Environmental Risks - Scope

1 'risk' danger,thatis, ,riskis interpretedmorenarrowlytomeantheprobabil ityorchanceofsufferinganadverseconsequen ce, 'floodrisk'canrefertothepresenceofa dangerofflooding-a floodhazard,ormorenarrowly,a specificprobabilitysuchasa (alOa-yearflood).Becausetheword'risk' ;thatis, 'environmentalrisk'astheprobabilityvalue ofanundesirableeventanditsconsequencesth atarisefromaspontaneousnaturaloriginorfr omahumanaction(physicaloradministrative) thatis 'impactassessment'and'riskassessment'is thatimpactassessmentsareconcernedwitheve ntsthatarereasonablycertaintooccur,while riskassessmentis 'certain'and'probabilistic' ,theyareusedtodescribetheknownimpactsofv ariousevents, (whichis inpartduetoourincreasedunderstandingofth einterrelationshipofevents), ,assessmentsbegantomakeuseofmathematical techniques, ,thetermriskassessmentcameintobeingtodif ferentiatethenewtypeofassessmentsfromthe earlier'impact' ,modeofanalysis,ormanagement, ,riskis.

2 (1)Therisksinvolvea , (2) ,region,orcityandthisrequiresanabilityto comparethemandmaketrade-offsorbalancingd ecisionsabouthowmuchofonerisktoacceptinr elationtoanother.(3)Therisksareconnected tosocialbenefitssothata (4)Therisksarewidespreadovertheglobeandc oncernmanycountries, (5) (6) (7) 'risk'thereforemeansa hazardordangerwithadverse, ,expressionssuchas'riskprobability'or'pr obabilityofrisk' 'riskassessment', ' Environmental '.Theyarisein,oraretransmi ttedthrough,theair,water,soilorbiologica lfoodchains, ,however, newtechnology,productorchemical,whileoth ers,suchasnaturalhazards, ,suchasfloodingina ,suchasthepossibleeffectsontheearth' ,environmentalrisks,asdefinedhere, ,andthustheyrequireregulationonthepartof someauthorityabovethatofanindividualciti zen-thatis, , ,environmentalrisksexcludepersonalchoice ssuchassmoking, , ,forexample,is.

3 ,orthoseregionswithincountries, , ,inadequatehousingandsanitationandthelik e, :contaminationwithsmallamountsofcarcinog enicindustrialeffluentsintheonecase, thereweresuchdatatheywouldnotgivea reliableindicationofprioritiesona globalscale,becauseit is knowntobemuchlowerinsomecountriesthanoth ers,it tobegainedfroma is , :(Munn,1973) ,photochemicaloxidantsandreactivehydroca rbonsPolycyclicaromatichydrocarbonsToxic metals,especiallymercury,leadandcadmiumH alogenatedorganiccompounds,especiallyDDT anditsmetabolites,PCB,PCT,dieldrinandsho rt-chainhalogenatedaliphaticcompoundsAsb estosPetroleumhydrocarbonsToxinsofbiolog icalorigin(fromalgae,fungi,andbacteria)N itrates,nitritesandnitrosaminesAmmoniaSe lectedindicatorsofwaterquality:biologica loxygendemand(BOD),dissolvedoxygen(DO),p H,coliformbacteriaSelectedradionuclidesA irborneallergensEutrophicators( ,nitratesandphosphates)Solublesaltsofthe alkalimetalsandthealkalineearthmetalsOth ersubstancesthathavecausedsignificantloc alenvironmentalproblemsinthepastsuchasar senic,boron,elementalphosphorus,selenium , 'prioritypollutants' (IUCN) ( ) (erosionandlossoffertility).

