Global Peace Index 2021

1 Global Peace Index 2021 Overview & key findingsThe Institute for Economics and Peace is an independent, not-for-profit think tank dedicated to building a greater understanding of the key drivers of Peace , as well as identifying the economic benefits that increased peacefulness can for Economics & PeaceInstitute for Economics and PeaceResearch used extensively by organisations, including the OECD, Commonwealth Secretariat, World Bank and the United Nations Work is included in 1,000s of university coursesOver 500,000 downloads of IEP reports in the last 12 months24 BNMEDIA REACH152 COUNTRY AUDIENCE10 PUBLISHED REPORTS6000 BOOK VISITORSI nstitute for Economics & PeaceOur international offices The HagueBrusselsNew YorkMexico CityHarare Sydney Head OfficeInstitute for Economics & PeaceThe Global Peace world s population covered15thyearNow in itsRanks163countriesUsing23 Indicators weighed on a 1-5 scaleDeveloped by the Institute for Economics and PeaceGuided and overseen by a panel of International ExpertsIncluding: intensity of organized internal conflicts, relations with neighbouring countries and number of deaths from conflict6measures of ongoing domestic and international conflictIncluding.

2 Number of refugees and IDPs, impact of terrorism, homicide and incarceration rates10measures of societal safety and securityIncluding: military expenditure, number of armed service personnel, ease of access to small weapons7measures of militarisationThe Global Peace Index Global Peac Index IndicatorsInstitute for Economics & Peace2021 key highlights73countries deteriorated87countries became more peacefulThe average level of Global country peacefulness has deteriorated by is the ninth deterioration in the last 13 primarily driven by changes in: Militarization Military expenditure Safety and Security Improvements were driven by changes in: Ongoingconflict Internal conflict Terrorismimpact Institute for Economics & Peace2021 highlightsIndicators with the largest deterorations in 2021 GPI Violent demonstrations 3 times more countries fell as improved Political instability twice as many countries fell as improved Militarization 97 countries deterioratedIndicators with the largest improvements in the 2021 GPI Deaths from internal conflict Number and intensity of internal conflicts Deaths from terrorism 6thconsecutive year of improvementsInstitute for Economics & Peace2021 highlights continuedIceland is the most peaceful country in the worldUkraine and Iraq had the largest improvementMiddle East and North Africa had the largest regional.

3 It remains the least peaceful regionEurope remains the most peaceful region, despite a deterioration in political instability, mainly because of improvements in terrorismInstitute for Economics & Peace2021 highlights -continuedAfghanistan remains the world s least peaceful nation. However, it recorded a small increase in peacefulnessNorth America had the largest regional deterioration, owing toincreases in violent demonstrationsBurkina Faso and Belarus recorded the largest deteriorationsSix of the nine GPI regions recorded deteriorationsInstitute for Economics & Peace10 most peaceful countriesDENMARKRank change: 23 NEW ZEALANDRank change: 12 SWITZERLANDRank change: 27 IRELANDRank change: 38 CANADARank change: 310 CZECH REPUBLICRank change: 19 AUSTRIARank change: 26 SLOVENIARank change: 55 PORTUGALRank change: 24 ICELANDRank change:1 Institute for Economics & Peace10 least peaceful countriesAFGHANISTANRank change: 163 SOUTH SUDANRank change: 160 RUSSIARank change: 154 LIBYARank change.

4 1156 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGORank change: 1157 CENTRAL AFRICA REPUBLICRank change: 1155 SOMALIARank change: 1158 IRAQRank change: 2159 SYRIARank change: 1161 YEMENRank change: 3162 COVID-19 & for Economics & PeaceImpact of COVID-19 on PeacefulnessLong-term impact of the pandemic on homicide, violent crime, suicide is unrest increased considerably after an initial drop. There was a ten per cent increase in violent demonstrations in 2020 While levels of violence fell in the early stages of the pandemic, most forms of violence returned to pre-COVID levelsPolitical instability deteriorated in 46 countries. COVID-19 exacerbated existing tensions in many countriesIf poor economic conditions persist, likelihood of future civil unrest will increaseThere were 5,000 COVID related violent incidents in 2020 Institute for Economics & PeaceCOVID-19 related violent incidents, January 2020 to April 2021 There were over 5,000 pandemic-related incidents during this period that involvedsome form of for Economics & PeaceCOVID-19 and economic recoveryCountries with higher levels of Positive Peace are better placed to recover quicker from the pandemicEconomic recovery will be the key factor in whether civil unrest continues to growThe Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Slovenia.

5 And Switzerland are best placed for a post-COVID-19 recoveryOECD Countries Countries with high Positive Peace achieved unemployment rates of under 7% in 2020 compared to rates of up to 23% in low Positive Peace countries Trends for Economics & Peacecountries became less peaceful75countries became more peacefulPeace 2008 Improvements and deteriorations, 2008-202186 Institute for Economics & PeacePeace since 2008 Peacefulness has declined year on year for nine of the last 13 SCOREOVERALL SCORE TRENDLessPeaceful -> <-More % CHANGEI nstitute for Economics & PeaceRising inequality in Global PeaceThe gap between the least and most peaceful countries continues to PeacefulLeast IN GPI SCORE (2008 = 1)<-More PeacefulLessPeaceful ->Institute for Economics & PeaceTrends in key Safety and Security indicatorsViolent Demonstrations now at their highest level since the beginning of the indexOver 80 million people have now been forcibly displaced by violenceThe average Global homicide rate continues to 0820 1020 1220 1420 1620 1820 20 AVERAGE SCOREV iolent Demonstrations - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 9020 0820 1020 1220 1420 1620 1820 20 MILLIONS OF PEOPLEF orcibly Displaced 0820 1020 1220 1420 1620 1820 20 HOMICIDE RATEH omicide RateInstitute for Economics & PeaceTrends in key Ongoing Conflict indicatorsBattle Deaths continue to fall after peaking in 2014 Total conflicts fell in the past two years.

