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Environmental Risks - Carnegie Institution for Science

'risk' danger,thatis, ,riskis interpretedmorenarrowlytomeantheprobabil ityorchanceofsufferinganadverseconsequen ce, 'floodrisk'canrefertothepresenceofa dangerofflooding-a floodhazard,ormorenarrowly,a specificprobabilitysuchasa (alOa-yearflood).Becausetheword'risk' ;thatis, 'environmentalrisk'astheprobabilityvalue ofanundesirableeventanditsconsequencesth atarisefromaspontaneousnaturaloriginorfr omahumanaction(physicaloradministrative) thatis 'impactassessment'and'riskassessment'is thatimpactassessmentsareconcernedwitheve ntsthatarereasonablycertaintooccur,while riskassessmentis 'certain'and'probabilistic' ,theyareusedtodescribetheknownimpactsofv ariousevents, (whichis inpartduetoourincreasedunderstandingofth einterrelationshipofevents)

requires an ability to compare them and make trade-offs or balancing decisions about how much of one risk to accept in relation to another. (3) The risks are connected to social benefits so that a reduction in one risk usually means a decline in the social benefits to …

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Transcription of Environmental Risks - Carnegie Institution for Science

1 'risk' danger,thatis, ,riskis interpretedmorenarrowlytomeantheprobabil ityorchanceofsufferinganadverseconsequen ce, 'floodrisk'canrefertothepresenceofa dangerofflooding-a floodhazard,ormorenarrowly,a specificprobabilitysuchasa (alOa-yearflood).Becausetheword'risk' ;thatis, 'environmentalrisk'astheprobabilityvalue ofanundesirableeventanditsconsequencesth atarisefromaspontaneousnaturaloriginorfr omahumanaction(physicaloradministrative) thatis 'impactassessment'and'riskassessment'is thatimpactassessmentsareconcernedwitheve ntsthatarereasonablycertaintooccur,while riskassessmentis 'certain'and'probabilistic' ,theyareusedtodescribetheknownimpactsofv ariousevents, (whichis inpartduetoourincreasedunderstandingofth einterrelationshipofevents)

2 , ,assessmentsbegantomakeuseofmathematical techniques, ,thetermriskassessmentcameintobeingtodif ferentiatethenewtypeofassessmentsfromthe earlier'impact' ,modeofanalysis,ormanagement, ,riskis , :(1)Therisksinvolvea , (2) ,region,orcityandthisrequiresanabilityto comparethemandmaketrade-offsorbalancingd ecisionsabouthowmuchofonerisktoacceptinr elationtoanother.(3)Therisksareconnected tosocialbenefitssothata (4)Therisksarewidespreadovertheglobeandc oncernmanycountries, (5) (6) (7) 'risk'thereforemeansa hazardordangerwithadverse, ,expressionssuchas'riskprobability'or'pr obabilityofrisk' 'riskassessment', ' Environmental '.

3 Theyarisein,oraretransmittedthrough,thea ir,water,soilorbiologicalfoodchains, ,however, newtechnology,productorchemical,whileoth ers,suchasnaturalhazards, ,suchasfloodingina ,suchasthepossibleeffectsontheearth' ,environmentalrisks,asdefinedhere, ,andthustheyrequireregulationonthepartof someauthorityabovethatofanindividualciti zen-thatis, , ,environmentalrisksexcludepersonalchoice ssuchassmoking, , ,forexample,is , , , ; ,orthoseregionswithincountries, , ,inadequatehousingandsanitationandthelik e, :contaminationwithsmallamountsofcarcinog enicindustrialeffluentsintheonecase, thereweresuchdatatheywouldnotgivea reliableindicationofprioritiesona globalscale,becauseit is knowntobemuchlowerinsomecountriesthanoth ers,it tobegainedfroma is.

4 (Munn,1973) ,photochemicaloxidantsandreactivehydroca rbonsPolycyclicaromatichydrocarbonsToxic metals,especiallymercury,leadandcadmiumH alogenatedorganiccompounds,especiallyDDT anditsmetabolites,PCB,PCT,dieldrinandsho rt-chainhalogenatedaliphaticcompoundsAsb estosPetroleumhydrocarbonsToxinsofbiolog icalorigin(fromalgae,fungi,andbacteria)N itrates,nitritesandnitrosaminesAmmoniaSe lectedindicatorsofwaterquality:biologica loxygendemand(BOD),dissolvedoxygen(DO),p H,coliformbacteriaSelectedradionuclidesA irborneallergensEutrophicators( ,nitratesandphosphates)Solublesaltsofthe alkalimetalsandthealkalineearthmetalsOth ersubstancesthathavecausedsignificantloc alenvironmentalproblemsinthepastsuchasar senic,boron,elementalphosphorus,selenium , 'prioritypollutants' (IUCN) ( ) (erosionandlossoffertility).

