .02 .53 .03 .54 .01 Q'1 72 Q' 1 73 Q'1 74 Q'1 71 Q'1 82 Q'1 83 Q'1 84 Q'1 81 Q' 1 92 Q'1 93 Q'1 94 Q' 1 9 Changes in G-7 Quarterly FORECASTS for GDP contrasts theMarch 2018 CONSENSUS projections in blue (pages 3, 28 and29) with those from September 2017 and March 2017. USforecasts have been raised as the broader global upturncoincides with expansionary tax policies and buoyant jobsdata. Conversely, Canadian FORECASTS have edged downamid uncertainty surrounding NAFTA and growingprotectionism from US President Trump.

6 Germany s economyshould see an upbeat year, while France has been supportedby rising business investment and improving labour UK outlook has stabilised, but at a muted level, andobservers remain wary of a slowdown next year as Brexit andhigh inflation hold back investment and spending s economic revival may moderate, notably in Q42019, when a consumption tax hike may be - GDP Growth - Quarterly FORECASTS inMarch and September 2017, and March 2018(% change y-o-y)% change,y-o-yJapan - GDP Growth - Quarterly FORECASTS inMarch and September 2017, and March 2018(% change y-o-y)March 2017 September2017% change,y-o-yFrance - GDP Growth - Quarterly FORECASTS inMarch and September 2017, and March 2018(% change y-o-y)% change,y-o-yUK - GDP Growth - Quarterly FORECASTS inMarch and September 2017, and March 2018(% change y-o-y)% change,y-o-y% change,y-o-y% change,y-o-yItaly - GDP Growth - Quarterly FORECASTS inMarch and September 2017, and March 2018 (% change y-o-y)March 2017 September2017 March 2017 September 2017 March 2017 September2017 March 2017 September 2017 March 2017 September 2017< CONSENSUS FORECASTS >March 2018< CONSENSUS FORECASTS >March 2018< CONSENSUS FORECASTS >March 2018< CONSENSUS FORECASTS >March 2018< CONSENSUS FORECASTS >March 2018 OutturnsOutturnsOutturnsOutturnsOutturns Outturns< CONSENSUS FORECASTS >March 20181.

7 71 . 81 . 92 . 12 . 12 . 11 . 92 . 40 . 00 . 51 . 01 . 52 . 02 . 53 . 03 . 54 . 01 Q' 1 72 Q'1 73 Q'1 74 Q'1 71 Q'1 82 Q'1 83 Q'1 84 Q' 1 81 Q'1 92 Q'1 93 Q'1 94 Q'1 9% change,y-o-yMarch 2017< CONSENSUS FORECASTS >March 2018 OutturnsSeptember2017 Canada - GDP Growth - Quarterly FORECASTS inMarch and September 2017, and March 2018 (% change y-o-y)Germany - GDP Growth - Quarterly FORECASTS inMarch and September 2017, and March 2018 (% change y-o-y) Copyright CONSENSUS Economics Inc. 20183 MARCH 2018 QUARTERLY FORECASTSU nited States JapanIn addition to their regular annual FORECASTS , country panellists were asked to provide individual quarterly estimates coveringthe period through to Q4 2019. Figures in normal type are official, published data with CONSENSUS FORECASTS based on theaverages of our panels' FORECASTS shown in bold italics.

8 Unless stated otherwise, all definitions correspond to those usedon the individual country pages. As indicated, normal text numbers are percentage changes over the same quarter of theprevious year; italics denote implied changes over the previous quarter (not annualised). Readers should note that the fourquarterly CONSENSUS FORECASTS covering a year may not equate to the annual CONSENSUS forecast shown for the same variableon pages 4-24, since the groups of survey respondents may be different, or because of End periodQ t r 1 Q tr 2 Q tr 3Q t r 4 Q t r 1 Q tr 2 Q tr 3Q t r 4 Q t r 1Q t r 2Q tr 3 Q tr 4G r o s s D o m e s tic P r o d u c t * 1 .31 .61 .92 . c h a n g e , q tr /q tr0 .50 .60 .60 .40 .20 .30 .30 .30 .30 .30 .5-0 .8P r iv a te C o n s u m p t io n *0.

9 71 .70 .61 . c h a n g e , q tr /q tr0 .30 .9-0 .60 .50 .10 .40 .20 .30 .20 .51 .1-2 .1In d u s tr ia l P r o d u c t io n *3 .95 .84 .64 . o n s u m e r P r ic e s *0 .30 .40 .60 . m o n th Y e n (T IB O R ) r a t e , % 10 .10 .10 .10 . * % change over previous year* % change over previous year Tables continued on page 28 and 291 End periodQ4 2017 was a very upbeat quarter for most of the G-7 andWestern Europe economies. In the United States, GDPgrowth on a y-o-y basis accelerated to , from inQ3, even though q-o-q activity slowed on the back of adownturn in private inventory investment. Consumption andbusiness investment, however, contributed to growth. Ourpanel s GDP expectations for the next eight quarters showreal strength, averaging over the course of 2018 asmajor tax breaks for corporates and households fuel domesticdemand.

10 In y-o-y terms, though, the US did not post thefastest pace of growth at the end of last year: Germany,Canada, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden all experi-enced rates of close to 3% or above. The Europeaneconomies were propelled by the Euro-wide recovery andrebound in world trade fundamentals, and Euro zone mem-bers are also being supported by expansive monetaryQ tr 1 Q tr 2 Q tr 3Q tr4 Q tr 1 Q tr 2 Q tr 3Q tr4 Q tr 1 Q tr 2Q tr 3 Q tr 4G ross D omestic Product* change, Consumption* change, Production* onsumer Prices* month Treasury B ill Rate, % End period 2 Quarterly data (source: Bundesbank) are working-day and seasonally adjusted.