第Ⅲ章 需要予測 - jadc.jp

1 III 1 III III 2 III III 1 1. (JADC) III 3 2. III 4 3. III 5 4. III 6 5. III 7 6. III 8 (1) III 8 (2) III 9 (3) III 10 7. (JADC) III 11 III 3 1. (JADC) (2018 3 010,00020,00030,00040,00020172037 39,867 22,337 17,530 16,000 6,337 33,530 52%48% 984 4 2,250 499 613 99 11,845 3,874 2,393 800 1,638 488 2,223 458 391 115 113 2,794 1,789 13,056 6,850 4,887 3,797 244 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0001 6,00018,0002017 20372017 20372017 20372017 20372017 20372017 20372017 20372017 2037 984 117 2,250 3,293 613 1,888 11,845 16,930 2,393 7,650 1,638 5,375 2,223 4,255 391 359 20-59 60-99 100-119 120-169 170-229 230-309 310-399 400 2017 22,337 2037 39,867 2018-2037 33,530 III 4 2017 6 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0001 6,00018.)

2 000199620012006201120162021202620312036 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 BOEING Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 10 2,480 2,600 31,050 32,190 5,140 5,710 3,560 3,420 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0 002016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 20 BOEING 2016 2017 2016 2035 42,2302017 2036 43,920 2,380 2,370 28,140 29,530 4,720 5,050 3,450 3,160 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0 002016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 20 BOEING 2016 2017 2016 2016-2035 38,6902017 2017 -2036 40,110 III 5 . 2017 6 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0001 6,00018,00019962001200620112016202120262 0312036 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 AIRBUS AIRBUS Global Market Forecast 10 377084012005,00010,00015,00020,00025,000 30,00035,00040,00045,0002016 2017 20 AIRBUS 2016 2017 100 37,70840,1202016 2035 2017 2036 1,303 1,297 2,899 3,157 6,864 7,404 8,304 8,353 4,161 4,596 2,368 2,694 2,687 2,789 1,512 1,566 1,066 1,126 1,264 1,184 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,00 09,0002016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 20 AIRBUS 2016 2017 2012 100 2016 2016-2035 32,428 2017 2017 -2036 34.

3 166 100 125 150 175 210 2 250 2 300 2 350 2 400 450 III 6 2017 9 2016 2015 2017 6,900 8,100 6,950 7,300 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,00 09,00060-99 100-150 20 Bombardier 2015 / 2017 2015 2034 15,300 2017 2036 15,000 Bombardier 2015 (60 99 ) (100 150 ) 5,700 7,000 5750680001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007 ,0008,00060-99 100-150 20 Bombardier 2015 / 2017 2015 2015-2034 12,700 2017 2017 -2036 12,550 Bombardier 2015 (60 99 ) (100 150 ) III 7 2017 6 RPK 2016 2016-2035 / 2017 2017 -2036 / 6,6906,710 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002016 2017 20 Embraer ) 2016 / 2017 2016 2035 70-130 Jet 6,690 2017 2036 70-130 Jet 6,710 2017 Embraer 70-130 Jet 70-130 2,3002,2804,1004,12002,0004,0006,0002016 2017 2016 2017 20 Embraer )

4 2016 / 2017 2016 2016-2035 70-130 Jet 6,400 2017 2017 -2036 70-130 Jet 6,400 2017 Embraer 70-130 Jet 70-90 90-130 III 8 1 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0001 6,00018,00020,00019972002200720122017202 2202720322037 JADC ' '17 '17 RPK 10 3,410 2,600 1,888 16,930 32,190 7,650 5,375 5,710 4,255 3,420 359 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0 0040,00045,000 JADC('18-3) BOEING('17-6) AIRBUS('17-6) (20 20-99 100-119 120-169 170-229 230-309 400 310-399 39,867 43,920 40,120 (2036 (2036 (2037 2017 AIRBUS 100 2,907 2,370 1,789 1,297 13,056 29,530 10,561 6,850 12,949 4,887 5,050 5,483 3,797 3,160 2,692 244 1,184 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0 0040,00045,000 JADC('18-3) BOEING('17-6) AIRBUS('17-6) 20 20-99 100-119 120-169 170-229 230-309 310-399 33,530 34,166 2018-20372017-20362017-2036175 /210 100 125 /150 250 /300 350 /400 400 40,110 AIRBUS 100 III 9 2 1,603 2,029 3,293 6,950 1,888 7,300 6,710 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0001 6,00018,000 JADC ('18-3 )Bombardier ('17-9 )Embraer ('17-6 )))))

5 20 60 TP60-99 JET 8,813 14,250 70-130 JET6,710 100-150 JET59 JET&TP)100-119 JET2036 2037 2036 60-99 JET&TP(Bombardier 60 )(Embraer 70 JET ) 1,266 1,414 2,280 2,794 5,750 1,789 6,800 4,120 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000 JADC ('18-3 )Bombardier ('17-9 )Embraer ('17-6 ) 20 59 60-99 JET&TP 7,263 60-99 JET60 TP12,550 2018-20372017-20362017-20366,400 70-90 JET90-130 JET100-150 JET100-119 JET(Bombardier 60 )(Embraer 70 JET ) III 10 3 RTK) RTK Revenue Ton Km JADC 2018 )2018-2037 2017 2017 -2036 ( 2017 ) 2017 -2036 856 1,250 946 1,780 1,149 2,951 3,030 2,410 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500 JADC(2037 )Boeing(2036 )Airbus(2036 ) 0 0 0 520 430 390 528 490 343 1,048 920 733 02004006008001,0001,200 JADC(2018-2037 )Boeing( 2017 -2036 )Airbus( 2017 -2036 ) 70ton 70ton 70ton 40-70ton 40-70ton 40-70ton 50ton 50ton 80ton 40-80ton 40ton 40ton 45ton 45ton 80ton 80ton 30-80ton 10-30ton 30-80ton 494 853 1,100 560 270 460 353 170 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800 JADC(2018-2037 )Boeing( 2017 -2036 )Airbus( 2017 -2036 ) 50ton 40-70ton 70ton 40-120ton 45ton 80ton 30-80ton 10-30ton1,476 1,560 1,224 (Airbus ) III 11 (JADC 2018 3 ( )

6 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0 00199720022007201220172022202720322037 AirlinerLong RangeLargeSuper MidsizeMidsizeLightVery Light 30,221 20,502 14,480 8,180 1,233 909 6,508 2,208 4,915 2,089 3,375 1,539 762 220 3,122 1,484 587 278 1,741 5,114 2,803 5,253 15 6,235 333 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002017 2037 2017 2037 2017 2037 2017 2037 2017 2037 2017 2037 2017 2037 Very LightLightMidsizeSuper MidsizeLargeLong RangeAirliners 7,322 2,650 4,892 6,792 235 7,719 611 2017 20,502 2037 30,221 2018 2037 21,494 2017 2037 ( ) Flight Global II 4