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Impact of the Pandemic on Trade and Development

UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON Trade AND DEVELOPMENTNOVEMBER 2020 Impact of thePandemic on Trade and Development TRANSITIONING TO A NEW NORMALUNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON Trade AND DEVELOPMENTNOVEMBER 2020 Impact of thePandemic on Trade and Development TRANSITIONING TO A NEW NORMALG eneva, 20203 CONTENTSIMPACT OF THE COVID-19 Pandemic ON Trade AND Development TRANSITIONING TO A NEW NORMAL 2020, United NationsAll rights reserved worldwideRequests to reproduce excerpts or to photocopy should be addressed to the Copyright Clearance Center at other queries on rights and licences, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to: United Nations Publications405 East 42nd StreetNew York, New York 10017 United States of AmericaEmail: designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning

developing world, many of these populations are not protected by social safety nets and yet are particularly affected by soaring unemployment. The impact of the pandemic on these groups is examined with an eye to strengthening their resilience, through productive capacities, broader social protection and gender-sensitive policy responses.

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Transcription of Impact of the Pandemic on Trade and Development

1 UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON Trade AND DEVELOPMENTNOVEMBER 2020 Impact of thePandemic on Trade and Development TRANSITIONING TO A NEW NORMALUNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON Trade AND DEVELOPMENTNOVEMBER 2020 Impact of thePandemic on Trade and Development TRANSITIONING TO A NEW NORMALG eneva, 20203 CONTENTSIMPACT OF THE COVID-19 Pandemic ON Trade AND Development TRANSITIONING TO A NEW NORMAL 2020, United NationsAll rights reserved worldwideRequests to reproduce excerpts or to photocopy should be addressed to the Copyright Clearance Center at other queries on rights and licences, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to: United Nations Publications405 East 42nd StreetNew York, New York 10017 United States of AmericaEmail: designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or of any rm or licensed process does not imply the endorsement of the United publication has not been formally Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and : 978-92-1-113000-3eISBN: 978-92-1-005448-5 Sales No.

2 OF THE COVID-19 Pandemic ON Trade AND Development TRANSITIONING TO A NEW NORMALACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Trade and Development : Transitioning to a New Normal is a special 2020 publication prepared by an extended interdivisional UNCTAD team led by Mukhisa Kituyi, Secretary-General, Isabelle Durant, Deputy Secretary-General, and Daniel Owoko, Chief of Staff of the Of ce of the Secretary-General. Pamela Coke-Hamilton, former Director of the Division on International Trade and Commodities, provided extensive contributions towards the preparation of the publication. The initial interdivisional team members included Bruno Antunes, Regina Asariotis, Nour Barnat, Bob Bell Jr.

3 , Hassiba Benamara, Kristine Fitzpatrick, Torbj rn Fredriksson, Ebru G k e-Dessemond, Robert Hamwey, Poul Hansen, Jan Hoffmann, Onno Hoffmeister, Daniel Hopp, Arnau Izaguerri Vila, Kalman Kalotay, Tatiana Krylova, Henri Loumaranta, Stephen MacFeely, Vanessa McCarthy, Louis-Pierre Michaud, Teresa Moreira, Alessandro Nicita, Janvier Nkurunziza, Patrick Osakwe, Anu Peltola, Ralf Peters, Anila Premti, Divya Prabhakar, Claudia Roethlisberger, Mesut Sayg l , Abiy Solomon, Rolf Traeger, Pamela Ugaz, Thomas van Giffen, Alexey Vikhlyaev, Frida Youssef, Simonetta Zarrilli and Du an publication further gained from feedback and data contributions provided by Stephanie Blankenburg, Lyubov Chumakova, Joseph John Clements, Hamed El-Kady, ngel Gonz lez Sanz, Christian Knebel, Jing Li, Guoyong Liang, Graham Mott, Denise Penello Rial, Carlos Razo, Ian Richards, Astrit Sulstarova, Isabelle Valentiny, Thomas Verbeet, Liping Zhang and Yanchun Zhang.