6 But are 88% higher than 2010 The average intensity of internal conflict is still rising020,00040,00060,00080,000100,00012 0,000140,000160,000200720092011201320152 0172019 NUMBER OF DEATHSB attle Deaths02040608010012014016018020 0720 0920 1120 1320 1520 1720 19 ACTIVE CONFLICTST otal INTENSITYI ntensity of Internal ConflictInstitute for Economics & PeaceTrends in key Militarisation indicatorsThe fall in the size of armed forces now appears to be levelling offDespite high spending by Global superpowers, average military expenditure has declinedWeapons imports and exports have had a moderate but sustained increase34036038040042044046048020 0820 1020 1220 1420 1620 1820 20 RATE PER 100,000 PEOPLEA rmed Forces 0820 1020 1220 1420 1620 1820 20% OF GDPM ilitary SCOREW eapons ImportsThe EconomicValue of for Economics & PeaceWhich is equivalent to total world GDP OR $1942per personThe economic impact of violence 2020$ TRILLIONC ould be directed to other economic activitiesIf the world decreased violence by 10%.

7 $ reduction is equivalent to size of Switzerland, Denmark and Ireland s economiesPeace and Perceptions of for Economics & PeaceGlobal perceptions of safety & risk 60%75%5%50%Risks to safety50% of people in Afghanistan, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico and the Dominican Republic report violence as the greatest risk to safety in their daily lives 60% of people globally are worried about sustaining serious harm from violent crimeFear of violent crime75% of people feel as safe or more safe than 5 years ago Feeling safe5% more women fear violence than men globally Male & femaleThe five countries with the largest experience of violence are in sub-Saharan IEP/ Lloyds Register Foundation World Risk Poll Institute for Economics & PeaceThe fear of violence is highest in South America and Southern Africa.

8 Proportion of people who cite crime, violence or terrorism as their greatest threat to safety Institute for Economics & PeaceViolence was the second most cited risk globallyWhat is the greatest risk to your safety?0%5%10%15%20%Drugs, alcohol, or smokingFood poisoningPolitics/political situation/corruptionOther transport-related accidents/injuriesWork-related accidentsHousehold accidents/injuriesClimate change or extreme weatherEconomy-relatedFinancialOtherDon' t knowHealth issueCrime, violence or terrorismRoad-related accidentsPROPORTION OF RESPONDENTSS ource IEP/ Lloyds Register Foundation World Risk Poll Institute for Economics & PeaceOnly 25% of people feel that the world was less safe in 2019 compared to 2014 Feelings of safety over time0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Don't knowLess safeAbout as safeMore safePROPORTION OF RESPONDENTSS ource IEP/ Lloyds Register Foundation World Risk Poll Institute for Economics & PeaceExperience and fear of violence Top 5 and Bottom 5 AfricaNamibiaEXPERIENCE OF VIOLENCE% who have experienced violence in the past two AfricaBrazilFEAR OF VIOLENCE% who are very worried about violenceSource IEP/ Lloyds Register World Foundation Risk Poll Institute for Economics & PeaceFeelings

9 Of safety & risk Top 5 and Bottom 5 KongLebanonFEELINGS OF SAFETY% who feel less safe than five years RepublicMexicoSouth AfricaBrazilAfghanistanGREATEST RISK% who feel violence is the greatest risk to safetySource IEP/ Lloyds Register Foundation World Risk Poll Institute for Economics & PeacePerceptions of Risk by Region0%20%40%60%80%100%Russia and EurasiaNorth AmericaEuropeAsia-PacificSouth AsiaMENAC entral Americasub-Saharan AfricaSouth AmericaFear of ViolenceUnclearNot worriedSomewhat worriedVery worried0%20%40%60%80%100%Asia-PacificRus sia and EurasiaNorth AmericaEuropeMENAS outh Asiasub-Saharan AfricaCentral AmericaSouth AmericaFeelings of SafetyUnclearMore safeAbout as safeLess safe0%10%20%30%40%50%Russia and EurasiaAsia-PacificEuropeNorth AmericaSouth AsiaMENAS outh AmericaCentral Americasub-Saharan AfricaExperience of Violence0%10%20%30%40%50%Russia and EurasiaAsia-PacificNorth AmericaEuropeMENAS outh Asiasub-Saharan AfricaCentral AmericaSouth AmericaViolence as Greatest RiskInstitute for Economics & PeacePredicting Changes in Peacefulness90 per cent of countries with Positive Peace deficits of more than 50 places in 2009 recorded substantial deteriorations by 2019 Countries with a Positive Peace deficit are more likely to have falls in peacefulness in future Of the ten countries with the largest deteriorations in peacefulness between 2009 and 2019.

10 Seven had large Positive Peace deficits in 2009 The gap between Positive Peace and Negative Peace is a strong predictor of future changes in peacefulnessHowever, they do need a shock to unsettle their current level of peaceEquatorial Guinea, Sierra Leone, Laos, Timor-Leste, Malawi and Liberia have the largest Positive Peace Deficits in 2020 Institut