HIRA Methodology Guidelines 2019

1 hazard identification and risk Assessment Program Methodology Guidelines 2019 Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management Methodology Guidelines 2019 Page 2 of 43 Contents Version Control .. 4 Version .. 4 Publication of New Versions .. 4 Revision List .. 5 Approval .. 6 Expert Advisers and Reviewers .. 7 Author .. 7 Special Thanks .. 7 Introduction .. 8 Purpose .. 8 What is Risk? .. 9 Addressing Risk .. 10 About Data .. 11 HIRA Process Overview .. 12 Key Actions for Each HIRA 13 Step One: Plan .. 14 Buy-In .. 15 The Community Planning Team .. 15 Supporting Teams .. 15 Advisory Group, Key Partners and Stakeholders .. 16 Project Charter .. 16 Ethical Practice .. 17 Approve the Plan .. 17 Step Two: Identify hazards .. 18 What is a Hazard? .. 19 Identify hazards in your community .. 20 Develop Hazard Profiles .. 21 Methodology Guidelines 2019 Page 3 of 43 Step Three: Build Community Knowledge.

2 22 Define & Map the Community .. 23 Community assets .. 23 The Importance of Community Context .. 24 Use data to enhance your community profile .. 24 Critical Infrastructure .. 25 Applying Community Knowledge .. 26 Developing Scenarios .. 28 Overlapping Ontario Programs .. 29 Step Four: Assess Risk .. 30 Risk Assessment Overview .. 31 Likelihood .. 31 Consequence .. 31 Scoring Consequence & Likelihood .. 32 Likelihood Overview .. 33 Consequence Overview .. 34 Consequence Categories .. 35 Consequence Overview Chart .. 36 Consequence Overview Chart (continued) .. 37 Resilience and Risk .. 38 Total Scores .. 38 Step Five: Report & Follow-Up .. 39 Results .. 40 Documentation .. 40 Communication .. 40 Connected Risk .. 41 Risk Treatment Options .. 41 Approval and Revision Schedule .. 42 Revision Log .. 42 Methodology Guidelines 2019 Page 4 of 43 Version Control Version This is version of the HIRA Methodology Guidelines (issue 1, no revisions).

3 Publication of New Versions The Ontario hazard identification and risk Assessment Guidelines will be published every 5 years. The formal update process begins 1-2 years prior to each publication, to allow time for comprehensive engagement and review of content. A new version is published at the conclusion of this process. Methodology Guidelines 2019 Page 5 of 43 Revision List Revisions to the current version can occur at any time. The version number should be updated with each revision, by changing the number after the decimal point, and recorded using the table below: Revision Number ( ) Description of Change Date of Revision Revision Made By (Name) Approved By (Name) original version 2019-05-01 Sarah Thompson Jon Pegg, Mario Di Tommaso Methodology Guidelines 2019 Page 6 of 43 Approval Methodology Guidelines 2019 Page 7 of 43 Expert Advisers and Reviewers Cody Anderson, Public Safety Canada David Etkin, York University Matthew Godsoe, Public Safety Canada Melanie Goodchild, The Waterloo Institute for Social Innovation and Resilience Trina Gorr, City of Ottawa Tara Hamilton, Ontario Office of the Fire Marshal Daryl Mahoney, Alberta Emergency Management Agency Adam McAllister, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Caroline Nolan, The Ottawa Hospital Laurie Pearce, Royal Roads University Elizabeth Scambler, Emergency Management British Columbia Jennifer Smysnuik, City of Toronto Lori Thompson.

4 Alberta Emergency Management Agency Lauren Perry, Emergency Management Coordinator, City of Sault Ste. Marie Thank you to all who attended regional engagement sessions in 2018 for their contributions to the content of this guide, and to host communities for their hospitality: The Town of Fort Frances The City of Kingston and Frontenac County The City of Mississauga The City of Woodstock The City of Sudbury Author Sarah Thompson, Program Development Officer - HIRA, Emergency Management Special Thanks Special thanks to the many representatives of municipal, regional, Indigenous, and unincorporated communities across the province, for their engagement with and commitment to this project. Emergency Management Ontario acknowledges its presence on lands traditionally occupied by Indigenous Peoples. You can search the specific treaty area for addresses across Ontario on the digital map of Ontario treaties and reserves: Methodology Guidelines 2019 Page 8 of 43 Introduction HIRA Guidelines 2019 PurposeThe purpose of HIRA is to assess the potential risk of hazards with the capacity to cause a disaster.