4 Also acknowledged are contributions received from Fernando Cantu, Ana Cipriano, Hernan Epstein, Seul Lee and Alessandro interdivisional team participating in the preparation of the nal draft text of the publication included Christopher Garroway, J rg Mayer, Amelia Santos Paulino, Miho Shirotori and Anida Yupari Aguado. Finalization of the manuscript was in the hands of Maritza Ascencios and Deniz Barki. Nad ge Hadj mian designed the cover, gures, tables and infographics. Support from Pavel Skomorokhin and Magali Studer is also acknowledged. 5 Impact OF THE COVID-19 Pandemic ON Trade AND Development TRANSITIONING TO A NEW NORMAL1125497090110876 CONTENTSF orewordAbbreviationsIntroduction Chapter 1 COVID-19 has shaken the Trade and Development landscapeChapter 2 The Pandemic has hit the most vulnerable the hardestChapter 3 Financing the response and recovery from the Pandemic in developing countriesChapter 4 Making international production networks more resilientChapter 5 Trade as a catalyst for a fairer and greener recoveryConclusion6 CONTENTSIMPACT OF THE COVID-19 Pandemic ON Trade AND Development TRANSITIONING TO A NEW NORMALM ukhisa Kituyi Secretary-General of UNCTADFOREWORDThe COVID-19 Pandemic has gravely wounded the

5 World economy with serious consequences impacting all communities and individuals. Moving rapidly across borders, along the principal arteries of the global economy, the spread of the virus has bene ted from the underlying interconnectedness and frailties of globalization, catapulting a global health crisis into a global economic shock that has hit the most vulnerable the hardest. Emerging from the natural environment and paralyzing our societies and our economies, the coronavirus disease demonstrates the interdependence implicit in the Sustainable Development Goals, but it is derailing global efforts to achieve the virus rst began to spread and the potential repercussions for Development became apparent, we at the UNCTAD secretariat have been closely monitoring the effects of the global Pandemic on Trade and Development .

6 This report is a product of this engagement. It synthesizes the substantive analysis and dialogue that UNCTAD has undertaken around these issues across our divisions and competencies. It seeks to discern how COVID-19 is spurring on a number of trends already visible prior to the Pandemic , magnifying some obstacles, but also opening up new opportunities for Trade and the Pandemic may be far from over, it has become clear that transforming global approaches to Trade and Development cannot be avoided when charting a sustainable course to recovery from the Pandemic . This report benchmarks the expectations of UNCTAD for what a better recovery must constitute.

7 It identi es several areas where the Pandemic is accelerating trends already building up since the global nancial crisis in Trade , investment and technological change. It is our belief that recovery from the Pandemic can help reshape global production networks and reset multilateral cooperation for the better, accelerating achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. That in a nutshell is the UNCTAD de nition of the better recovery from the Pandemic called for by the United Nations as a is our hope that this better recovery can sow the seeds of a healthier, fairer and greener globalization that can be nourished by a more resilient approach to multilateralism.

8 As this report goes to press, there are growing hopes that an effective vaccine will soon be available. This is extremely welcome news. Still, if any precautions can be drawn from UNCTAD analysis of the uneven and asymmetric impacts of the Pandemic so far, the affordability of any vaccine for all of humanity should be of paramount importance. Addressing trends that were already weakening our journey towards achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development should not be lost to the community of OF THE COVID-19 Pandemic ON Trade AND Development TRANSITIONING TO A NEW NORMALABBREVIATIONSCARICOM Caribbean Community COVID-19 coronavirus disease of 2019 ESCAP Economic and social Commission for Asia and the Paci c FDI foreign direct investment GDP gross domestic product ICT information and communications technology ILO International Labour OrganizationLDC least developed country ODA of cial

9 Development assistance OECD Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development SIDS small island developing State(s) SME small and medium-sized enterprise TRAINS Trade Analysis and Information System UNWTO World Tourism Organization WTO World Trade Organization Impact OF THE COVID-19 Pandemic ON Trade AND Development TRANSITIONING TO A NEW NORMAL8 CONTENTSINTRODUCTIONS ince the outbreak of the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), more than 1 million people have lost their lives due to the Pandemic , and the global economy is expected to contract by a staggering per cent in 2020.

10 Millions of jobs have already been lost, millions of livelihoods are at risk, and an estimated additional 130 million people will be living in extreme poverty if the crisis persists. These are grim gures that re ect the immense challenges and human suffering caused by this Pandemic . Nor is an end to COVID-19 yet in sight. In many countries, the number of new COVID-19 cases is rising at an alarming rate and, for many, a second wave is already an unwelcome reality. Much uncertainty remains about how and when the Pandemic will run its course, but the unprecedented economic shock generated by the global health emergency has already sharply exposed the global economy s pre-existing weaknesses, severely setting back Development progress around the world.


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