How Do Exchange Rates Affect Import Prices? Recent ...

1 How Do Exchange Rates Affect Import Prices? Recent Economic Literature and Data AnalysisNo. ID-21 OFFICE OF INDUSTRIES WORKING INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSIONC athy L. JabaraOffice of International Trade CommissionMay 2009 Cathy Jabara is a Senior Economist with the Office of Industries of the International Trade of Industries working papers are the result of the ongoing professional research of USITC Staff andare solely meant to represent the opinions and professional research of individual authors. These papers arenot meant to represent in any way the views of the International Trade Commission or any of itsindividual Commissioners. Working papers are circulated to promote the active Exchange of ideas betweenUSITC Staff and recognized experts outside the USITC, and to promote professional development of Officestaff by encouraging outside professional critique of staff research. Address correspondence to:Office of Industries International Trade CommissionWashington, DC 20436 USAHow Do Exchange Rates Affect Import Prices?

2 Recent Economic Literature and Data AnalysisCathy L. JabaraMay 2009 Office of International Trade Commission500 E Street SWWashington, DC 20436 Judith Dean and Jose Signoret of the Office of Economics provided valuable commentsincorporated into the paper. The author thanks those in attendance at a seminar at the Trade Commission in March 2009 where valuable comments were received. Theviews and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views ofthe International Trade Commission or any of its DO Exchange Rates Affect Import PRICES? Recent ECONOMIC LITERATURE AND DATA ANALYSISC athy L. Jabara*May 2009 Office of International Trade Commission500 E Street SWWashington, DC 20436 ABSTRACTAn important issue for industry competitiveness is the extent to which Exchange rate changes Affect the pricesof imported goods. In theory, a weaker dollar should raise the cost of foreign goods for consumers andreduce the demand for imports, while boosting foreign demand for goods.

3 However, betweenFebruary 2002 and July 2008, the dollar fell by almost 35 percent against a broad index of foreign currencies,while the prices of Import commodities showed much less change. This paper reviews some of the recenteconomic literature as to why Import prices change so little relative to a change in the value of the discussed include pricing-to-market, currency invoicing, and cross-border production. Usingdata for 1999 to 2008, the paper estimates Exchange rate pass-through to Import prices for all importsexcluding oil, and consumer goods, and for imports from Japan, the European Union (EU), Canada, and theNIEs (Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, and Hong Kong). The Exchange -rate pass-through estimates werefound to be low ( for all imports excluding oil and for consumer goods). The highest estimates ofbilateral Exchange -rate pass-through were for imports from Canada (.33) and the EU (.24), and the lowest forimports from Japan (.)

4 12) and the NIEs ( ). An Exchange -rate pass-through was also estimated for prices from China for a small number of observations from mid-2005 to 2008, the period when theyuan fluctuated against the dollar. The estimated Exchange -rate pass-through of must be taken with adegree of caution, due to the small sample (14 observations). *The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Trade Commission or any of its Commissioners. Contact information: Phone 1-202-205-3309and e-mail 1 DOL, BLS Import price indexes. (accessed January, 2009).2 IntroductionBetween February 2002 and July 2008, the dollar fell by almost 35 percent against a broad indexof foreign currencies, while the prices of Import commodities showed much less, or very little change. For example, the Department of Labor (DOL), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) price index for allimports excluding petroleum rose by 20 percent, while the price index for imported consumer goods roseby a mere 6 Economists have generally found that prices of imported goods do not usuallyrespond with one-to-one to changes in the Exchange rate.

5 This paper will explore some of the reasons whysome Import prices change so little relative to a change in the value of the dollar. In theory, a weaker dollar should raise the cost of foreign goods for consumers, therebyreducing demand for imports, while boosting foreign demand for goods by making exportsmore price-competitive abroad. Thus, a weaker dollar is usually considered to be a key mechanism forincreasing the international competitiveness of producers. However, economic research suggests thatthe link between the Exchange rate and the prices of imported goods is more complex, with fluctuationsaffecting Import prices to varying degrees, depending on the industry. These studies show that theeffect of an Exchange rate change depends on firms price-setting behavior. This paper examines Recent literature and data on the effects of Exchange Rates on traded goods inthe United States. This is an important topic for industry analysis because of the importance offluctuations in Exchange Rates for industry competitiveness.

6 Moreover, with the value of the dollarcurrently reversing course and appreciating against a number of currencies, information on how exchangerate changes Affect production and prices is important to understand future impacts of Exchange rateson trade. 2 The price indices examined usually exclude the price of oil, due to its volatility. Some studies also exclude semiconductorsand computers, arguing that price determination is different for these industries relative to other consumer goods. 3 Mishkin (2008). Mishkin s analysis is based on the work of Marazzi, Sheets, and Vigfusson (2005) and Marazzi andSheets (2007). On the other hand, Hellerstein, Daly, and Marsh (2006) argue that, although declining, the change has not beenvery significant. 4 Ihrig, Marazzi and Rothenberg (2006) estimated an Exchange -rate pass-through coefficient for the G-7 countries (Japan,United States, Italy, Germany, France, United Kingdom, and Canada) of for the period from 1990-2004.

