IPCC 第5次評価報告書の概要 -WG1(自然科学的根拠)-

1 2014 IPCC 5 1 SPM TS AR5 WGI 5 SPM 1 2014 12 2 3 1 10 13 15 22 26 27 37 40 10 41 11 44 12 47 13 52 14 53 i ii iii IPCC iv v AR5 vi AR5 32 5 2 4 5 6 7 8 56 57 58 59 i.

2 IPCC 5 6 36 1 12 25 9 23 26 1 (WGI) 5 AR5 SPM 1 UNFCCC 2 i. 3 1 WGI 5 (AR5) 2007 4 1 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM ii 4 20 dominant 95 AR4 90 RCP C CO2 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 27 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 14-15 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 17 iii IPCC 5.

3 IPCC WMO UNEP 1988 3 IPCC 1 WGI 2 WGII 3 WGIII TFI iv WGI 6 1 First Assessment Report 1990(FAR) 1990 2 Second Assessment Report: Climate Change 1995(SAR) 1995 3 Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001(TAR) 2001 66 50 4 Forth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007(AR4) 2007 90 20 5 Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2013(AR5) 2013~ 14 95 20 (WGI) v AR5 7 Virtually certain 99 100% Extremely likely 95 100% Very likely 90 100% Likely 66 100% More likely than not 50 100% About as likely as not 33 66% Unlikely 0 33% Very unlikely 0 10% Extremely unlikely 0 5% Exceptionally unlikely 0 1% IPCC AR5 WGI TS Box IPCC AR5 WG1 TS Box vi AR5 8.

4 IPCC AR5 WGI TS Box IPCC AR5 WG1 TS Box IPCC AR5 WGISPM , 27 . 1850 2012 1880 2012 [ ] C 30 10 1850 10 10 1. IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 2-3 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 5-6 , IPCC AR5 WGI SPM Fig. (a) 90% 90% IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 3 1850 10 1951 2012 1998 2012 11 1998 2012 10 C 1951 2012 10 C 1. G. Meehl HP.

5 1850 2012 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 20-22 1850 1900 1950 2000 , IPCC AR5 WGI SPM Fig. (a) 11 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 18 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 19-20 ( ) 12 . HP 1898 2014 1898 2014 100 C HP . 1981 2010 1981-2010 C 1890 = C/100 5 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 1901 1951 1901 1951 . 1901 2010 1951 2010 2. IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 24-25 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 25-26 , IPCC AR5 WGI SPM Fig. 13 . HP 1898 HP . 51 mm 5 1981 2010 30 14 ( ) 1971 2010 90 1971 2010 40 60 0 700m 30 700m.

6 1971 0 700m 3. IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 2-3 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 13-14 , IPCC AR5 WGI SPM Fig. (c) 15 1971 2010 0 700m . 1971 -2010 m 1971 2010 C 3. IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 4 , IPCC AR5 WGI Fig. (c) 16 1992 2005 3000m .1992 2005 5 95 m 3. C/10 3000m IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 11-12 , IPCC AR5 WGI Fig. (a) 17 5~95% 5~95% . pH 30 pH atm(100 1 ) 3. IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 28-29 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 11-12 CO2 pH , IPCC AR5 WGI SPM Fig.

7 (b) 18 ( ) 19 + C/100 + C/100 HP . C/100 99% 95% 90% [#] ( ) 20 . , Blue Earth 2008 5-6 . 21 ( ) 2020 30 2030 2040 . 2000 2040, 2060, 2090 / 30 C Yara, Y., M. Vogt, M. Fujii, H. Yamano, C. Hauri, M. Steinacher, N. Gruber and Y. Yamanaka, 2012: Ocean acidification limits temperature-induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around Japan Biogeosciences, 9, 4955-4968.

8 Gt mm Gt mm 4. 20 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 2-3 , IPCC AR5 WGI TS Fig. 22 Errata 1. 3 4 2. 7 8 9 4. IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 3-4 , IPCC AR5 WGI SPM Fig. (a) , IPCC AR5 WGI SPM Fig. (b) 23 1980 . C 4. 10m: 15m: 20m: IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 28 , IPCC AR5 WGI Fig. 24 2012 7 JAXA HP ( ) 25 JAXA HP . 2012 7 10 15.

9 1958 40 (CO2) (CH4) (N2O) 1750 5. IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 26-28 IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 31-32 , IPCC AR5 WGI SPM Fig. (a) 26 . 1950 / 10 90 6. >99%, >90%, >66%, >50% IPCC AR5 WGI SPM , 11-13 27 , IPCC AR5 WGI SPM Table IPCC AR5 WGI AnnexIII:Glossary.

10 1950 1970 1970 6. >99%, >90%, >66%, >50% 28 , IPCC AR5 WGI SPM Table ( ) . HP 29 1 50mm 80mm HP . 1 50mm, 80mm 1,000 AMeDAS Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System HP Box HP HP ( ) . 2013 30 35 C 1931 2013 2013.