5 OilpollutionInadequatedomesticwatersuppl yFishstockdepletionNoiseDangerofspeciese xtinction,Fires-OvergrazingDesertificati onanddroughtVehicularairpollution0102030 405060 NumberofDevelopingCountriesReportingProb lemsN=63 DataabstractedfromJohnson,JohnsonandGour -Tanguay, ( ) reportedinalmostallcountries, ,intheeyesofnationalgovernmentsareprimar ilythoseofresourcedepletion(suchaslossof fauna,fishstockdepletion,soilerosion,ove rgrazing,deforestationandthelike),habita t(inadequatewasteandsewagedisposal,domes ticwatersupply),andpollutionrisks(airpol lution,waterpollutionbyoilandindustriala ndtoxicwastedisposal).

6 Theseareallrisksthatcanbeexacerbatedbyth edevelopmentprocessesofagriculturalexpan sion,industrialdevelopment, ,thedecisionmaker' ,especiallyasa resultoflessonsfromtheSahelianexperience ,forexample,thereisa ,thelocalresourcesaretoopoortopayforthes eimprovementsandthetaskfallstothenationa lgovernment, ,chemicalssuchaspesticides,andconsumerpr oducts, regulatorysystemwhichrequiressamplingfor qualitycontrolandtoxicity, , ,drugsandchemicalsareintroducedintocount riesthantheycanadequatelytest, ,whicharefrequentlyreplacedbynewproducts bythetimeregulatorytestshave'caughtup'. 'bestroute' is a previousvolumeinthisseriesbyKates(RiskAs sessmentofEnviron-mentalHazard:SCOPE8)ri skassessmentwasdescribedashavingthreeint errelatedcomponents.

7 Riskidentification, 'nomenclatureanduseshisworkasastartingpo intfora discussionofquestionssurroundingtheimple mentationofa ,riskidentificationisa deliberateproceduretoreview,anditishoped anticipate, thescientificdeterminationofthecharacter isticsofrisks,usuallyinasquantitativea ,spatialscale,durationandintensityofadve rseconsequencesandtheirassociatedprobabi litiesaswellasa ,monitoring,screeninganddiagnosis(Kates, 1978, )whicharediscussedinChapters2 ,andagainstbenefits, ,anyjudgementaboutsocialacceptabilitycom binesbothpoliticalandmanagerialdecisions sinceit inevitablyinvolvesa calculationofwhoislikelytobenefitandwhot osuffer,andwhatcompensation,ifany, riskhasbeenidentified,estimatedorevaluat ed(oranycombinationofthethree)therecomes apointwheresomekindofintervention(ordeli beratedecisionnottointerveneortodelayact ion) (andareperceivedtobe)butupontheparticula rpolicymaking'style' ,a greatdealofriskassessmenthasalreadytaken place, ,however, courseofdevelopmentbechosenwhichis'safee nough'?

8 Asafeenough,orlessrisky, , ,forthosesubjecttorisk, 'bestpath'fordevelopmentinvolvesnotonlyq uestionsaboutthetotalamountofriskthatis acceptableinanyonearea, ,it ,boththebenefitsandtherisksshouldbedistr ibutedina majorconcernovercancer, safetodrink,housingandnutritionthatpermi tthehealthygroWtliofindividuals,families ,andthecommunity,andthedevelopmentofnatu ralresourcesthatdoesnotresultintheirreve rsibledestructionofsoil, sometimesimpliedwhenthepopulationrisksof highandlowincomesocietiesaresetincontras t, ,countriesnowundergoingrapidindustrialde velopmentorlargescaleexpansionofcommerci alagriculture, ,themoresuccessfultheeconomicdevelopment process,themorelikelythereis tobegenerationofnewrisksatthesametimetha tunprecedentedpressuresarearisinginthemo re'traditional'riskareasofsoilerosion,de forestation, ,asrapidlydevelopingnationsaredrawnmores tronglyintothepatternofinternationaltrad eandcommodityflowtheyfindthatstandards13 andregulationsestablishedelsewhereforthe protectionoftheenvironmentandhumanhealth canhavea , , ,andtoshowhowit , notwise,however.

9 Fora nationalgovernmenttoassumethatbecausea riskhasbeenidentified,assessed,anda standardestablishedinoneormorecountries, , ,whenscientificmanpower,managementskills ,andinstitutionalcapabilityareinshortsup ply,it maybea misallocationofresourcestoinvesta largeeffortintoresearchonthetoxicityofin dustrialeffluentsortheecologicalaffectso fpesticides, ,skilledmanpower,andtime-andis itselfassociatedwiththerisksofcost, ,however, fisherywhilebuildingnewfishingboats,andf armershavelongappraisedtheriskofa droughtora pestinfestationwhileplantinga onlypartofa , ,whetherata highMinisteriallevelorasanindividualtech nician,hastocompetewithotherdemandsina nation' , , ,beforetheyare(knowingly) saferandmoreprosperousfuture.

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