DRAFT FOR COMMENT 29 20 - icef.go.jp

1 DRAFT FOR COMMENT 9 29 20 November 2021 i Authors David Sandalow Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University Chair, ICEF Innovation Roadmap Project Roger Aines Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Julio Friedmann Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University Peter Kelemen Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University Colin McCormick Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University Ian Power School of the Environment, Trent University Briana Schmidt Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Siobhan A.

2 (Sasha) Wilson Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta CITATION Cite report as: David Sandalow, Roger Aines, Julio Friedmann, Peter Kelemen, Colin McCormick, Ian Power, Briana Schmidt, Siobhan (Sasha) Wilson, Carbon Mineralization Roadmap (ICEF Innovation Roadmap Project, November 2021). This roadmap was prepared to facilitate dialogue at the Eighth Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (October 2021), for final release at COP26 in November 2021. We are deeply grateful to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), Japan for launching and supporting the ICEF Innovation Roadmap Project of which this is a part.

3 November 2021 1 Table of Contents PREFACE .. 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: .. 3 CHAPTER 1: .. 8 INTRODUCTION TO CARBON MINERALIZATION CHAPTER 2: .. 15 SCIENCE PRIMER CHAPTER 3: .. 20 UNDERGROUND INJECTION CHAPTER 4: .. 29 ENHANCED ROCK WEATHERING CHAPTER 5: .. 37 MINING WASTES CHAPTER 6: .. 47 INDUSTRIAL WASTES CHAPTER 7: .. 57 cement AND CONCRETE CHAPTER 8: .. 65 CROSS CUTTING RESEARCH NEEDS CHAPTER 9: .. 72 POLICY CHAPTER 10: .. 78 COMPARISON WITH DIRECT AIR CAPTURE CHAPTER 11: .. 83 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS November 2021 2 PREFACE This ninth ICEF roadmap explores a topic that has received too little attention: the potential for carbon mineralization to play an important role in helping fight climate change.

4 Carbon mineralization is a natural process in which carbon dioxide (CO2) becomes bound in rocks as a solid mineral, permanently removing the CO2 from the atmosphere. This process could provide the foundation for many activities that not only help fight climate change by removing additional CO2 from the atmosphere, but create jobs and deliver local environmental benefits as well. Resources for carbon mineralization are abundant and located in dozens of countries around the world. This roadmap builds on the body of literature produced annually in connection with the ICEF conference.

5 Previous roadmaps have addressed: Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) (2020) Industrial Heat Decarbonization (2019) Direct Air Capture (2018) Carbon Dioxide Utilization (2017 and 2016) Energy Storage (2017) Zero Energy Buildings (2016) Solar and Storage (2015) This roadmap is a team effort. We are deeply grateful for the support provided by the ICEF Secretariat, ICEF Steering Committee (including in particular its chair, Nobuo Tanaka), the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), experts at the Institute of Energy Economics Japan, and our design and copy edit team (including in particular Ms.)

6 Jeannette Yusko and Dr. Kathryn Lindl). The ICEF Innovation Roadmap Project aims to contribute to the global dialogue about solutions to the challenge of climate change. We welcome your thoughts, reactions and suggestions. David Sandalow Chair, ICEF Innovation Roadmap Project Inaugural Fellow, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University November 2021 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION TO CARBON MINERALIZATION According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), significant volumes of carbon dioxide (CO2) must be removed from the atmosphere for the world to achieve its climate goals.

7 One approach for CO2 removal that has received relatively little attention is carbon mineralization, a process in which CO2 becomes bound in rocks as a solid mineral. Carbon mineralization happens naturally when certain rocks are exposed to CO2, permanently removing roughly GtCO2 from the atmosphere each year. There are two broad approaches to increasing the amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere via carbon mineralization: injecting CO2 rich fluids into rock formations deep underground (in situ mineralization) and exposing crushed rocks on the Earth s surface to CO2 bearing gases (ex situ or surficial mineralization).

8 As a strategy for CO2 removal and sequestration, carbon mineralization has many strengths. First, mineralization resources are effectively unlimited and located in dozens of countries around the world. Second, carbon mineralization offers one of the most permanent forms of CO2 removal and sequestration available, binding CO2 into solid rock. Third, the chemical reactions that mineralize CO2 do not require energy inputs. Finally, the costs of carbon mineralization appear to be reasonable and could be reduced. There are also several challenges with using carbon mineralization for CO2 removal and sequestration.

9 First, most natural carbon mineralization happens very slowly. Second, the distribution of optimal mineral resources is only coarsely understood. Third, while some products of carbon mineralization have commercial value, those values are typically low. Finally, carbon mineralization for climate mitigation is not yet practiced at large scale. The authors estimate that, with strong and sustained policy support from governments around the world, carbon mineralization processes could remove 1 GtCO2 from the atmosphere per year by 2035 and 10 GtCO2 per year by 2050.

10 More research is needed to test this hypothesis and define conditions under which carbon mineralization could achieve this potential. Chapter 2. SCIENCE PRIMER Rocks are one of the Earth s largest carbon reservoirs. CO2 is transferred from the atmosphere into rocks in part through a process known as chemical weathering. (CO2 is also transferred from the atmosphere into rocks via photosynthesis, where carbon from marine organisms eventually forms limestones and other carbon rich rocks.) Engineered carbon mineralization processes seek to replicate and accelerate this natural process.