Transcription of Investor Update - glencore.com
1 Investor Update3 December 2018 Investor Update - December 20181 Important notice concerning this document including forward looking statementsThis document contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, forward looking statements which are prospective in nature. These forward looking statements may be identified by the use of forward looking terminology, or the negative thereof such as outlook , "plans", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected", "continues", "assumes", "is subject to", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "aims", "forecasts", "risks", "intends", "positioned", "predicts", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", or "believes", or variations of such words or comparable terminology and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "should", shall , "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved.
2 Forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts, but rather on current predictions, expectations, beliefs, opinions, plans, objectives, goals, intentions and projections about future events, results of operations, prospects, financial condition and discussions of strategy. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond glencore s control. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and may and often do differ materially from actual results. Important factors that could cause these uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those disclosed in glencore s 2017 Annual Report and 2018 Half-Year example, our future revenues from our assets, projects or mines will be based, in part, on the market price of the commodity products produced, which may vary significantly from current levels.
3 These may materially affect the timing and feasibility of particular developments. Other factors include (without limitation) the ability to produce and transport products profitably, demand for our products, changes to the assumptions regarding the recoverable value of our tangible and intangible assets, the effect of foreign currency exchange rates on market prices and operating costs, and actions by governmental authorities, such as changes in taxation or regulation, and political glencore nor any of its associates or directors, officers or advisers, provides any representation, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this document will actually occur.
4 You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements which only speakas of the date of this document. Except as required by applicable regulations or by law, glencore is not under any obligation and glencore and its affiliates expressly disclaim any intention, obligation or undertaking, to Update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This document shall not, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the business or affairs of glencore since the date of this document or that the information contained herein is correct as at any time subsequent to its statement in this document is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
5 This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities. The companies in which glencore plc directly and indirectly has an interest are separate and distinct legal entities. In thisdocument, glencore , glencore group and Group are used for convenience only where references are made to glencore plc and its subsidiaries in general. These collective expressions are used for ease of reference only and donot imply any other relationship between the companies. Likewise, the words we , us and our are also used to refer collectively to members of the Group or to those who work for them.
6 These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or Glasenberg- CEOI nvestor Update - December 2018 Trade/China/Macro fears have impacted financial sentiment Sector reinvestment remains limited, demand is solid, inventories are low and likely to fall further Diversified portfolio enabling transition to low carbon economy, while providing access to affordable energy Our copper, nickel and cobalt helps underpin the technologies that enable the looming energy and mobility transformation Our affordable, premium quality, high-energy thermal coal helps support ongoing economic development in Asia Cash generative business model Resilient marketing business and low-cost industrial assets underpin through the cycle free cash flow generation of $5bn to $10bn(1) Spot illustrative free cash flow generation of c.
7 $ from EBITDA of c.$ (2) Capital allocation Confidence in own business prospects and current share trading levels support near-term focus on deleveraging and shareholder returns/buybacks - $ of announced distributions/buybacks in 2018 2019 equity cash flows, post base distribution, currently prioritized for buybacks/deleveraging Financial policy Commitment to strong BBB/Baa investment grade Targeting a maximum 2x Net debt/Adjusted EBITDA through the cycle, augmented by a Net debt cap of c.$16bnInvestor Update - December 2018 Highlights3 Notes: (1) Slide 20 Illustrative spot free cash flow scenario analysis. (2) See Slide 19 for assumptions underlying spot illustrative cash flowsCommodity fundamentals still positiveDespite trade/China/Macro fearsInvestor Update - December 20184 Policy uncertainty is rising(1).
8 And trade/China/Macro fears are impacting sentiment(2)Global Economic Policy Uncertainty IndexNotes: (1) Bloomberg, Economic Policy Uncertainty Index based on Current Price GDP Weights. Long-term average = 100. (2) Bloomberg 100120140160180200220240260280300 Feb-16 Oct-16 Jun-17 Feb-18 Oct-184749515355575961 Feb-16 Oct-16 Jun-17 Feb-18 Oct-18 Euro-ZoneChinaUSAJ apanManufacturing PMI IndexCommodity fundamentals still positiveDespite trade/China/Macro fearsInvestor Update - December 20185 Sector reinvestment remains limited(1).. demand growth remains solid(2)..Sector capex ($bn)15233753414458777259423032373937353 2134442005200620072008200920102011201220 1320142015201620172018F2019F2020F2021F20 22 FNotes: (1) Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates, Morgan Stanley European Metals and Mining Tracker, 22 November 2018.
9 (2) Company sources for Nickel, Wood Mackenzie Q3 Long-term Outlooks and monthly reports for Copper, Zinc, Lead, Iron Ore, CRU for OreLeadNickelThermal CoalZinc2013-2017 CAGR2018 FAdditional 2018 capexAverage: $43bnCommodity fundamentals still positiveDespite trade/China/Macro fearsInvestor Update - December and inventories significantly reduced(1)Global inventories (rebased 100=Jan 2015)Notes: (1) Inventories comprise various sources including LME, SHFE, Comex, Chinese bonded and non-bonded, Malaysian and Singapore warehouse stocks. (2) glencore estimates for Nickel, Wood Mackenzie Q3 2018 Long-Term outlook for zinc. Wood Mackenzie November Monthly Outlook for Copper.
10 (3) See Slides 31,32,33 for underlying consumptionAverageHighLowTodayCopper1722 1212 Zinc131977 Nickel1101526666 CopperZincNickelIn 2019 continued inventory draw downs are likely(2,3)What s the minimum 2019 demand growth needed for inventory draw? CAGR Demand2018F DemandMinimum demand growth for continued inventory drawInvestor Update - December 20187 ESG UpdateSafety 12 fatalities from 11 incidents 2018 YTD Fatality reviews undertaken and key focus areas identified LTIFR increase of vs. 2017 TRIFR increase of vs. 2017 Commitment to transparency $ paid in 2017 to governments(2)support the provision of public services and infrastructure in the countries where we operate We publish payments to governments on a project-by-project basis to enable greater transparencyDiversified portfolio enabling transition to low-carbon economy while providing access to affordable energy Our copper, nickel and cobalt help underpin the technologies that enable the looming energy and mobility transformation We are a major supplier of affordable, premium quality high-energy thermal coal that will help support ongoing economic development in (27 companies)