Estimating Firearms Traffic Across the U.S.-Mexico Border

1 The Way of the Gun: Estimating Firearms Traffic Acrossthe BorderTopher McDougal, David A. Shirk, Robert Muggah and John H. PattersonMARCH 2013 PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCKE xecutive SummaryThe Problem Mexico is experiencing a surge in gun-related violence since 2006. Yet Mexico does not manufacture small arms, light weapons or ammunition in sizeable quantity. Moreover, Mexico has some of the most restrictive gun legislation in the world. It is assumed that a considerable proportion of weapons in Mexico are illegal, most having been trafficked from the united states ( ).

2 The volume of Firearms sold in the united states and trafficked Across the Border , however, is notoriously difficult to record. Previous attempts have involved multiplicative approximations based upon the quantity of arms confiscated at the INSTITUTE2 Estimating Firearms Traffic Across THE BORDEROur ApproachWe tackle the challenge of Estimating arms trafficking from the to Mexico differently. We apply a unique GIS-gen-erated county-level panel dataset (1993-1999 and 2010-2012) of Federal Firearms Licenses to sell small arms (FFLs), we create a demand curve for Firearms based on the distance by road from the nearest point on the Border and official Border crossing.

3 We use a time-series negative binomial model paired with a post-estimation population attributable fraction (PAF) estimator. We do so controlling for determinants of domestic demand ( , income, political leaning, population density, and spatial auto-correlation). We are able to estimate a total demand for trafficking, both in terms of Firearms and dollar sales for the Firearms FindingsOur study finds that: A significant proportion of firearm dealers are dependent on Mexican demand: (95% : - ) of FFLs during 2010-2012 depended for their economic existence on some amount of demand from the Firearms trade to stay in business.

4 This percentage has steadily risen from (95% : - ) in 1993; A sizeable and growing percentage of US Firearms sales are destined for Mexico: (between and ) of domestic arms sales are attributable to the Traffic . This percentage is up from roughly (between and ) in 1993; The volume of firearm crossing the Border is higher than previously assumed: 253,000 Firearms (between 106,700 and 426,729) were purchased annually to be trafficked over 2010-2012. This number is starkly higher than the 88,000 Firearms (between 35,597 and 152,142) trafficked in 1997-1999, during the federal Assault Weapons Ban (AWB); The value of Firearms sales destined for Mexico are significant and growing appreciably: The trade represented annual revenues of $ million (range: $ - $ million) for the Firearms industry during 2010-2012 - nearly four times higher than during 1997-1999, when the trade ran to just $ million (range: $ - $ million).

5 The and Mexican authorities are seizing a comparatively small number of Firearms at the Border : Based on seizure reports for 2009, and Mexico authorities in recent years have been seizing just (between and ) of total arms bought with the intention of trafficking them. Specifically, Mexican authorities have seized roughly of the total annual trade whilst the united states has intercepted around Given these empirical findings, we conclude that ongoing government efforts to regulate Firearms trade and trafficking Across the Border are largely ineffective.

6 Notwithstanding improvements in the efficacy of Mexican au-thorities in seizing illicit Firearms between 2008-2009, they are still meager in relation to the overall volume of weapons likely crossing the borderMCDOUGAL, SHIRK, MUGGAH, AND PATTERSON 3 The scale of the trade demonstrates that the united states is an important contributor to the global supply of Firearms in illicit markets. It also draws attention to the particular function of domestic Firearms regulation and the concomitant responsibilities of authorities. Taken together, smarter policies are required to combat Firearms trafficking, including (1) the public disclosure of disaggregated gun sales; (2) background checks geared toward identifying straw purchasers; (3) the prohibition of cash transactions in Firearms sales in Border states .

7 And (4) the creation of a Mexican database of seized Words: Firearms , trafficking, demand, North America, Classification Codes: D74, F14, F52, K14, Estimating Firearms Traffic Across THE BORDERI ntroduction1In the wake of decades-long secular declines in the national homicide rate, Mexico is suffering from an epidemic of gun violence. At many as 120,000 people have been violently killed since 2006, many of them with Firearms (Molzahn, Ro-driguez Feirrera, & Shirk, 2013, p. 13). The dynamics of violence are complex, though it is important to note that the vast majority of homicides are concentrated in just a small number of Mexico s 31 states and Federal District.

8 The majority of reported homicides are committede not with assault rifles, but rather pistols and revolvers. Many are perpetrated by hit-men connected to narco-cartels and rival gang members, or as a result of confrontations with soldiers, police and paramilitaries. What is more, most of these weapons are made in the united states . Yet curiously, an empirically robust treatment of the scale and volume of Firearms trafficking from the united states to Mexico has yet to be attempted. The Mexican authorities are patently frustrated with the relentless flow of arms and ammuniton from north of the Over the past two decades, the media and policy communities have devoted considerable attention to the issue with literally thousands of reports setting out anecdotal evidence of instances of weapons seizures, the types of military and civilian-grade arms collected, and specific trafficking routes from the US into the More recently.

9 Certain academics have drawn attention to the ways in which policies in the US - including the assault rifles ban - influence the dynamics of homicidal violence in Mexico (Chicoine, 2011; Dube, Dube, & Garc a-Ponce, 2012). And notwithstanding important efforts to trace the provenance of arms retrieved in Mexico, establishing an estimate of the total flow of arms has thus far been elusive. Most publicly recognized efforts to estimate arms flows from the united states to Mexico have tended to focus on the quantity of arms confiscated at the Border . This of course begs the question of what fraction of the total they repre-sent.

10 Our team tackles the problem differently. Using a unique GIS-generated county-level panel dataset (1993-1999 and 2010-2012) of Federal Firearms Licenses to sell small arms (FFLs), we create a demand curve for Firearms based on the distance by road from the nearest point on the Border and official Border crossing, and using a time-series negative binomial model paired with a post-estimation population attributable fraction (PAF) estimator. We do so controlling for determinants of domestic demand ( , income, political leaning, population density, and spatial auto-correlation).