Doing Resource and Risk Assessment with GeoX

1 CCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX1 Doing Resource and Risk Assessment with GeoX2 day course, PPM WorkshopPhnom Penh,Feb 26 - 27 2003 CCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX2 SHAREDDATA GeoX: Assessing Play &ProspectRisks, Resources & Value (RRV)> Integrated, interactive decision-oriented analysisCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX3 Why GeoX? Provides a complete model-based RRV- Assessment framework that supports integration of data and judgement Focuses decisions in the context of the relevant uncertainties and risks Easy to use, intuitive workflow day one value Unique documention functions assures quality and promotes learning A common data base facilitates rapid access, sharing and re-use of dataCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX4 Course Objectives & Approach Master the mechanics of using GeoX Hands-on training Be able to estimate parameters, verify & interpret results Resource and geotechnical risk Assessment with gProspectR and gPlayR Aggregation Review exploration decision process workflows and practices Best practice and system administration tools Active discussion and dialogCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w.

2 GeoX5 General training outlineDay 1 Basic prospect Resource and risk assessments Standard volumetric and risk input Different ways of modeling volumes Aggregation Best practice, configuration and system toolsDay 2 Basic play Resource and risk assessments Play Assessment Calibrating and framing prospect analysesCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX6 Day 1 Resource and Risk evaluation with GeoX09:00 Introduction to gProspectR; Resource and Risk assessment10:00 Case A1: Introduction and walk-through 10:30 Hands On Case 1: The A1 prospect11:30 Extended volumetrics12:00 Lunch13:00 Hands On Case 2: The BG prospect14:00 A CNPA prospect :Presentation14:30 Hands On Case 3: The CNPA prospect15:30 Introduction to gAggregateProspect16:30 Best practice and system administration tools CCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX7 Day 2 Resource and Risk evaluation with GeoX09:00 Review of Day 1; Q&A; revisit CNPA prospect10:00 Introduction to play Assessment with gPlayR10:30 Case Upper Cretaceous Play: walk-through 11:00 Hands On Case 4: The UCret play12:00 Lunch13:00 Integrated prospect and play analysis 14:00 A CNPA play :Presentation14:30 Hands On Case 5: The CNPA play15:30 Additional GeoX RR functions and features16:30 Review and evaluation CCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w.

3 GeoX8 GeoX OverviewgPlayRgProspectRgFullCycleDBgSce narioExcel, Spotfire Exportand Import-ReportinggFieldgProfilegPortfolio GeoXDCommon GeoDatabase for sharing and linking information Data from databasesBest Practice documentsReady-made GeoX templatesgAggregategDiscoverygProspectRC COP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX9 Key input to gPlayR, gProspectR and gFullCycleRec. ResourcesDry hole riskgProspectR2-levelrisk modelFull CycleprospectvaluationmodelVolumetricmod elG&G data, risks etcCosts, taxes, prices etcgFullCycleDecision treeNPVIRREMVRec. ResourcesSize by rankPlay/Prospect risksgPlayR2-levelrisk modelVolumetricmodelG&G data, risks etcCourse focusCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX10A1 Prospect - Demonstration ScriptRR Assessment using gProspectR Access from GeoX database Inputs Documentation Results SensitivityValue Assessment using gFullCycle (short) Inputs ResultsCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w.

4 GeoX11 Prospect Assessment BasicsBasic Volumetrics Main formulas for quantitative Assessment Main input Quantifying uncertaintyBasic Risking Why do we risk plays and prospects? Risk factors Quantifying riskCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX12 Basic Oil & Gas VolumetricsRock Fluids Hydrocarbons-in-Place HCIP = GRV Net/Gross HC saturation Fill (1/FVF) Hydrocarbon Pore Volume (HCPV under reservoir conditions)(HCIP under surface conditions)Recoverable Hydrocarbons = HCIP * Recovery FactorBasic volumetric equationAnalog + engineering/economicsRecoverable oil/ gasCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX13 Quantifying uncertainty Distributions Monte Carlo Simulations CorrelationsCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX14 Statistical distributions in GeoXProbability density Function (PDF)- Probability of occurrenceInverse Cumulative Distribution Function (ICDF) - Probability of value or >Mode (most likely)Mean(arithmetic average)0 Median(50% bigger /50% smaller)CCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w.

5 GeoX15 InputCalculationrandom result combinationsOutputMonte Carlo Simulation applied to the Volumetric Formula1000 Cumulative Probability%Cum. 0 MEANV alueof Value or MoreXXXXXAreaPorosityFVFR ecoveryThicknessShRecoverable VolumesRandomNumberGeneratorCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX16 Correlation between parametersModeling dependency between parameters using Correlation Coefficients in Monte Carlo: Some parameters are positively dependent ( porosity and recovery factor) Other parameters are negatively dependent ( area of closure and thichkness, limited sand influx)CCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX17 Risk and Uncertainty in Prospect ExplorationRiskUncertainty- Discrete events- Range of possible outcomesNo significant hydrocarbons (dry)Range of possible outcomes: - Distribution of HC volumesrisk chance of success (COS)chance of failure[Dry Hole Risk = 1 COS]30%70%CCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w.

