Innovation: managing risk, not avoiding it

1 innovation : managing RISK, NOT avoiding IT. Evidence and Case Studies Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2014. innovation : managing RISK, NOT avoiding IT. Evidence and Case Studies This volume comprises chapters which form the evidence for the Government Chief Scientific Advisor's Annual Report 2014, together with illustrative case studies. It should be cited as: Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2014. innovation : managing Risk, Not avoiding It. Evidence and Case Studies. The Government Office for Science would like to thank the authors who contributed chapters, case studies and their time towards this report and gave it freely. A full list of authors can be found on pages 6-8. This report is intended for: Policy-makers, legislators, and a wide range of business people, professionals, researchers and other individuals whose interests relate to the link between risk and innovation .

2 The report project team was David Bennett, Graeme Collinson, Mike Edbury, Elizabeth Surkovic and Jack Wardle. 2. This report consists of contributions received from academia and industry and others outside of government. The views expressed do not represent policy of any government or organisation. FOREWORD. A. dvances in science and technology can yield significant societal benefits and drive economic growth. The challenge for society is to channel evidence about innovative technologies and their risks to improve decision making in the area of regulation and policy making. My annual report sets out my response as Chief Scientific Adviser to the challenges faced by decision makers when determining policy. It considers the different perspectives through which risk is viewed by members of the public, business and policy-makers.

3 The report also seeks to understand the bases for individual and collective decisions on when and how to innovate. To produce my report I have drawn on the expertise of a broad range of experts and academics, who have set out the evidence about the challenges faced by policy 3. makers and regulators. I have also sought and included notable case studies which illustrate the perspectives in the core of the report. This volume comprises that body of evidence and associated case studies. I am indebted to the authors of this volume for their contribution. The chapters and case studies represent the authors' personal views rather than those of the Government Office for Science but their wide ranging perspectives have provided important evidence for this project, and so have helped me develop the themes and conclusions of my own report.

4 Mark Walport Government Chief Scientific Adviser November 2014. 4. CONTENTS. SECTION 1: innovation AND RISK. 1. innovation , Risk And Government: Perspectives And Principles From The Social Sciences (pg. 13). 2. Future Global Trends In innovation (pg. 25). 3. A Recent Chronology Of Public Risk Management In Government (pg. 35). SECTION 2: MAKING CHOICES IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY. 4. Making Choices In The Face Of Uncertainty: Strengthening innovation Democracy (pg. 49). 5. Holding A Wider Conversation (pg. 63). 6. The Need For A Common Language (pg. 71). SECTION 3: FRAMING RISK THE HUMAN ELEMENT. 7. How People Estimate risks In Everyday Life (pg. 87). 8. Perceptions Of Risk (pg. 93). 5. SECTION 4: CONTEXT AND FUTURES. 9. Context Matters To Human Perception And Response (pg. 107). 10. managing Existential Risk From Emerging Technologies (pg.)

5 115). SECTION 5: MOVING THINGS FORWARD GOVERNANCE AND DECISION-MAKING. 11. Bringing It All Together (pg. 129). 12. Ultimately A Decision Has To Be Made (pg. 137). ANNEX: INTERNATIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS (pg. 145). REFERENCES (pg. 156). EDITOR AND CHAPTER AUTHORS. Editor Mark Peplow Chapter 1 Nicholas Stern Patel Professor of Economics and Government, London School of Economics, President of the British Academy and Director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Rodney Boyd Policy Analyst and Research Advisor to Professor Stern Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science Fergus Green Policy Analyst and Research Advisor to Professor Stern Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science Reuben Finighan Independent Consultant, Melbourne.

6 Australia Chapter 2 Ian Goldin Professor of Globalisation and Development at the University of Oxford, and Director of the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford. Chapter 3 Simon Pollard Pro-Vice-Chancellor, School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood, Cranfield University Professor of Environmental Risk Management Sophie Rocks Lecturer in Emerging risks , Cranfield University Institute for Environment, Health, risks and Futures Chapter 4 Andy Stirling Professor of Science and Technology Policy, Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) and Co-Director of the ESRC STEPS. Centre, University of Sussex 6. Chapter 5 Tim O'Riordan Emeritus Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Chapter 6 David Spiegelhalter Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk University of Cambridge Chapter 7 David Halpern Chief Executive,The Behavioural Insights Team Owain Service managing Director,The Behavioural Insights Team Chapter 8 Nick Pidgeon Professor of Environmental Psychology at Cardiff University, and Director of the Understanding Risk Research Group Karen Henwood Professor of Social Sciences at Cardiff University Chapter 9 Judith Petts Professor of Environmental Risk Management and Pro-Vice-Chancellor.

