Linking Study Report: Predicting Performance on the South ...

1 Linking Study Report: Predicting Performance on the South Carolina college -and Career-Ready Assessments (SC READY) based on NWEA MAP Growth Scores July 2020 NWEA Psychometric Solutions 2020 NWEA. NWEA and MAP Growth are registered trademarks of NWEA in the and in other countries. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be modified or further distributed without written permission from NWEA. Suggested citation: NWEA. (2020). Linking Study report: Predicting Performance on the South Carolina college -and Career-Ready Assessments (SC READY) based on NWEA MAP Growth scores. Portland, OR: Author. Linking Study : Predicting Performance on SC READY from MAP Growth Page 3 Table of Contents Executive Summary.

2 4 1. Introduction .. 7 Purpose of the Study .. 7 Assessment Overview .. 7 2. Methods .. 8 Data Collection .. 8 Post-Stratification Weighting .. 8 MAP Growth Cut Scores .. 8 Classification Accuracy .. 9 Proficiency Projection .. 10 3. Results .. 11 Study Sample .. 11 Descriptive Statistics .. 13 MAP Growth Cut Scores .. 14 Third Grade Retention .. 17 Classification Accuracy .. 17 Proficiency Projection .. 18 References .. 27 List of Tables Table Description of Classification Accuracy Summary Statistics .. 10 Table Linking Study Sample Demographics (Unweighted) .. 11 Table Spring 2017 SC READY Student Population Demographics .. 12 Table Linking Study Sample Demographics (Weighted).

3 13 Table Descriptive Statistics of Test Scores .. 14 Table MAP Growth Cut Scores ELA/Reading .. 15 Table MAP Growth Cut Scores Mathematics .. 16 Table MAP Growth score Predictions for Level 1 Sublevels ELA/Reading .. 17 Table Classification Accuracy Results .. 18 Table Proficiency Projection based on RIT Scores ELA/Reading .. 19 Table Proficiency Projection based on RIT Scores Mathematics .. 23 Linking Study : Predicting Performance on SC READY from MAP Growth Page 4 Executive Summary To predict student achievement on the South Carolina college -and Career-Ready Assessments (SC READY) in Grades 3 8 English Language Arts (ELA) and Mathematics, NWEA conducted a Linking Study using Spring 2017 data to derive Rasch Unit (RIT) cut scores on the MAP Growth assessments that correspond to the SC READY Performance levels.

4 With this information, educators can identify students at risk of failing to meet state proficiency standards early in the year and provide tailored educational interventions. The Linking Study has been updated since the previous version published in February 2018 to incorporate the new 2020 NWEA MAP Growth norms (Thum & Kuhfeld, 2020). Table presents the SC READY Meets Expectations Performance level cut scores and the corresponding MAP Growth RIT cut scores that allow teachers to identify students who are on track for proficiency on the state summative test and those who are not. For example, the Meets Expectations cut score on the SC READY Grade 3 ELA test is 452. A Grade 3 student with a MAP Growth Reading RIT score of 194 in the fall is likely to meet proficiency on the SC READY ELA test in the spring, whereas a Grade 3 student with a MAP Growth Reading RIT score lower than 194 in the fall is in jeopardy of not meeting proficiency.

5 MAP Growth cut scores for Grade 2 are also provided so educators can track early learners progress toward proficiency on the SC READY test by Grade 3. These cut scores were derived based on the Grade 3 cuts and the 2020 NWEA growth norms for the adjacent grade ( , Grades 2 to 3). Table MAP Growth Cut Scores for SC READY Proficiency Meets Expectations Cut Scores by Grade Assessment 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ELA/Reading SC READY Spring 452 509 558 576 615 643 MAP Growth Fall 182 194 205 214 217 223 225 Winter 190 201 210 218 220 225 227 Spring 194 204 212 219 221 226 228 Mathematics SC READY Spring 438 482 536 543 578 615 MAP Growth Fall 176 189 203 215 218 228 236 Winter 185 197 210 221 223 232 239 Spring 190 202 214 225 226 235 241 Please note that the results in this report may differ from those found in the NWEA reporting system for individual districts.

6 The typical growth scores from fall to spring or winter to spring used in this report are based on the default instructional weeks most commonly encountered for each term ( , Weeks 4, 20, and 32 for fall, winter, and spring, respectively). However, instructional weeks often vary by district, so the cut scores in this report may differ slightly from the MAP Growth score reports that reflect spring instructional weeks set by partners. Linking Study : Predicting Performance on SC READY from MAP Growth Page 5 Assessment Overview The SC READY in Grades 3 8 ELA and Mathematics are South Carolina s state summative assessments aligned to the South Carolina college -and Career-Ready Standards. Based on their test scores, students are placed into one of four Performance levels: Does Not Meet Expectations, Approaches Expectations, Meets Expectations, and Exceeds Expectations.

7 These tests are used to provide evidence of student achievement in ELA and Mathematics for various test score uses such as meeting the requirements of the state s accountability program. The Meets Expectations cut score demarks the minimum level of achievement considered to be proficient. MAP Growth tests are adaptive interim assessments aligned to state-specific content standards and administered in the fall, winter, and spring. Scores are reported on the RIT vertical scale with a range of 100 350. Linking Methods Based on scores from the Spring 2017 test administration, the equipercentile Linking method was used to identify the spring MAP Growth scores that correspond to the spring SC READY Performance level cut scores.

8 Spring cuts for Grade 2 were derived based on the cuts for Grade 3 and the 2020 NWEA growth norms. MAP Growth fall and winter cut scores that predict proficiency on the spring SC READY test were then projected using the 2020 NWEA growth norms that provide expected score gains across test administrations. Student Sample Only students who took both the MAP Growth and SC READY assessments in Spring 2017 were included in the Study sample. Table presents the weighted number of South Carolina students from 21 districts and 292 schools who were included in the Linking Study . The Linking Study sample is voluntary and can only include student scores from partners who share their data. Also, not all students in a state take MAP Growth.

9 The sample may therefore not represent the general student population as well as it should. To ensure that the Linking Study sample represents the state student population in terms of race, sex, and Performance level, weighting ( , a statistical method that matches the distributions of the variables of interest to those of the target population) was applied to the sample. As a result, the RIT cuts derived from the Study sample can be generalized to any student from the target population. All analyses in this Study for Grades 3 8 were conducted based on the weighted sample. Table Linking Study Sample #Students Grade ELA/Reading Mathematics 3 15,015 15,019 4 16,185 16,282 5 15,777 15,790 6 15,317 15,365 7 14,911 14,966 8 14,244 14,117 Linking Study : Predicting Performance on SC READY from MAP Growth Page 6 Test score Relationships Correlations between MAP Growth RIT scores and SC READY scores range from to across both content areas, as shown in Figure These values indicate a strong relationship among the scores, which is important validity evidence for the claim that MAP Growth scores are good predictors of Performance on the SC READY assessments.

10 Figure Correlations between MAP Growth and SC READY Accuracy of MAP Growth Classifications Figure presents the classification accuracy statistics that show the proportion of students correctly classified by their RIT scores as proficient or not proficient on the SC READY tests. For example, the MAP Growth Reading Grade 3 Meets Expectations cut score has a accuracy rate, meaning it accurately classified student achievement on the state test for 85% of the sample. The results range from to across both content areas, indicating that RIT scores have a high accuracy rate of identifying student proficiency on the SC READY tests. Figure Accuracy of MAP Growth Classifications Linking Study : Predicting Performance on SC READY from MAP Growth Page 7 1.