5 This helps set priorities for prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. This also helps local government, city council, land use planners, residents, and emergency management professionals take action to reduce future losses. Risk assessments help to establish a focus for emergency management programs, allocate resources, and plan appropriately. The HIRA allows for the assessment of risk based on hazards , exposure, vulnerability, capacity and resilience. Core questions: What risks can lead to a disaster? What impacts could occur over a range of scenarios? Are there scenarios in which the level of risk is unacceptable or unmanageable? What are the impacts, relative to each hazard? What existing measures prevent or mitigate the risk? This hazard identification and risk Assessment (HIRA) guidebook provides a process you can use to answer these core questions.

6 It also includes a series of resources to help you. The Guideline uses an whole-of-society approach to risk. This approach recognizes the need for coordinated action at all levels, across government, sectors and communities. A HIRA can: Help you to understand and prepare for hazards Save time and resources by identifying potential scenarios Help create emergency plans, exercises and training based on events of significance Help your program become proactive rather than reactive The guidebook is not intended to be used to predict which hazard will cause the next emergency. The Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management continues to engage in a collaborative process across ministries to develop risk assessment Methodology , to ensure consistency between legislative requirements. Introduction HIRA Guidelines 2019 Methodology Guidelines 2019 Page 9 of 43 What is Risk?

7 Risk is a term used to describe the potential to lose (or gain) something of value, when posed with a situation involving danger. Most definitions of risk have two core things in common: Peoples interaction with danger The degree of potential harm Everyday life includes the risk of loss, but also for positive opportunities. In fact the root word for risk, Riscare is thought to be the origin of the phrase Nothing ventured, nothing gained . This origin provides insight into risk itself. It is viewed as being, in part, socially constructed. Society interacts with uncertainty based upon the nature of its culture, religion, education and many other qualitative factors. These complex systems are often the focus of Emergency Management. This guideline uses this holistic perspective of risk. This includes notions of hazard likelihood and consequence. Measurement of risk can include objective and measurable factors, such as how often tornadoes occur.

8 Other measurements are subjective and difficult to measure, such as the degree to which psychological trauma occurs. There can even be fundamental differences in perspective about whether or not (or the degree to which), something is harmful. An example of this is the destruction of the environment, which is valued very differently by environmentalists and real estate developers. Ultimately, how risk is measured is determined by values and assumptions that should be transparent. There is no one correct way to express risk. However, a good risk analysis, will be extremely clear about: Its purpose Why particular metrics were chosen, and Limitations of the analysis Introduction HIRA Guidelines 2019 Methodology Guidelines 2019 Page 10 of 43 Addressing Risk Risk can be addressed in six ways, outlined below. The decision to adopt any of these strategies depends on the values of decision-makers and the community, as well as the results of risk assessment.

9 Accept: An activity is determined to be acceptable, within existing social, economic, political, cultural, technical and environmental conditions or constraints. Example: It may be considered unacceptable that schools will collapse in a moderate earthquake. However, it is decided by senior officials that infrastructure improvements will be spread out over the next 10 years. Risk is accepted within that time period. Avoid: Choose not to take on an activity at all, evading all : A decision not to build within a flood extent, avoids the risk of riverine flooding. Adapt: Modify existing behaviour to adapt to known risks . Example: Efforts to develop drought-tolerant crops to partially adapt to the risk of warming climate conditions. Reduce: Take mitigation actions that remove some or all of the risk. Example: The introduction or improvement of measures to reduce risk include physical works, as well as regulations, policies, control systems and other means.

10 Transfer: Move all or part of the risk to a third party. Example: Insurance programs, or hiring a third party, transfer risk. Share: Distribute the risk among multiple organizations or individuals. Example: The responsibility for risk reduction measures is shared between municipalities, response agencies, private partners, non-profit organizations, residents or others. This could take the form of a Memorandum of Understanding. Risk Treatment and comprehensive Emergency Management The treatment informs the creation of specific prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery plans. In the first example above, the infrastructure improvement plan is a mitigation strategy. This plan was created based on the decision to accept the risk. Introduction HIRA Guidelines 2019 Methodology Guidelines 2019 Page 11 of 43 About Data HIRA is not all about the math! Statistics related to past events or number rankings are only one part of a bigger picture.