4 OilpollutionInadequatedomesticwatersuppl yFishstockdepletionNoiseDangerofspeciese xtinction,Fires-OvergrazingDesertificati onanddroughtVehicularairpollution0102030 405060 NumberofDevelopingCountriesReportingProb lemsN=63 DataabstractedfromJohnson,JohnsonandGour -Tanguay, ( ) reportedinalmostallcountries, ,intheeyesofnationalgovernmentsareprimar ilythoseofresourcedepletion(suchaslossof fauna,fishstockdepletion,soilerosion,ove rgrazing,deforestationandthelike),habita t(inadequatewasteandsewagedisposal,domes ticwatersupply),andpollutionrisks(airpol lution,waterpollutionbyoilandindustriala ndtoxicwastedisposal).Theseareallrisksth atcanbeexacerbatedbythedevelopmentproces sesofagriculturalexpansion,industrialdev elopment, ,thedecisionmaker' ,especiallyasa resultoflessonsfromtheSahelianexperience ,forexample,thereisa ,thelocalresourcesaretoopoortopayforthes eimprovementsandthetaskfallstothenationa lgovernment, ,chemicalssuchaspesticides,andconsumerpr oducts, regulatorysystemwhichrequiressamplingfor qualitycontrolandtoxicity, , ,drugsandchemicalsareintroducedintocount riesthantheycanadequatelytest, ,whicharefrequentlyreplacedbynewproducts bythetimeregulatorytestshave'caughtup'.

5 'bestroute' is a previousvolumeinthisseriesbyKates(RiskAs sessmentofEnviron-mentalHazard:SCOPE8)ri skassessmentwasdescribedashavingthreeint errelatedcomponents:riskidentification, 'nomenclatureanduseshisworkasastartingpo intfora discussionofquestionssurroundingtheimple mentationofa ,riskidentificationisa deliberateproceduretoreview,anditishoped anticipate, thescientificdeterminationofthecharacter isticsofrisks,usuallyinasquantitativea ,spatialscale,durationandintensityofadve rseconsequencesandtheirassociatedprobabi litiesaswellasa ,monitoring,screeninganddiagnosis(Kates, 1978, )whicharediscussedinChapters2 ,andagainstbenefits, ,anyjudgementaboutsocialacceptabilitycom binesbothpoliticalandmanagerialdecisions sinceit inevitablyinvolvesa calculationofwhoislikelytobenefitandwhot osuffer,andwhatcompensation,ifany, riskhasbeenidentified,estimatedorevaluat ed(oranycombinationofthethree)

6 Therecomesapointwheresomekindofintervent ion(ordeliberatedecisionnottointerveneor todelayaction) (andareperceivedtobe)butupontheparticula rpolicymaking'style' ,a greatdealofriskassessmenthasalreadytaken place, ,however, courseofdevelopmentbechosenwhichis'safee nough'?Asafeenough,orlessrisky, , ,forthosesubjecttorisk, 'bestpath'fordevelopmentinvolvesnotonlyq uestionsaboutthetotalamountofriskthatis acceptableinanyonearea, ,it ,boththebenefitsandtherisksshouldbedistr ibutedina majorconcernovercancer, safetodrink,housingandnutritionthatpermi tthehealthygroWtliofindividuals,families ,andthecommunity,andthedevelopmentofnatu ralresourcesthatdoesnotresultintheirreve rsibledestructionofsoil, sometimesimpliedwhenthepopulationrisksof highandlowincomesocietiesaresetincontras t, ,countriesnowundergoingrapidindustrialde velopmentorlargescaleexpansionofcommerci alagriculture, ,themoresuccessfultheeconomicdevelopment process,themorelikelythereis tobegenerationofnewrisksatthesametimetha tunprecedentedpressuresarearisinginthemo re'traditional'riskareasofsoilerosion,de forestation.

7 Asrapidlydevelopingnationsaredrawnmorest ronglyintothepatternofinternationaltrade andcommodityflowtheyfindthatstandards13a ndregulationsestablishedelsewhereforthep rotectionoftheenvironmentandhumanhealthc anhavea , , ,andtoshowhowit , notwise,however,fora nationalgovernmenttoassumethatbecausea riskhasbeenidentified,assessed,anda standardestablishedinoneormorecountries, , ,whenscientificmanpower,managementskills ,andinstitutionalcapabilityareinshortsup ply,it maybea misallocationofresourcestoinvesta largeeffortintoresearchonthetoxicityofin dustrialeffluentsortheecologicalaffectso fpesticides, ,skilledmanpower,andtime-andis itselfassociatedwiththerisksofcost, ,however, fisherywhilebuildingnewfishingboats,andf armershavelongappraisedtheriskofa droughtora pestinfestationwhileplantinga onlypartofa , ,whetherata highMinisteriallevelorasanindividualtech nician,hastocompetewithotherdemandsina nation' , , ,beforetheyare(knowingly) saferandmoreprosperousfuture.