7 University of Southampton Chapter 10 Toby Ord Research Fellow in the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford Nick Beckstead Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute and the Department of Philosophy at the University of Oxford Chapter 11 Joyce Tait Professor, University of Edinburgh and Director of the Innogen Institute Chapter 12 Lisa Jardine Professor of Renaissance Studies at UCL. Former Chair of the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority CASE STUDY AUTHORS. High Level Case Studies Communicating the risk of climate change James Lyons Synthetic Biology Senior Lecturer, University of Exeter Lionel Clarke Risk and innovation in Developing Countries: A New co-Chairman UK Synthetic Biology Leadership Council Approach to Governing GM Crops Richard Kitney Phil Macnaghten Professor of BioMedical Systems Engineering at Imperial College, Professor of Geography at Durham University, and Visiting and Co-Director of The EPSRC National Centre for Synthetic Professor at University of Campinas UNICAMP, Brazil Biology and innovation and National Industrial Translation Centre Susana Carro-Ripalda for Synthetic Biology (SynBICITE) at Imperial College Senior Research Fellow at Durham University Roland Jackson Consistency and transparency in evidence-based Executive Chair of Sciencewise regulation: risk and precaution in regulation of Hydraulic Fracturing bisphenol A.

8 Stephen Elliott Patrick Miller Chief Executive, Chemical Industries Association Head of Science Strategy and Governance at the Food Standards Agency Harry Huyton Head of Climate Change, RSPB Financial Crisis Tom Sorell Robert Mair Professor of Politics and Philosophy, University of Warwick Sir Kirby Laing Professor of Civil Engineering, Cambridge University Making Choices In The Face Of Uncertainty Neonicotinoid Insecticides and Insect Pollinators Flooding Charles Godfray Edmund Penning-Rowsell Hope Professor at Oxford University and Director of the Oxford Professor of Geography at the Flood Hazard Research Centre, Martin Programme on the Future of Food Middlesex University and Distinguished Research Associate at the University of Oxford Angela McLean 7. All Souls Senior Research Fellow at Oxford University and Paul B Sayers Director of the Oxford Martin School Institute for Emerging Partner, Sayers and Partners LLP, UK and Senior Fellow, Infections Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford Nanomaterials Andrew Watkinson Kamal Hossain Professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Director, Research and International at the National Physical Anglia Laboratory and Chair of the European Metrology Research Natural Disasters and the Insurance Industry Association (EURAMET).

9 Rowan Douglas Human Rights and Risk CEO Capital Science & Policy Practice,Willis Group & Chairman, Sabine Michalowski Willis Research Network Professor of Law, University of Essex, Director of the Essex Julia Slingo Transitional Justice Network Met Office Chief Scientist Karen Hulme Trevor Maynard Professor of Law, University of Essex, Consultant with the Essex Head of Exposure Management and Reinsurance, Lloyd's of Business and Human Rights Project London Nuclear:The Submariner's Perspective innovation and Risk Rear Admiral Nigel Guild Fukushima Chairman, Engineering Council Anthony Carrigan Adapting regulation to changing evidence on risks : Lecturer in Postcolonial Literatures and Cultures at University of delivering changes to pig inspection Leeds Patrick Miller The High Value Manufacturing Catapult Head of Science Strategy and Governance at the Food Standards Dick Elsy Agency Chief Executive, High Value Manufacturing Catapult Accurate Communication of Medical Risk L'Aquila Chris Cummins Chris Whitty Chancellor's Fellow in Linguistics and English Language at the Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for International University of Edinburgh Development Marcus Besley Government Office for Science CASE STUDY AUTHORS.

10 Framing Risk The Human Element Standards: Supporting emerging technologies as an Social Machines: managing Risk in a Web Enabled accelerator of innovation World Scott Steedman Nigel Shadbolt Director of Standards, BSI. Professor of Artificial Intelligence at the University of Southampton and Chairman of the Open Data Institute, London Electronic Cigarettes:Trade-Offs and Establishing Acceptability Thresholds Fabian Schuppert Research Fellow, Institute for Collaborative Research in the Humanities at Queen's University Belfast Aum Shinrikyo and the Move to Violence Matthew Francis Senior Research Associate at Lancaster University, and Editor of Kim Knott Professor of Religious and Secular Studies at Lancaster University, and Global Uncertainties Leadership Fellow managing Risk Perception of Autonomous Technologies.