6 GeoX18 Basic Prospect Risk ModelSeparate prospect risk factors into (regional) play level risks and (local) prospect level risksmarginal play probabilityP(Play)conditional prospect probabilityP(Prospect|Play)*Psuccess=P(P rospect|Play) X P(Play)Pfailure(dry hole) =1- Psuccess(play is OK but local risks caused failure)(play is not functioning!)(* read as prospect chance of success given that the play is successful)CCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX19GK Default Risk FactorsPLAY LEVEL FACTORS R Reservoir T Trap S SourcePROSPECT LEVEL FACTORS R Reservoir T Trap S SourceP(Play) = R*T*SP(Prospect|Play) = R*T*SCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX20 Case 1: The A1 ProspectA1 is a faulted anticline oil prospect. The Upper Cretaceous MataskFormation turbidite sandstone reservoir (2500 m) is sealed by adjacent siltstones. Water depth is 70 is assumed to have originated from the prolific Middle Jurassic shalesmigrating out of the thermally mature bounding basin.

7 There is considerable uncertainty regarding the sealing status of the fault. However, due to the potential presence of significant clay minerals, reservoir quality is also a major PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX21 Case 1 workflow Log on to GeoX Open GeoXplorer Create A1 prospect in Training basin and Upper Cretaceous play Create analysis of A1 prospect Edit inputs Save Calc Review results PrintCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX223 main GeoX interaction components Main Menu (Launcher) Opened when you log on to GeoX Used to launch GeoXplorer and control analyses GeoXplorer Used to access and create analyses Launches tools Tool Notebook This is where you enter your estimates and get your resultsCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX23 GeoX Launcher (main menu bar)MenuCommandsCommandButtonsCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w.

8 GeoX24 GeoXplorer = Window to the database Create analyses Access analyses View database by GeoSystem, Block, Security etc Search for analyses Generate reportsCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX25 GeoXplorer Create New Basin Folder Point to the database icon (top level) on the left-hand side of GeoXplorer Right-click mouse Select New BasinCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX26 GeoXplorer Create New Play Folder Point to the basin folder on the left-hand side of GeoXplorer Right-click mouse Select New PlayCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX27 GeoXplorer Create New Prospect Folder Point to the play folder on the left-hand side of GeoXplorer Right-click mouse Select New Prospect to create a new prospect folderCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX28 GeoXplorer Create New Prospect Analysis Point to the prospect folder on the left-hand side of GeoXplorer Right-click mouse Select New prospect analysis this launches the Tool NotebookCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w.

9 GeoX29 Several analyses attached to the same prospect folder To open an existing analysis, select, and right clickBasin FolderPlay FolderProspect FolderGeoXplorer HierarchyAnalysis attachedto Prospect FolderCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX30 Tool notebook interfaceSet-upVolume input pageParameters sub-pageCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX31 Parameter Input Panel (PIP)CCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX32 Parameter Input Panel (PIP) for risk factorsCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX33 Documentation of parameter inputAll estimates are based on information and assumptions!Recording this reference /justification data is critical for internal reviews and updatesThe best place to store this data is embedded in the Assessment in an organized database structureCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX34 Documentation of parameter inputDocument your input: free text justification data source (reports, well-data files etc.)

10 Attachments (as shown)CCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX35 Now it is your turn to use GeoX/gProspectR!Case 1: The A1 ProspectCCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w. GeoX36 Your estimates of the volume parameters are:The initial risk Assessment review has proposed the following estimates:Case 1: A1 Prospect - InputRisk factor P(play) P(prospect | play)HC Source [%] 100 Migration [%] 100 Timing [%] 90 Reservoir Presence [%] 90 Trap [%] 90 Effective porosity [%] 65HC accumulation [%] 80 Parameter [units] Distribution Min (or Lo) Mode Max (or Hi) Area of Closure [km2] lognormLoHi Thickness [m] triangular Factor [decimal] constant Net/Gross Ratio [decimal] uniform [decimal] triangular Fill [decimal] triangular Saturation [decimal] triangular Factor Oil [decimal] triangular Factor Assoc. Gas [decimal] triangular Form. Factor (Bo) [m3/Sm3] triangular 2 Gas Oil Ratio [Sm3/Sm3] triangular 60100 180 CCOP PPMFeb 26-27, 2003 Risk and Resource Assessment w.