Example: stock market

Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses

1 Volume 9, Issue 4 | April 2017 Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses A PUBLICATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM RESEARCH (ICPVTR) ISSN 2382-6444 | Volume 14, Issue 1 January 2022 B u i l d i n g a G l o b a l N e t w o r k f o r S e c u r i t yCounter Terrorist Trends and Analyses South Asia Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Singapore The Middle East: Jihadist Militancy, National And Intra-State Tensions, And State-Society Dichotomy Central Asia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan Underlying The Islamic State (IS) Propaganda: Striving For Relevance And Dominance ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT Global Threat Assessment China Xinjiang Province Radical Ideological Narratives Following The Taliban s Takeover of Afghanistan Extreme Right Violence In The West: In Remission?

WElcano Royal Institute Professor of Dr. Stephen Sloan Professor Emeritus, The University of Oklahoma Lawrence J. Chastang, Distinguished Professor ,Terrorism Studies, The University of Central Florida Dr. Fernando Reinares Director, Program on Global Terrorism, Security Studies Universidad Rey Juan Carlos Associate Dean (Policy Studies),

Tags:

  Studies, Institute, Professors, Institute professor

Information

Domain:

Source:

Link to this page:

Please notify us if you found a problem with this document:

Other abuse

Transcription of Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses

1 1 Volume 9, Issue 4 | April 2017 Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses A PUBLICATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM RESEARCH (ICPVTR) ISSN 2382-6444 | Volume 14, Issue 1 January 2022 B u i l d i n g a G l o b a l N e t w o r k f o r S e c u r i t yCounter Terrorist Trends and Analyses South Asia Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Singapore The Middle East: Jihadist Militancy, National And Intra-State Tensions, And State-Society Dichotomy Central Asia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan Underlying The Islamic State (IS) Propaganda: Striving For Relevance And Dominance ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT Global Threat Assessment China Xinjiang Province Radical Ideological Narratives Following The Taliban s Takeover of Afghanistan Extreme Right Violence In The West: In Remission?

2 2 Volume 9, Issue 4 | April 2017 Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses W Dr. Stephen Sloan Professor Emeritus, The University of Oklahoma Lawrence J. Chastang, Distinguished Professor ,Terrorism studies , The University of Central Florida Dr. Fernando Reinares Director, Program on Global Terrorism, Elcano Royal institute Professor of Security studies Universidad Rey Juan Carlos Dr. John Harrison Associate Editor, Journal of Transportation Security Dr. Hamoon Khelghat-Doost Assistant Professor of Political Science, sk dar University Dr. Jolene Jerard Adjunct Senior Fellow, International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, S. Rajaratnam School of International studies Dr. Rohan Gunaratna Professor of Security studies , S. Rajaratnam School of International studies Dr. Kumar Ramakrishna Associate Dean (Policy studies ), Head of International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, and Research Adviser to National Security studies Programme S.

3 Rajaratnam School of International studies Dr. Marcin Styszy ski Assistant Professor, Department of Arabic and Islamic studies Adam Mickiewicz University ADVISORY BOARD The views expressed in the articles are those of the authors and not of ICPVTR, RSIS, NTU or the organisations to which the authors are affiliated. Articles may not be reproduced without prior permission. Please contact the editors for more information at The editorial team also welcomes any feedback or comments. EDITORIAL BOARD Senior Editorial Advisor Editor Associate Editor Assistant Editor Copy Editor Design and Layout Noorita Mohamed-Noor Amresh Gunasingham Abdul Basit Kalicharan Veera Singam Kyler Ong Okkie Tanupradja Our centre has launched the Southeast Asia Militant Atlas, a dynamic and growing interactive map designed to provide researchers with a consolidated visual database of ISIS and Jemaah Islamiyah Terrorist -related incidents in Southeast Asia.

4 Please access it via SOUTHEAST ASIA MILITANT ATLAS Global Threat Assessment 2021 1 Introduction: The Return of the Taliban and Its Impact In 2021, as the COVID-19 pandemic entered its second year, the terrorism landscape also continued to occupy policy attention worldwide. Especially prominent was the US strategic failure 1 in preventing the Taliban s return to power in Afghanistan, which essentially represented a shot of adrenaline into the arm of Islamist terror networks Given Al-Qaeda s (AQ) historic links with the Taliban, the former has arguably never been better positioned since Osama bin Laden s The Taliban takeover in Kabul also impacted the geopolitical posture of regional states, particularly neighbouring Pakistan, signalling a likely intensifying of its support for anti-India groups in Jammu and Pakistani domestic militant and radical groups such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the radical Barelvi Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP) were also emboldened vis- -vis the Pakistani state itself.

