Feasibility Study of power supply upgrading in …

1 Study on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries in FY2015 Feasibility Study of power supply upgrading in North West of Java Island Final Report February, 2016 Prepared for: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Prepared by: KPMG AZSA LLC Tokyo Electric power Services Co., Ltd. Reproduction prohibited 1 Contents Chapter1. Summary .. 1-1 Needs and Background of the Project .. 1-1 Outline of the Project .. 1-1 Required transmitting capacity .. 1-1 Selection of the method to upgrade the transmission capacity .. 1-1 Selection of the type of HTLS.

2 1-3 Re-conductoring Work .. 1-4 Total Project Cost .. 1-4 Content and Result of Economical Evaluation .. 1-5 Content and Result of Financial Evaluation .. 1-6 Comparison between Reconductoring and New Transmission Line .. 1-6 Environmental and Social Practicability .. 1-6 Project Implementation Schedule .. 1-7 Advantages of Japanese Enterprises in Technologies .. 1-7 Financing Options for the Project .. 1-7 A Concrete Schedule and a Risk of Realization .. 1-8 Project Implementation Map of West Jawa .. 1-8 Chapter2. Objective of the Study , Content and Methodology .. 2-1 Study Objective.

3 2-1 Study Contents .. 2-1 Details of Study contents .. 2-3 Implementation Schedule of the Study .. 2-5 Chapter3. Background of the Study and Review of the Previous Study .. 3-1 Outline of the Study area .. 3-1 Overall of Indonesian economic situation .. 3-1 The economic situation of Java northwestern area .. 3-3 Demand .. 3-5 Demand record .. 3-5 Demand forecast .. 3-5 power generation development plan .. 3-7 Transmission line projects in RUPTL 2015-2024 .. 3-9 Review of the previous report .. 3-11 Necessity Study in the previous report in 2008 .. 3-11 Chapter4. System Analysis.

4 4-1 Conducted survey .. 4-1 Analysis condition .. 4-1 2 Target year .. 4-1 Latest transmission augmentation plans in the northwestern region of Jawa-Bali system .. 4-3 Demand assumptions .. 4-7 Loading conditions of generators .. 4-7 Allowable voltage range .. 4-9 Transmission line capacity .. 4-9 Other conditions for the system analyses .. 4-9 power flow analyses .. 4-10 Result of power flow analyses under the normal (N-0) conditions before reconductoring .. 4-10 Result of power flow analyses under the N-1 conditions .. 4-11 Necessary capacity of reconductored transmission lines.

5 4-13 Fault current analyses .. 4-13 Conditions for the fault current analyses .. 4-13 Result of fault current analysis .. 4-13 Overview of the rsult of fault current analysis .. 4-16 Measures against fault current problems .. 4-17 Stability analyses .. 4-29 Recommendations .. 4-35 Chapter5. Technical Feasibility of the Project .. 5-1 Scope of the Project .. 5-1 Transmission Line Project .. 5-1 Selection of the Method to Upgrade the Transmission Capacity .. 5-1 Selection of the Type of HTLS .. 5-6 Evaluation of transmission losses .. 5-11 Re-conductoring Work to HTLS .. 5-12 Re-conductoring Costs.

6 5-19 Construction Schedule .. 5-20 Points to be Considered for Stringing Work .. 5-21 Substation Project .. 5-25 Overview of Existing 500 kV Substations .. 5-25 Adaptation and Replacement Works for Substation Equipment .. 5-34 Substation Project Costs .. 5-36 Total Project Costs .. 5-36 Chapter6. Environment and Social Practicability .. 6-1 Environmental and Social Impact of the Project .. 6-1 Social resettlement .. 6-1 Electric and Magnetic Field Intensities .. 6-1 3 Corona Noise .. 6-2 Radio Noise .. 6-2 Review according to the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations.

7 6-2 Assessment of Environmental Checklist under JICA Guidelines .. 6-2 Project classification according to JICA s Guidelines .. 6-8 Host country s environmental regulations and standards .. 6-8 Outli ne of Environment-Related Laws and Regulatio ns of Host Country .. 6-8 Details of Environmental Impact Assessment of the Host Country required for the Project .. 6-12 Chapter7. Financial and Economic Feasibility .. 7-1 Capital Costs of Project .. 7-1 Construction Process and Implementation Period .. 7-1 Capital Costs and Assumptions .. 7-1 Economic Analysis .. 7-4 General Approach and Methodology.

8 7-4 Economic Benefit .. 7-5 Economic Cost .. 7-6 Project Life and Operati on Period .. 7-7 Result of economic evaluation .. 7-7 Sensitivity analysis of economic results .. 7-10 Financial Analysis .. 7-11 General Approach and Methodology .. 7-11 Financial Benefit .. 7-11 Financial Cost .. 7-13 Project Life and Operation Period .. 7-14 Results of Financial Evaluation .. 7-14 Sensitivity Analysis from a Financial 7-16 Conclusion of Financial and Economic Analysis .. 7-16 Economic Analysis .. 7-16 Financial Analysis .. 7-16 Comparison between reconductoring and new transmission line.

9 7-16 Chapter8. Project Implementation Schedule .. 8-1 Entire Schedule .. 8-1 The schedule to the EPC agreement .. 8-1 Construction schedule .. 8-1 Chapter9. Advantages of Japanese Enterprises in Technologies and Financing Options for the Project9-1 Comprehensive Advantage of Japanese Enterprises in Technologies .. 9-1 4 International Competition and Possibility to obtain this Contract by Japanese Entities .. 9-1 Possible Materials Supplied from Japan and their Relevant Cost .. 9-1 Necessary Countermeasure to Promote securing of the Contract by Japanese Entities .. 9-1 Financing Options for the Project.

10 9-2 Overview of Transmission Line Financing in other countries .. 9-2 Overview of Financing in the Indonesian power Sector .. 9-2 Overview of Financing at PLN .. 9-7 Use of Japanese ODA Loan Requirements in the Proposed Project .. 9-7 Implementation Capability of Relevant Agencies of Indonesia .. 9-8 Evaluation of Implementation Capability of the Relevant Agencies of Indonesia .. 9-11 PLN s Financial Conditions .. 9-13 Current Situation for the Japanese ODA Loan .. 9-15 Implementation Plan for Japanese ODA Loan .. 9-17 (Appendix) Workshop 5 A list of abbreviations Abbreviation Official name AC Alternate Current ACSR Aluminum Conductor Steel Reinforced BT Bus Tie cct circuit CB Circuit Breaker CFCC Carbon Fiber Composite Cables COD Commercial Operation Date CT Current Transformer DC Direct Current DIY Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (Special Region of Yogyakarta )