Hydrogen-powered aviation

1 Hydrogen-powered aviation A fact-based study of hydrogen technology, economics, and climate impact by 2050. May 2020. This document reflects the results of a fact-based study prepared by McKinsey & Company for the Clean Sky 2 JU and Fuel Cells and Hydrogen 2 JU (hereafter the Joint Undertakings). This study was jointly procured by the Clean Sky 2 JU and FCH 2 JU and received financial support under the H2020 framework Programme. The following 24 companies and organizations provided inputs and contributed to this study: Airbus, Air Liquide, ArianeGroup, Ballard Unmanned Systems, Bauhaus Luftfahrt , Boeing, BP International Limited, Cranfield University, Equinor ASA, easyJet Airline Company Ltd, German Aerospace Center (DLR), GKN Aerospace Services Limited, Groupe ADP, Hydrogenics (now part of Cummins Inc.)

2 , Intelligent Energy, Liege Airport, Linde Technology, Plug Power, PowerCell Sweden AB, Safran Group, Schiphol Group, Shell International Petroleum Company, TU Delft, and ZeroAvia. This independent study was drawn up with inputs and contributions from the stakeholders listed above based on the proposed methodology of analysis. The information and conclusions contained in this document represent their collective view for the sake of the analysis performed under the study and not that of individual companies or organisations. Any information and conclu- sions provided in this document are for reference purposes only and are not intended, nor should they be used as a substitute for professional advice or judgement with respect to certain circumstances.

3 None of the stakeholders listed above guarantees the adequacy, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the document's contents. Said stakeholders therefore disclaim any and all warranties and representations as to said contents, express or implied, including any warranties of fitness for a particular purpose or use. The document reflects the views only of the authors and not the official views of the Joint Undertakings nor of its public (the European Union) and private Members. The Joint Undertakings cannot be held liable for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.

4 Clean Sky 2 JU, 2020, FCH 2 JU, 2020, Printed by The Print Agency in Belgium Manuscript completed in May 2020. First edition The Joint Undertakings are not liable for any consequence stemming from any possible reuse of this publication. The reuse policy of European Commission documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU (OJ L 330, , p. 39) and applies mutatis mutandis. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020. Print ISBN 978-92-9246-341-0 EG-04-20-214-EN-C. PDF ISBN 978-92-9246-342-7 EG-04-20-214-EN-N. Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not under the copyright of Clean Sky 2 JU or FCH 2 JU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders.

5 Copyrights photographs Airbus 2020 MAVERIC, computer rendering by FIXION, photo by (title page). TU Delft Flying V, image from Edwin Wallet at OSO Studio for TU Delft (page 68). Getty Images, Inc. (title page, pages 4, 10, 14, 29, 36, 41, 50, 59, 60, 65, 67, 69, 73, 74, 84, back cover). Shutterstock, Inc. (pages 9, 33, 71). ZeroAvia converted Piper (page 22, 65). 2 Hydrogen-powered aviation | A fact-based study of hydrogen technology, economics, and climate impact by 2050. Hydrogen-powered aviation A fact-based study of hydrogen technology, economics, and climate impact by 2050. May 2020.

6 3. 4 Hydrogen-powered aviation | A fact-based study of hydrogen technology, economics, and climate impact by 2050. Executive summary Decarbonization is a major challenge for aviation . The aviation sector emits more than 900 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year. Assuming industry growth of 3 to 4 percent per annum ( ) and efficiency improvement of 2 percent , emissions would more than double by 2050. In the same time period, the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) committed to 50 percent CO2 emission reduction (compared to 2005) and the European Union (EU) set with the Green Deal a target to become carbon neutral.

7 Beyond CO2, aircraft impact the climate through emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), soot, and water vapor, which create contrails and cirrus clouds. Therefore, the full contribution to global warming is significantly higher than just CO2 emissions alone. This report assesses the potential of hydrogen (H2) propulsion H2 combustion could to reduce aviation 's climate impact. To reduce climate impact, the industry will have to introduce further levers such as radically new reduce climate technology, significantly scale sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) such as synthetic fuel (synfuel), temporarily rely on offsets in large quanti- impact ties, or rely on a combination thereof.

8 H2 propulsion is one such tech- in flight by 50 to nology, and this report assesses its potential in aviation . Developed with input from leading companies and research institutes, it 75 percent, and projects the technological development of H2 combustion and fuel fuel-cell propulsion cell-powered propulsion, evaluates their technical and economic feasibility, compares them to synfuel, and considers implications on by 75 to 90 percent. aircraft design, airport infrastructure, and fuel supply chains. The report's overall conclusion is that hydrogen propulsion has the potential to be a major part of the future propulsion technology mix.

9 As a disruptive innovation it will require significant research and development, investments, and accompanying regulation to ensure safe, economic H2 aircraft and infrastructure mastering climate impact. The findings and factors supporting this conclusion are: H2 propulsion could significantly reduce climate impact. Hydrogen eliminates CO2 emissions in flight and can be produced carbon-free. Considering also non-CO2 emissions, and taking into account the uncertainties of these effects1, the latest estimates show that H2 combustion could reduce climate impact in flight by 50 to 75. percent, and fuel-cell propulsion by 75 to 90 percent.

10 This compares to about 30 to 60 percent for synfuels. To scale H2-powered aircraft, several technological unlocks need to happen: enhancing the overall efficiency with lighter tanks (targeting 12 kWh/kg / gravimetric index of 35%) and fuel cell systems (targeting 2 kW/kg incl. cool- ing), liquid hydrogen (LH2) distribution within the aircraft, turbines capable of burning hydrogen with low-NOx emis- sions, and the development of efficient refueling technologies enabling flow rates comparable to kerosene need to be developed. Industry experts project these important advancements are possible within five to ten years.