5 Significantly, TTP, the deadliest Pakistani Terrorist group maintaining political distance from both AQ and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) refocused instead on excising the ex-FATA region from Pakistan to convert it into a self-styled theocracy, rather than transforming Pakistan itself into a Sharia state. 5 The Taliban s takeover also represented an iconic moment for Central Asian groups, with the Syria-based Katibat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (KTJ) claiming that it was achieved through a sustained patience and determined struggle. 6 Similarly, Southeast Asian pro- 1 See Amin Saikal, The Middle East: Jihadist Militancy, National and Intra-State Tensions, and State-Society Dichotomy, in this volume. 2 Ibid. 3 Ibid. 4 See Sudha Ramachandran, India, in this volume.

6 5 See Abdul Basit, Pakistan, in this volume. 6 See Nodirbek Soliev and Raffaello Pantucci, Central Asia, in this volume. Taliban-AQ networks drew the lesson that sheer perseverance in fighting a mighty enemy and divine intervention will likewise make them victorious as The impact of the Taliban victory on the Islamic State (IS) presented a more complex threat picture. At one level, it generally represented a symbolic win for all Islamist extremist networks worldwide, including IS, because it resuscitated Islamist militants belief in jihad to establish an Islamic state, and then a global Muslim caliphate. 8 Moreover, although AQ and IS are geopolitical rivals, they share an essentially similar ideological agenda, despite pursuing differing timetables and operational strategies.

7 Hence, at times, it is hard to differentiate between their operations, given every attack that IS has executed equates to what al-Qaeda has also wanted, especially in the Yet, in Afghanistan itself, IS appeared violently opposed to the Taliban and its AQ allies. IS responded to the Taliban victory by publicly questioning its Islamist legitimacy, charging the new Taliban is essentially in cahoots with the US. IS also declared itself the only group fighting to establish a caliphate, thereby deserving of the support of global The tension between IS and Taliban-AQ was replicated in other regions. For instance, the Indonesian jihadist network Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) regarded the Taliban s return as vindication of its own longer-term strategy of strategic patience in gradually building up a solid base of community support, whilst engaging in i dad (preparation) to ultimately create an Islamic state by force.

8 Conversely, 7 See Mahfuh Bin Haji Halimi, Muhammad Saiful Alam Shah Bin Sudiman and Ahmad Saiful Rijal Bin Hassan, Radical Ideological Narratives Following the Taliban s Takeover of Afghanistan, in this volume. 8 Ibid. 9 Saikal, The Middle East. 10 See Nur Aziemah Azman, Underlying the Islamic State (IS) Propaganda: Striving for Relevance and Dominance, in this volume. GLOBAL THREAT ASSESSMENT 2021 Global Threat Assessment 2021 2 Indonesian IS supporters reacted negatively. That said, the Taliban victory is unlikely to motivate JI and IS supporters to plan attacks in Indonesia for In the Philippines, the formerly AQ-linked Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) congratulated the Taliban on its victory, but vowed to maintain the hard-fought peace achieved for the people of Mindanao.

9 12 Meanwhile, while assessing that the threat from Islamist extremism and terrorism remained high in 2021, Singapore identified IS and its affiliated groups as the primary threat actor to the country and wider region. 13 Operational Issues and Challenges for Islamist Militants Operational Spaces A Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, with its vast ungoverned spaces, could potentially relapse into an AQ stronghold, attracting foreign fighters as well as some disaffected Taliban fighters. 14 Certainly, the revival of suicide terrorism by the TTP in Pakistan in 2021 was possibly linked to the Taliban s recapture of Kabul, affording TTP more space and freedom of action to train and use suicide bombers for attacks in Pakistan. 15 The notion that a Taliban-run Afghanistan may revert to a Terrorist stronghold is reinforced by doubts concerning the Biden Administration s plan for over the horizon drone attacks targeting the ISKP affiliate in ISKP has developed a stronghold in the eastern province of Nangarhar and can turn out to be a melting pot of radicalised individuals from the region as well as anti-Taliban groups.

10 17 Moreover, while the Taliban seem intent on targeting ISKP, its attitude towards AQ and other networks remains ambivalent, reinforcing the idea that Afghanistan may be open for business once again: Bangladeshi authorities thus reported that at least three Ansar al-Islam (AAI) members had travelled to IS 11 See V. Arianti and Unaesah Rahmah, Indonesia, in this volume. 12 See Kenneth Yeo, Philippines, in this volume. 13 See Kalicharan Veera Singam, Singapore, in this volume. 14 See Shanthie Mariet D Souza, Afghanistan, in this volume. 15 Basit, Pakistan. 16 D Souza, Afghanistan. 17 Ibid. meanwhile continues to operate as a low-level and well-entrenched insurgency in rural areas in Syria, exploiting the remoteness and vastness of the central Syrian desert as well as the mountainous terrain.


Related search queries