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Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study - DHL | Global

Logistics 2050A Scenario StudyDELIVERINGTOMORROWL ogistics 2050A Scenario StudyPUBLISHERD eutsche Post AG, Headquarters represented by Dr. Christof E. Ehrhart, Executive Vice President Corporate Communications 53250 Bonn, GermanyPROJECT DIRECTORDr. Jan Dietrich M ller,Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AGPROJECT MANAGEMENT AND EDITORIAL OFFICEJ ohannes Oppolzer,Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AGART DIRECTIONKai KullenSCENARIO PROCESS AND REALIZATIONZ_punkt The Foresight Company, CologneCOVER IMAGEA drian FrutigerEDITORIAL SUPPORTKeir Bonine, Communication Resources bvbaTRANSLATIONAnke BrysonPRINT COORDINATIONM anfred T.

Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 9 4 “When5 frequent catastrophes lead to a paradigm shift away from efficiency maximization to vulnerability mitigation

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Transcription of Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study - DHL | Global

1 Logistics 2050A Scenario StudyDELIVERINGTOMORROWL ogistics 2050A Scenario StudyPUBLISHERD eutsche Post AG, Headquarters represented by Dr. Christof E. Ehrhart, Executive Vice President Corporate Communications 53250 Bonn, GermanyPROJECT DIRECTORDr. Jan Dietrich M ller,Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AGPROJECT MANAGEMENT AND EDITORIAL OFFICEJ ohannes Oppolzer,Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AGART DIRECTIONKai KullenSCENARIO PROCESS AND REALIZATIONZ_punkt The Foresight Company, CologneCOVER IMAGEA drian FrutigerEDITORIAL SUPPORTKeir Bonine, Communication Resources bvbaTRANSLATIONAnke BrysonPRINT COORDINATIONM anfred T.

2 Rehberg, Williams Lea GmbH1. Edition February 2012 Deutsche Post AG, Bonn, GermanyISBN 978-3-920269-54-2 To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect. Oscar Wilde, 1854 1900 Irish poet, novelist, and playwrightContentsImpressions 8 Introduction 10 Executive Summary 121 Inception 22 On Looking into the Futures 22 by Professor James Allen Dator Winning in an Uncertain Future Through Scenario Planning 27 by Peter Schwartz 2 Imagination 34 The Project 34 The Futures 36 Scenario 1: Untamed Economy Impending Collapse 36 Scenario 2: Mega-efficiency in Megacities 50 Scenario 3: Customized Lifestyles 66 Scenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism 80 Scenario 5.

3 Global Resilience Local Adaptation 92 The Methodology: Taking a Closer Look 104 The Experts 11273 Issues 114 The Future of Secure Communications in the Age of the Internet 114 by J rgen Gerdes Beyond Double-Digit Growth: Perspectives for Sustained Prosperity in Asia 120 by Jerry Hsu Why I Believe in a Bright Future for Africa 127 by Amadou Diallo vulnerability and Security in the 21st Century 132 by Professor Herfried M nkler The Future Belongs to Renewable Energies 138 Interview with Professor Klaus T pfer 4 Implications 144 Mapping a Decarbonization Path for Logistics 144 by Professor Alan McKinnon Towards a More Robust Global Trade Environment 150 by Roger Crook Catering to Our Customers Future Needs 155 by Rob Siegers

4 The Logistics of the Future: Revolutionary Changes or the Development of Trusted Solutions? 160 by Petra Kiwitt and Steffen Frankenberg 5 Intelligence 166 Recrafting Scenario Practice to Achieve Robust Long-Term Decisions 166 by Robert Lempert and Johanna Zmud Corporate Strategy in the Face of Volatility 173 by Jan Thido Karlshaus and Markus Reckling Acknowledgements 180 Contents 8 Delivering Tomorrow InterconnectedImpressions Five Visions of the Future132 When the world is driven by materialism and faces frequent natural disasters When megacities become epicenters of green growth When

5 Individualization becomes pervasive and 3D printing dominates manufacturing and households MaterialismUrban-rural divideTechnologyUrbanMegacitiesSupergrid Urban congestionPollutionClimate change Arctic miningNatural disasters Resource exploitation Asia Free trade Rising incomesConsumptionUnsustainable growth DematerializationFabShopsHome fabbing3D printingGlobal hubsCity logisticsRent-and-useAutomationRoboticsE fficiencyRegional tradeInternet securityDigital piracyDecentralizedConsumptionUnique lifestylesProgressAffluenceProsumerCreat ivityCustomizedIndividualizationWealthGr een growthVirtual reality9 Logistics 2050.

6 A Scenario Study45 When frequent catastrophes lead to a paradigm shift away from efficiency maximization to vulnerability mitigation and resilience. When globalization is reversed and protectionist barriers are raised SustainabilityInterconnectedClimate changeAutomationNationalized logisticsEnergy securityCustoms delaysReuse and repairSecurityStagnationInternational conflictResource scarcityProductivity declineAgeing societiesFragmentationRegional blocsNationalismProtectionistContraction International collaborationRegional tradeSupply securityFlexible technologyDecentralized solutionsBackup infrastructureRedundant systemsResilienceSupply disruptionDisaster

7 ResponseDisastersVulnerabilityEmergency logisticsAutomationEfficiencyWealthGreen growthCollaborationVirtual reality 10 Delivering Tomorrow Dear Reader, How does one shed light into the black box we call the future? Today s complex economic and political landscape renders ac-curate forecasts virtually impossible. In our volatile and connected world, traditional, linear forms of analysis have repeatedly proven wrong. They, alone, simply aren t enough to help us anticipate and prepare for change. In the search for robust strategies, we need to widen our perspec-tive, think in alternatives and consider different paths leading into different futures.

8 With this in mind, Deutsche Post DHL, the world s leading mail and Logistics Group, has prepared another issue of our pioneering Delivering Tomorrow series: namely, a Scenario Study on Logistics 2050. This latest publication presents five far-ranging, at times even radical visions of life in the year 2050 and their implications for the Logistics industry. It is important to keep in mind, however, that none of these sce-narios reflects our definite view of how the future will, in fact, de-velop. But knowing our limits should not prevent us from stretch-ing our imagination and considering what might transpire.

9 The scenarios were derived by observing the key influencing forces around us, such as trade and consumption patterns, technological developments or climate change and considering how they drive behaviors and shape values. This exercise helps us plausibly sketch out different shapes that our future could take. By covering a comprehensive spectrum in the space of future possibilities, such Introduction11 Logistics 2050. A Scenario Studyalternative visions help us to sense a shifting environment much better than any extrapolation of isolated trends could do.

10 However, assessing the future is a complex and multi-faceted undertaking. That s why we have invited renowned academics and distinguished experts from a variety of fields and disciplines to provide valuable insights for the scenarios . We have asked them to share their views and analysis of the trends most likely to influence the world and our industry in the years to come, including any rel-evant economic, societal, political, technological or environmental ramifications. This valuable input formed a sound basis for the creation of our five future from the scenarios , we have also included a variety of thought-provoking essays from distinguished contributors.


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