Cost of Black Saturday bushfires

1 cost of Black Saturday bushfires TANGIBLE $ bn INTANGIBLE $ bn cost of Queensland floods TANGIBLE $ bn INTANGIBLE $ bn 7bn $. $ cost of Newcastle earthquake TANGIBLE $ bn INTANGIBLE $ bn $. 32. 3. T he cost of natural disasters: Australian experiences Key points The case studies demonstrate that the total economic cost of natural disasters has been underestimated by at least 50%. Accounting for the tangible and intangible costs, the forecast annual cost of natural disasters across government, business and communities in Australia is expected to reach about $33 billion by 2050. This estimate is likely to be conservative. Prolonged and extensive rainfall from December Case studies showing the cost 2010 to January 2011 led to extensive flooding of natural disasters in Australia in Queensland (Queensland Floods Commission This section provides a detailed assessment of the of Inquiry, 2012).

2 This was followed soon after by tangible and intangible costs of two natural disasters: Cyclone Yasi on 3 February, 2011. Yasi made landfall as the 2010 11 Queensland floods and the 2009 a category 5 cyclone in Far North Queensland, an area Victoria Black Saturday bushfires . The costs have which had just recovered from Cyclone Larry. been estimated using a bottom-up methodology, In a Queensland survey on the effects of the floods, which estimates the total economic cost by applying 47% of respondents reported that their own home, a disaster-specific incidence rate and average cost homes in their suburb, or their family home had of each impact to the affected population. The been damaged or destroyed (Queensland Health, methodology used to generate these estimates is 2011). People from disadvantaged socioeconomic explained in Appendix D.

3 These case studies are backgrounds and in outer regional and remote areas illustrative of the magnitude of intangible costs, were affected more in a number of ways, such as relative to tangible costs. distress and feeling terrified, helpless or hopeless, or It is important to note that the ratio of tangible having reduced incomes. to intangible costs vary by the type, severity and geographic location of the natural disaster. For The economic cost of the example, the incidence rate of psychological distress 2010 11 Queensland floods between the Queensland floods and the Black Saturday bushfires was broadly similar. However, the The 2010 11 floods were widespread and had floods affected a vast area including highly populated devastating effects on communities. More than centres of Brisbane and Ipswich, while the Victoria 78% of the state (an area bigger than France Black Saturday bushfires affected mostly regional and and Germany combined) was declared a disaster rural communities that are less densely populated.

4 Zone, and over million people were affected Queensland floods (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, 2012). Cyclones and flooding have posed a serious threat The intangible costs associated with the to Queensland communities and industry in the past, Queensland floods were estimated to be as large particularly in the north. This section focuses on the as the tangible costs, at an estimated $ billion impact of the cyclones and floods that occurred there dollars and $ billion dollars, respectively. This in 2010 11, however Queensland has experienced means the ratio of intangible costs to tangible multiple serious disaster events in the last decade costs is likely to be larger than (including Cyclone Larry in March 2006). The economic cost of the social impact of natural disasters March 2016 33. 3. The cost of natural disasters: Australian experiences Deaths and injuries Using these surveys as proxies to estimate the number of people who had short- and long-term high to Thirty-six people died in the floods, including three very high psychological distress, the lifetime cost of who were missing and later declared deceased.

5 Major mental health issues resulting from the floods is flooding occurred throughout most of the Brisbane River estimated at around $ billion (net present value catchment, most severely in the catchments of Lockyer in 2015 dollars). Creek, which caused the loss of 19 lives. Risky or high-risk alcohol consumption The number of people injured in the floods is not documented. However, based on a report by Van den Mental health-related behaviours such as substance Honert and McAneney (2011), these floods were very use (alcohol and smoking) have been documented similar to the 1974 Australia Day floods in Queensland following natural disasters. Turner et al. (2013). in which 300 people were injured. Applying a ratio surveyed a sample of 3,000 residents (aged 18 years defined by the Bureau of Transport Economics (2001), and over) in flood-affected areas in the greater it is estimated the 2010 11 floods caused 100 severe Brisbane region.

6 Of the 960 respondents, injuries and 200 minor injuries. reported some form of direct flood impact. The group affected directly by the floods were times more Based on the average life expectancy in Queensland likely to increase their alcohol use, and times more and the average age of people affected by the floods, likely to increase their tobacco use. the lifetime cost of deaths and injuries is estimated at around $320 million (net present value in Using this to estimate the proportion of the affected 2015 dollars). population who had short- and long-term increases in risky and high-risk alcohol consumption, the Mental health issues lifetime cost resulting from the floods was Adults of working age and residents of regional, estimated at about $20 million (net present remote and socioeconomically disadvantaged value in 2015 dollars).

7 Areas, were disproportionately more likely to report Chronic and non-communicable diseases emotional impact caused by the floods. Of a sample of more than 6,000 Queensland residents exposed to Evidence shows that natural disasters exacerbate the floods, reported feeling terrified, helpless chronic disease, whether diagnosed or undiagnosed. or hopeless', and thought they might be badly The most common illnesses are cardiovascular injured or die'. Up to five months after the disasters, disease, diabetes and respiratory conditions such were still distressed' and were worried as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). about how they might manage'. Chronic disease exacerbation can be due to illness (for example, from increased susceptibility to injury Similarly, Alderman et al. (2013) found that residents or infection) or due to the disaster itself (such as by whose homes were directly affected by the Brisbane separation from medication or treatment, inhaled flooding were more likely to report poorer physical toxins, crush or blast injuries, or contamination of food and mental health.)

8 The affected residents were: and water) (Miller & Arquilla, 2008; Owens & Martsolf, times more likely to report poorer health than 2014; Kobayashi et al., 2013). those not affected by the floods Ryan et al. (2015) did focus groups and interviews times more likely to report respiratory issues with people with non-communicable diseases (NCDs), times more likely to report psychological distress disaster responders and health specialists in the Cairns, Toowoomba and Townsville regions. They found times more likely to report poor sleep quality a disaster can interrupt management and care for times more likely to have probable people with NCDs living in rural and remote areas of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) . Queensland, which has the potential to exacerbate their condition or even result in death. Mental health issues were the largest impact of the floods.

9 34. 3. The cost of natural disasters: Australian experiences There is also some anecdotal evidence that people confidence. Because the value of unemployment and affected by natural disasters may develop diseases productivity loss is captured in several ways in the such as cardiovascular disease from elevated stress methodology (for example, productivity loss resulting and blood pressure. However, this is not quantified from physical injury, mental health issues, chronic due to insufficient quantitative information and the disease, alcohol misuse and family violence), this has complexities of attributing it to the natural disaster. not been separately costed, to avoid double counting. According to Alderman et al. (2013), people directly In 2011, Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysed impacted by the floods were times more likely to the effect of natural disasters on personal income and experience worse overall health and times more the disruption to living arrangements when disasters likely to experience worse respiratory health.

10 Hit. The analysis used the Australian Government's Disaster Income Recovery Subsidy (equal to the Using a combination of these studies and the Newstart Allowance) as a proxy for unemployment. prevalence of diabetes, COPD and stroke in It found the number of people applying for the Queensland as a baseline, it is assumed that these Newstart Allowance rose dramatically following the conditions will be exacerbated in a proportion of floods. Importantly, repeated flooding events in North people post-disaster. From this, it is estimated Queensland prior to the 2010 11 floods appeared that the cost of the exacerbation of diabetes and to have made people vulnerable to loss of income. COPD, and the development of stroke resulting Between the North Queensland flood in 2009, the from the floods was around $430 million (net South West Queensland flooding in 2010 and the present value in 2015 dollars).