7 5 These are the three main explanations cited by Mishkin (2008). See also Campa and Goldberg (2002) and Marazzi andSheets (2007).3 Exchange rate studies usually focus on the rate of Exchange -rate pass-through-- the impact of achange in the Exchange rate on prices in the importing country. Pass-through is considered complete when the response is one-for-one , when a 1 percent change in the Exchange rate results in a 1 percentchange in the Import price. A number of Exchange -rate pass-through studies have shown that pass-through to Import prices2 is quite low, and some argue that it has declined in Recent Inaddition, pass-through to Import prices in many major trading partners has also been estimated to be less than one, even if somewhat higher than in the United There are three prominent explanations of why Exchange -rate pass-through might be low:5(1) exporters price to market by lowering or raising their profit margins to offset the effects of theexchange rate change; (2) exporters set their prices in the local currency of the importing country andthese prices do not fluctuate with the Exchange rate, at least in the short run; and (3) cross-borderproduction which leads to lower pass-through when production costs are denominated in differentcurrencies.

8 In addition, Marazzi and Sheets (2007)6 found a decrease in Exchange rate pass-through forproduct markets in which Chinese exports gained market share, at least through 2004, when the Chineseyuan was pegged to the dollar. This paper is organized as follows. First, the economic factors determining the extent ofexchange-rate pass-through, such as pricing-to-market, currency invoicing, and cross-border trade, areexamined in greater detail. The next section reviews econometric estimates of Exchange -rate pass-throughfrom Recent economic studies. The last section estimates Exchange -rate pass-through using Recent datafrom 1999 to 2008 for aggregate imports (imports excluding oil and consumer goods) and for from various trading partners Canada, the European Union (EU), Japan, the NewlyIndustrializing Economies (NIEs Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea). The calculatedestimates of Exchange -rate pass-through are low, well less than 1, are consistent with other estimatesobtained from the Explanation of Exchange -Rate Pass-ThroughAccording to standard economic trade theory, if we ignore transport and other border costs, thedollar price of imports equals the foreign currency export prices converted into dollars (E = $/foreigncurrency) for sale in the market as shown in equation 1 below:(1) Ptm = EtPtx where Ptm is the domestic price in the importing country;Et is the nominal Exchange rate (domestic currency per unit of foreign Exchange ); andPtx is the foreign price (in units of foreign currency).

9 As denoted above, a depreciation of the dollar (increase in Et) must result in a rise in Import prices ofthe same magnitude, unless there is a decline in the prices foreign producers receive, and vice versa. The impact of an Exchange rate change on Import prices is usually defined as the percent changein the local currency Import price (Ptm) resulting from a one percent change in the Exchange rate betweenthe exporting and importing country (Et). For example, if the dollar falls by 10 percent, equation (1)implies that the Import price in the United States in dollars should increase by 10 percent a pass-throughequal to one. If this does not occur, equation (1) suggests that foreign producers must be absorbing someof the decline in the value of the dollar. This is labeled as incomplete pass-through of Exchange Rates toimport prices. For example, exporters could lower their export prices by 5 percent. This means thatimport prices will increase by 5 percent an Exchange rate pass-through of 7 See, for example, Campa and Goldberg (2002).

10 Pricing-to-market requires differentiated goods so that exporters have amarkup over cost to vary with the Exchange rate pass-through studies consider the extent to which Exchange rate movements arepass-through into trade goods prices, versus absorbed in producer profit margins or mark ups. Why wouldexporters absorb Exchange rate changes in their profit margins? Some of the reasons are discussed below. Pricing-to-MarketKrugman (1987) was one of the first economists to suggest that Exchange rate changes could be passed through to traded goods prices, or absorbed in producer profit margins or markups (pricing-to-market). Krugman suggested that following a depreciation of an importer s currency, which wouldotherwise raise the cost of imported goods, the foreign exporter might cuts his domestic currency exportprice to stabilize the price in the importing country s market. This type of strategy could be a temporaryone, or a more long-term effort to maintain market analysis of pricing-to-market considers the following relationships among prices, exchangerates, and costs for differentiated products characterized by monopolistic competition:7 (2) Ptm = EtPtx = EtMkupxCtxand(3) Mkuptx = Ptx/Ctxwhere (Ctx) is the exporters marginal cost, andMkuptx is the exporter s markup over marginal markup rate could be 2, for example, giving the exporter a profit of 200 percent over marginal cost.