MMRC DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES 地球温暖化問題に対する …

1 Manufacturing Management Research Center ( mmrc ) mmrc DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES No. 551 2022 2 1 A note on the "all-out mobilization" for the automobile-related global warming problem: fallacy of the "electric-vehicle-only" argument 2 CO2 (BEV) CO2 CO2 CO2 1 km/ 1km CO2 g km 8,000 CO2 6,000 CO2 1 2030 20% 2000 BEV 2030 3 2020 BEV 500 700 900 1100 600 700 2,100 2.

2 400 2020 BEV BEV BEV BEV BEV BEV CO2 BEV BEV Abstract: In this article, as a part of the global warming problem, we consider measures to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) generated by automotive driving. We will pay a special attention to the possibility of rapid diffusion of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which have attracted popular attention in recent years, investigating whether it can contribute to our overall purpose of reducing total CO2 emissions, as well as its limitations.

3 For this purpose, we apply a rough-cut estimation model of CO2 emission from certain number of vehicles in operation with some simplified assumptions. First, for a given vehicle type, by applying the basic formula of "annual CO2 generation amount = number of vehicles in operation x average annual distance driven per vehicle (km/vehicle-year) x average CO2 generation amount per km (g/km)," the amount of CO2 generated from all automobiles in operation in Japan (about 80 million units), or about 180 million tons per year, is approximated. Next, we also roughly estimated how BEVs, hybrid vehicles (HEVs), and conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) may contribute to the overall goal of reducing annual CO2 emissions from the passenger cars in Japan (approximately 100 million tons from 60 million vehicles) by more than 20% (20 million tons) by 2030.

4 Our forecast results will vary depending on the composition of the abovementioned three vehicle types in 2030, as well as their improvements in fuel efficiency, but in the 2020s, it is estimated that BEV's contribution may be 5 to 7 million tons, HEVs 9 to 11 million tons, and ICEVs 6 to 7 million tons, by which the total reduction may reach 21 to 24 million tons. This calculation reveals that BEV's contribution as long-term global warming countermeasures, including the period of the 2020s, is certainly significant, but BEV alone cannot not achieve our overall CO2 reduction target. Therefore, we conclude that the "BEV only theory" (the argument that relies only on the rapid diffusion of BEVs and denies all other means), which has been active in recent years internationally, is not logically correct, and that " all-out mobilization theory" that tries to mobilize all possible measures, including BEVs, HEVs and even advanced ICEVs, is more rational for achieving our overall goal.

5 We also discuss the misunderstandings ( , confusion of objectives and means, time lags between vehicle production and population share increases, unilateral production target settings not based on effective demand, and disadvantages of current BEVs themselves) and the ploy aspects of automotive industry policies of each country ( , Europe, the United States, and China), explaining partly why such "fallacy of the BEV only theory" occurs. Keywords: global warming, automobile industry, reduction of CO2 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEV), all-out war theory, BEV only theory 3 1. CO2 CO2 Battery Electric Vehicle; BEV 2020 2020 10 CO2 CO2 2020 1 2030 8.

6 000 BEV BEV CO2 BEV BEV 1 BEV BEV BEV BEV ZEV BEV 2 2020 SDGs 17 1 2021 2021 1 18 2035 100% BEV HEV PHEV FCEV BEV 2 ZEV Zero Emission Vehicle BEV FCEV PHEV 1990 ZEV ZEV ZEV NEV 4 ESG CO2 4 3 90% CO2 CO2 LCA Life Cycle Assessment CO2

7 CO2 CO2 Tank-to-Wheel Well-to-Wheel 3 CO2 2018 335 2021 40% 3% 10 5 EU CO2 2010 CO2 2 8,000 CO2 CO2 9 2020 3% 14 CO2 335 2 60 70 4 CO2 CO2 WTLC JC08 CO2 5 3 BEV CO2 2 10 km BEV LCA CO2 2019 4 2018 2021 2019 2004 2021 2021 Global Carbon Project 2020 5 MOTA J 08 21km/L 20% 21km/L 20%

8 16km/L 40% 5 2020 2 60 CO2 CO2 2 CO2 300 1% CO2 CO2 3 14 3 4 3 CO2 CO2 CO2 SDGs 17 21 SDGs SDGs CO2 2.

9 CO2 2 BEV 20 2021 26 COP26 21 2 COP 2040 50 6 CO2 COP agreement of goals agreement of means BEV 2020 BEV Battery Electric Vehicle.

10 BEV 6 BEV EU 1 BEV 21 2020 10 BEV CO2 6 Zero Emission Vehicle BEV FCEV ZEV BEV BEV BEV Zero Emission Vehicle CO2 7 7 3.